Fully Electric Car available soon

[Sylvain VAN DER WALDE]

A French electric car has the battery pack _on hire_ from the manufacturer. You don't buy it. Is that the way to go here?

Sylvain.

[Dave Plowman (News)]

Only if the manufacturer subsidises the cost. Hiring can never be cheaper than buying, as an average, in the long term.

[Ron Lowe]

The big problem with rechargeable cars is the length of time required to give a full re-charge. You can fully re-fuel an IC vehicle in minutes. I can see this being a bigger problem in the US, where people think nothing about driving hundreds of miles in a day.[1] Re-fueling stops will not neccesarily co-incide with convenient overnight stops!

I really can't imagine any battery charging process in the near future that can transfer energy anything like as quickly as pumping hydrocarbon fuel.

The only realistic solution I can see is having standardised battery-packs which can be swapped for fully-charged ones. But that's fraught with problems. It makes it difficult for manufacturers to to introduce new battery technologies, for example. Also, the size and weight make this a non-trivial problem on the forecourt too. Somewhat akin to doing an engine-swap every few hundred miles! Also, I imagine it will have consumer resistance because people will want to own 'their' batteries, and not swap them for ones of unknown history. Then there's the issue of who owns the actual cells, and who takes the financial hit when a battery pack finally gives up. The unfortunate person who happens to have the battery that day? Perhaps the idea of the manufacturer owning the cells and hiring them will address this problem.

Certainly an interesting idea.

[1] An American friend told me this a few months ago: What's a difference between a Brit and an American? A Brit thinks 100 miles is a long way, an American thinks 100 years is a long time.

[The Natural Philosopher]

The answer is to simply let fuel oil prices rise not only at the pump but at the power stations too. Then what you get supplied to you can be bought from cheap nuclear power stations or expensive coal burning ones, as you wish,..;-)

I did SOME calcs on this last time it came up.

I think the answer I got was 2-3 times boost for the whole infrastructure for a completely electric transport system.

However the picture is complicated by several factors.

1/. It wouldn't be all electric - there would still be a lot of biodiesel and alcohol fuels used for usage patterns that don't fit 'recharging'

2/. Th egrid is currently shaped for peak demand - which happens by day..overnight charging of say 30% of the UK cars would probably hardly do more than allow high efficiency power stations to run 24 hours without having to be taken off line. Its actually a more efficient way to do things.

My final conclusion - hastily done - was that the current grid would simply absorb demand over the next few years if these cars became more popular, and then undergo progressive expansion on a timely basis as more cars came online.

Fortunately adding wires is not so hugely long timescale wise as adding e.g. a nuclear power station. If the demand is there, the capital costs can easily be met by debt financing. No need for government intervention at all.

I think not. But its actually pretty good..over 250mph IIRC.

You can, except the cost.

This technology is not around the corner.Its available NOW and has been for the last few years..simply not in the larger sizes that cars required, or in the low cost. Hence the Tesla has had to do what previous lithium battery cars have done - assemble packs out of a lot of 'laptop' sized batteries.

This is acceptable I think at this stage of the game. Its really a proof of concept and a rich mans toy at this point.

I said earlier this year that there were three points of entry that made sense into this market

1/. Luxury specialist cars, where cost was not a factor and electric gave superior NVH and general quality

2/. Mopeds scooters and small short range vehicles, where the cost would not be great.

3/. High power expensive toys. like the Tesla. which rich men could buy to make a fashion statement.

I would expect the entry into 'our' market to be via things like an electric 'smart' car..

and possibly some urban busses.

But thats no different from any other car. My Jag I have just sold was quoted as 0-60 in 5.2 secs and 22mpg.

It CERTAINLY would NOT do 22mpg at its rated top speed of 156mph.

Around London, it used to be about 12mpg. Over 70mph it dropped to

20mpg, and over 100mph it was around 17mpg.

I don't have figures for over 130mph ;-)

I see it somewhat differently

Look at car usage.

The average suburban estate dweller has a drive and a garage. No problem there with equipping that with a charge point.

But the average town dweller in on street..here I suspect that he would drive to work, or the shops, park the thing and charge it THERE. Those would probably NOT be high capacity charge points..but they would need to be supplied.

So most car parks would incorporate charging.

That takes care of all but the 'motorway' scenario where you might have to stop for 40 minutes every 200 miles or so, and go for a rapid charge..that WOULD need a substation of reasonable dimensions. However its arguably no more expensive than a bloody great suite of tanks and the like.

