OT: An Electric Vehicle Owner Speaks Out...

[Rod Speed]

So nothing to do with his previous actions of trying to flee justice.

[The Natural Philosopher]

Why did you completely ignore the post which you responded to? Cognitive dissonance?

[Colin Bignell]

It is everything to do with it. Most people would be out on bail instead. However, having broken his previous bail conditions, first he was tried for that offence and sentenced to 50 weeks imprisonment. When that ended, he was remanded in custody precisely because he had proven that he was a flight risk. The length of time held on remand is a factor of the complexity of the extradition process.

[Rod Speed]

Bullshit.

50 weeks is f*ck all of the FIVE YEARS

[Colin Bignell]

It is nearly 20% of it and he could have been out on bail, had he not skipped bail before. It is all his own fault.

[Rod Speed]

Like I said, f*ck all.

Bullshit a stupid 5 year delay is.

[Paul]

Look at the graph, spot the patterns.

There aren't really a lot of differences between BEV and ICE/PHEV. You can waste money on expensive ones if you want. Bloodbath.

The cars "last ten years", in the sense that maintenance is low for at least the first ten years. BEV cars that were poorly designed and sit dead-in-the-drive today, will be the subject of a class action, the class action may decide what the penalty for failing to support a warranty will be. (Battery pack is supposed to be replaced under warranty, company "does not want to".) These were cars without active cooling of the battery pack.

The battery pack presents a problem for either trade-in value at the ten year mark, or the "street price" if you try to sell it privately. Buyer and seller don't know what the battery pack holds in the future, for the used-buyer.

On an ICE, between 10 years and 20 years tow-to-junkyard, you can spend as much on repairs, as the original purchase price of the car. Automatic transmissions always need to be replaced (manuals, not so much). The PHEV should have more repairs just because of the additional amount of components.

Could a BEV last past 20 years, for the basic platform ? This seems unlikely when an engineer can run a finger across a table, and select components that will be mushy at the 20 year mark. Consumer automobiles will never be constructed with the same care as public transit buses (aluminium upper, steel lower). Virtually every transit bus has rotting suspension. But on the uppers, you can have rust free viewing out the window of a bus.

The BEV then, the owners collectively might have to pay for one or two battery packs, before the car-lowers are rusted out.

If you use the above graph, and select a bargain vehicle with a seemingly unusually long range, your next step would be determining whether the range rating is "real" or not. Your battery pack conservation strategy, your penalty for cold weather come out of that excess of range. And that determines whether a reasonably priced BEV could ever function as a city car at least.

The after-market parts industry, is lacking for BEV. It's not mature. With after-market, we could have competition on battery pack replacement price. This could make quite a difference to the current lumpy behavior financially at trade-in time. The buyer still has to "time" the battery replacement, because replacement packs will not be available in year 19.

Our future hinges on the construction of battery plants. So that CATL does not corner the market.

The truck example I found, shows how you can have fast charging. And range (vehicle has multiple tray-mounted packs). That does not mean it's affordable to *buy* packs to fill the vehicle. But it might mean you could *rent* packs for a long trip. You could drive a vehicle like that around the city with only one pack in the tray thing.

It's early times for BEV, and still room for improvement and maturing. Would you ever expect first generation technology to be a winner from the get-go ? I wouldn't. You'll remember a time when an ICE car, wouldn't idle properly. On really early cars, there was no synchromesh when you shifted. On a modern ICE, when was the last time you worried about idle behavior ? They fixed it. It took decades. But they fixed it across the fleet. No more manual choke knobs. They fixed windshield wipers. It took decades. But they fixed it. You can drive a car 20 years, without replacing a wiper motor. It doesn't even rust where the wiper motor fastens to the car. Can you drive an ICE for 20 years without three alternators. NO! Still not fixed.

The vulture capitalism around BEVs right now, is the single biggest impediment. The automotive companies are not on a mission to cure cancer. They just want the money thanks. Competition is what will pistol whip these idiots back into their seats. The Chinese are coming. Then we'll see if they really have engineering talent or not (to compete with the Chinese).

Will the Chinese arrive, before the cutoff date for all-BEV sales ? That's a political decision. I bet the Chinese car companies will be ready for that date. They'll have the product. And not with a ten year loan to pay for it.

But as it currently stands, with a lot of gaming going on, I don't expect anything "rational" to happen. What happens today, is whatever the game fixers decide. Until they're kicked to the curb. It's like when I pay too much today for a loaf of bread. Do I lament "oh, bread is so f****ng expensive, who thought that a few grains of wheat would cost so much" ? Will the price fixers *ever* be punished. There's no Chinese bread on offer. The bread companies do not compete with one another. They were *caught* price fixing (evidence trail). And they still seem to be doing it. Because they know (demonstrated) that the law is toothless.

The single biggest impediment to a transition, is weak-kneed behavior on the drop-dead date for the transition. If they selected 2035, they must stick to it. If they don't stick to it, by induction, they can go to their next conference of world leaders and say "we are not participating, sorry". You only get one chance to establish a drop-dead date. Because all the gamers know, when push comes to shove, you will just push the date out again.

The product COULD be better. Just a question of applying the right degree of pain. The price of battery packs is falling. Does the price of cars carefully track this trend ? No ? My surprised face.

Paul

[Cursitor Doom]

[Colin Bignell]

In round figures, the first year was when he was imprisoned after having been found guilty of breaking his bail conditions. The second year was due to Covid restrictions shutting down much of the justice system. The next year was spent in considering his extradition and the last two years have been spent by his lawyers fighting the decision to extradite. He probably can't beheld responsible for Covid, but being held on remand for four years after his prison sentence is definitely down to his previous behaviour.

[Rod Speed]

Only if you are very unlucky or very stupid.

Bullshit.

Not at all in fact.

Mindlessly simplistic.

[Rod Speed]

Still a stupid amount of time and clearly not all his fault.

Bullshit.

[Colin Bignell]

...

They are easily checked facts.

The decision was made in 2021. He could have been out of the country within 28 days of that, had there not been any appeals.

[Colin Bignell]

Initially, it succeeded, but, in 2021, the Westminster Magistrate's Court was directed by the High Court to refer the matter to the Secretary of State, following an appeal by and assurances from the USA:

This is the current the current judgment on the case:

[Rod Speed]

The courts that decide that stuff were not shut down for a year.

Of course there were appeals when he did no crime in the USA.

[Rod Speed]

They tried that much later than 2021

Irrelevant to the question of whether they have failed to stop him being extradited..

[Joe]

Hey, the man who is fit to be President of the USA has been found unfit to stand trial...

[Colin Bignell]

The Constitution Committee report on the effect of Covid on the Justice system concluded that the lower Courts (which includes the Westminster Magistrate's Court) experienced the greatest difficulty in adapting to new procedures to meet the demands of Covid. They didn't shut down, but big backlogs built up, which delayed a lot of cases.

[Rod Speed]

Bullshit

[Rod Speed]

That isnt what decided whether Assange got to be extradited.

That isnt what decided whether Assange got to be extradited.

[Joe]

A court's decision. Semantically equivalent in many cases.