I can recall parity between the pound and dollar in 1983/84 after Reagan jacked up interest rates to stamp out the 1970's inflationary binge resulting from the vietnam war.
And Oil went down to $10 in the same period. I had relatives living in Aberdeen working for Bristow. The Yanks all went home almost overnight and the relatives were moved to East Anglia. They had to almost give away their Aberdeen house, and buy an overpriced pile in Norfolk at the peak in 1988.
What a weird distorted notion of economics you seem to have.
Hopefully, yes. But material costs will go up, whilst their contracts may be in Sterling. So, some British industry will prosper, and some won't. In the long run, a 30% drop in Sterling will obviously be good.
I've not know it to take so long without the details being known. but that's between two people.
That doesn't mean you can't model the possibilities
that's what modelling is about, giving each possibility a percentage chance
At the end of the day we can simply walk away with "no deal".
The negotiation phase is to help the rest of the countries avoid any bad effects of us leaving. If they don't offer us something in return for that we don't have to accept it.
we don't have to suffer any humiliation.
tim
because the Treasury refuses to calculate this for them
where is it that you expect Leave to get hold of the equivalent model in the "free" software world?
tim
Yup. North sea oil and gas coming up to peak production.
Sadly now gone.
Oh so its alright when the opinions suit you and are quoted as facts but not the other way around? Oh dear, how sad.
As did the FTSE 100 - caused by people selling because they expect that post a Brexit the companies will not be as profitable so they get out whilst they can.
Poor profitability will also lead to further unemployment - and not only of those immigrants who Brexiters seem to detest for whatever reason.
and that has nothing whatsoever to do with your very wrong statement that almost nothing is happening. Still, why bother to accept you were wrong when you can change the parameters.
Great - we will see no more of your dubious facts or opinions backed up by citations then, you seem to have learned something this afternoon - but will no doubt have forgotten it by the evening.
Yep. And of course it wasn't just the pound that suffered.
Some may take comfort that, according to some sources at least, it took a word in Reagan's ear from Mrs T to get the issue on the G5 agenda and start the change in US policy
Then we'll have to agree to differ on that, and on almost everything else regarding this topic, it would seem.
michael adams
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Point of information: the "Treasury Model" is not secret. And it is also used by the EY Item Club
Unless I've misunderstood something, the data seems to show that the Federal Fund Rate peaked at around the 18/19% mark in 1981. Pound dollar parity was lowest in 1985, by which time the Federal Rate was down to 7/8%
It fell further to 5.9% by Sep 86 but then went up again.
michael adams
On 15-Jun-16 12:36 PM, Capitol wrote: ....
For me, it is to avoid the economic disaster that I expect should we leave, plus a complete lack of interest in any of the things that the Brexit campaign puts forward as reasons to leave. Others will, no doubt, have their own reasons.
The cheap point you were trying to make was that I'd got it wrong in saying that the rate had reached $1.05 or so in 1985.
....
I would expect them to commission a report from any of the universities or companies that provide expertise in the field. Of course, many of those have already predicted that Brexit will result in a reduction in Britain's GDP.
Were I was trying to make a cheap point about your memory failing you - and it would indeed have been a cheap point, then I would hardly have given my own example concerning the chainsaw, would I ?
In fact the "cheap point" is evidence of a cognitive bias whereby you automatically associate bad numbers with the 1970's when Labour were in power, as you did in responding to Capitol.
I can only ask you again a question I asked you before. In the course of your work, were you ever subject to strong magnetic fields ?
michael adams
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Oh but we will, if we leave. All those manufacturers and banks etc who base here mainly because we're in the EU.
He was talking about his recollection of the pound going low. I responded that I'd remembered it going lower. That's all. I made no comment, express or implied, relating to the date or who was in power at the time. If you think I did, then you're nodding off.
In what way is this relevant to anything?
I wasn?t the one saying anything about my personal experience of voters.
But neither did you seek to correct his claim that it went to $1.2 to the pound in the 1970's, did you ? The very fact that you appended your own observation to his, without comment as you say, simply lent credence to his claim that it went to $1.2 in the 1970's.
a) Regardless of your own recollection, and its timing, the fact that you were willing to take his totally erroneous recollection of a
70's low on trust, is the evidence of the cognitive bias I was referring to.
b) See (a) above
See (b) above
michael adams
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