[The Natural Philosopher]

But only for the last few mph, or for emergency usage.

[The Natural Philosopher]

Not quite true.

It takes about 10 minutes to fill a car up and then potter around ..if you think that yiu can do 500 miles with just a ten minute break, well be my guest. I would normally break a 500 mile journey halfway for a comfort break - pee, food, coffee etc. Thats maybe 45 minutes.

You can just about recharge a LIPO battery to about 80% capacity from dead flat in 45 minutes.

The two longest stints I have ever done were Copenhagen to Cambridge, non stop apart from a ferry crossing and a 45 minute nap at Aaachen at 2 a.m. 23 hours in total..and 900 miles from Tuscany to Cambridge in 16 hours dead, with two drivers and an hour break in the middle plus an hour on the ferry, and three refuelling stops. I would not normally exceed 200 miles in a stint in ANY car..and such journeys are pretty rare. If for no other reason than its cheaper by air over 200 miles, and quicker..I think the times when I would exceed 200 miles without at least 40 minutes halt in the middle are rare to be almost nonexistent. It might be instructive to look at the government regulations regarding driving hours for HGV vehicles, and draw your own conclusions.

[The Natural Philosopher]

My jag did about 15mpg at 130mph, so about 280 miles range probably.

[Owain]

So let's substantially reduce the requirement for battery power / extend the range, by providing in-transit recharging.

We could have a scheme whereby on the major but low-speed routes in city centres is provided a network of overhead wires carrying electricity. A "collector" could be mounted on the roof of a vehicle to connect with these overhead wires. Consumption could be metered, although nowadays it would be trivial to have an onboard gizmo that would combine charging by mile, Ah or kWh, time, duration, position etc with continuous wireless transfer of data to the pricing administration.

It might not be feasible for all private vehicles to use this overhead power network, but electric buses, taxis and delivery vans all offer the opportunity for any specialised driver training required.

Owain

[Dave Plowman (News)]

There are official fuel consumption figures for any IC car which will give some guidance between makes - but not for electric ones. And hybrids distort the issue since the town figure is so much better, leading people to think they are more economical for all use. Which leaves advertisers open to claim what they want for electric vehicles

Those figures are very poor - but it is a design dating from the '60s and far too heavy with poor CD so the only way to get decent performance was with vastly powerful engines. Make an electric car weighing that amount etc for a reasonable comparison. Because such things *always* cloud the issue. Electric cars will be made with every weight saving and friction reducing trick in the book. And then compared to the worst possible conventional IC engined vehicle, when of course the comparison should be with a similarly advanced construction one. It's called common goalposts. ;-)

[Dave Plowman (News)]

So not single figures from a heavy car with poor CD and a less than state of the art engine?

[The Natural Philosopher]

Not at all. I think the answer is there in plain sight.

The tiny firm can afford to make a premium product that will appeal to a tiny minority. And sell in tens or hundreds at best.

The big firms are NEVER first to market with ANYTHING. They wait until the technology is mature, and then they production engineer it and churn the kit out for pence.

Looks at te history ofg the personal computer.

- first you could buy an 8080 chip and a board, and program it yourself in assembler or with switches.

- then you could buy a bloody expensive machine with disks and BASIC in ROM.

- Then you could buy a CP/M machine with disks, and quite a bit of software like word processors and spreadsheets.

- THEN IBM decided to make one - still not mass market, but a BIGGER specialised market.

- and so on.

Now we have windows and everyone has one.

What made all this possible?

A market need, and the microprocessor IC.

Not sure what an 8080 chop cost when it first came out..not cheap at all. But now we have huge processing power and you can pick up an 8080 type chip for about $3. With what amounts to a 8251 PIO all in the pack.

IF a suitable 100-200KWh battery and associated control/charge/protection electronics cost about £3000, it would be a total no brainer. Sadly is more like £60k or more..at the moment..but it doesn't need to be.

Raw lithium is about $89 a kilogram ..but expected to fall a fair amount.. (

$FILE/JOM-9805-24F.pdf?OpenElement ) and its energy density is up to 0.72 Mj/kilo, so $123 per megajoule is the raw material cost at PRESENT.

