OT: David Bishop email 2

Hi,

Today, there is beginning to be hope as state, local and federal authorities are waking up to the extreme dangers we face from an unseen, untested-for virus. In a couple of weeks we may finally have robust testing.

Meanwhile, we all need to immediately exercise extreme social distancing.

Some new, recently published data tells us why.

1 The first paper (see attached: Presymptomatic?) - A mathematical analysis - shows that the outbreak in Singapore caused by travellers from Wuhan China had an incubation period of ~7 days between infection and symptoms, but the infected people were apparently transmitting it to others for about 3 days before they noticed symptoms. 2 Similarly, in this same paper, the outbreak in Tianjin, China which was traced back to one department store in that city of 11 million had an incubation time of 9 days, and transmission to others also for about 3 days prior to their experiencing symptoms. 3 The second paper (see attached: Asymptomatic?) in the highly respected ?New England Journal of Medicine? shows that for 114 Germans who were flown from Wuhan China to Germany after showing no symptoms, 2 (a 58 and a 44 year old male and female, respectively) tested positive upon landing and both remained without symptoms for the following 7 days in isolation, although their throat swabs upon landing contained virus which was viable and infected test cells.

These results clearly prove that individuals showing no symptoms are likely present everywhere outbreaks are occurring. This is why we must practice social distancing now to stop the cycle of exponential spread since it has been shown that every infected individual infects on average 2 or more additional people.

See the following simulation for why Social distancing works.

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Or, appreciate that: because people are infectious before they have symptoms, and young people may never have symptoms, the virus can spread throughout the entire US before people start dying by the thousands. By staying at home now, this rapid spread is prevented and testing can be ramped up in the next two-three weeks, hospitals can get more protective equipment and ventilators, and drive-through testing centres can be built. Buying time like this will save lives!

Please practice extreme social distancing now for the best outcome and fewest deaths - because if we do not overwhelm the healthcare system the death rate will be more like the 1% in South Korea instead of the

4%+ in China and maybe 10% elsewhere. As Dr. Faucci showed on his chart on TV, even at a 1% death rate, if 50% of the US is infected, that is 1.5 million deaths. (And if it is the International average of 4%, it is 6 million deaths!)

Stay safe!

David Bishop