So a 50KWh battery - enough for a small car - represents 180MJ, or about $22,500. At todays exchange rates that represents about £13,000//the weight of lithium in it would be 250kg. I would expect 500kg for a complete pack. Very comparable with - say - a 1 liter turbodiesel power train.

Amortised over an expected 100,000 miles, that is 13p per mile.

So whilst it's close its not yet cost effective for a SMALL car. where £13,000 will buy you the whole car (maybe tow really cheap ones) and it is effectively worn out over 100,000 miles..

However..consider.

1/. Service costs. There is virtually nothing to wear out on an electric car - brake pads/discs/tyres are it, really. No fuel/air/oil filters. spark plugs or engine oil..almost no transmission..just 4 electric motors in the hubs, and a huge battery, and a bloody great amount of electronics.

2/. Fuel costs. Unless the government changes things tax wise, the fuel costs would be something like 3-4p a mile. So overall costs with the battery depreciation at 13p a mile comes up to say 17p a mile. Contrast around 11p a mile for a 40mpg diesel RIGHT NOW...and ..

3/. ..The scrap value of the lithium in the battery would NOT be zero.

So my conclusions are that IF the battery manufacturers tooled up for volume, AND the current tariff on road fuel versus electricity was not changed, the whole shebang is economically viable.

It is likely that lithium prices will come down as demand increases..the energy of extraction ultimately controls the price..

Of course none of this makes any sense if we are still relying on fossil fuels for electricity generation..the overall efficiency of the whole energy train from fuel to electricity to grid to charger to battery to wheel - is no better. All that does is move the CO2 pollution up the chain to the power station, where although its possible to extract it and sequester it more easily, its not exactly a hugely better solution.

But if a program of renewable sources - and nuclear - power generation is envisaged, with a heavy *carbon* tax, the balance shifts in favour massively.

Note as an aside that hydrogen takes 50Kwh to produce just one kilogram by electrolysis.

and that contains 33KWh ..a bloody awful 66% efficiency from electricity to fuel..and with a fuel cell at 70%, you are down to 46%.

The a decent switching charger should be around 95%, the battery conversion efficiency is around 90% or better..go figure where the 'hydrogen' economy is going..

[Ron Lowe]

And for a return electrode, we could put the things on rails...

[Doctor Drivel]

Toshiba have announced a battery that can take 80% of the charge in 3 mins, full in 5. Tesla are looking to the new batteries that will emerge in nest few years.

The avarage milage is approx the same as in the UK

The same here. 100 mile round commutes in the UK is quite common. People packing the car and driving 250 miles to the Lakes is quite common too.

[Matt]

Correct

Realistically the funding already in place to get what is essentially a powertrain implant into full production is way in excess of that used to get the base vehicle, all its body variants, engine changes, and all construction and use and federal compliance changes since 1996

- for instance the original Elise was designed, tooled and placed in production for *under* £6 million. The £30+ million that Tesla have might not sound a lot in global motoring terms but they have recruited the right people, kept the company lean and will almost certainly deliver what they claim.

The only thing that will stop this going on sale next year is one of the following:

A drastic movement in the $/£ exchange rate A global slump WW3

[Matt]

Except this vehicle/powertrain/battery was designed specifically to avoid the requirement for such infrastructure.

[Matt]

Not an exact one, a target price / market segment mean they are aiming at is public knowledge. It is by no means an absolute ceiling on what they might charge. The base vehicle retails at circa USD43000 plus taxes with an IC engine.

No they are not at the moment

Yes it probably is September, you got the month right but not the year. It's going to be available from around September 2007.

From the FAQ "Cars will be available for purchase in early 2007 with an anticipated delivery date of fall 2007"

[Matt]

But that is irrelevant as it won't be available here.

Again from the FAQ

"We will not sell a Tesla Roadster to anyone outside of the continental US"

Now there is nothing stopping anyone privately importing one as it could be licenced and used on the road after undergoing the appropriate type testing i.e. single vehicle approval but the support from Tesla would be non existent.

[Matt]

The basic concept used in the DeLorean bodyshell of metal over a composite core has recently being resurrected by a major steel company (Arcelor) It's being pushed as the "next big thing" in vehicle bodies.

[Doctor Drivel]

No replacement disc pads have been sold for a Pirus yet, the brake regen does it all.

[Doctor Drivel]

Lord Hall, but Arnold Schwarzenegger was at the launch on the 20th, and had a go. If it's alright for Arnie then it's alright for me.