Sterling prices.

Are sterling prices falling because we might vote leave and if so why do leavers keep saying it will go up if we leave?
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On 15-Jun-16 8:44 AM, dennis@home wrote:

Yes.

I refer you to Mandy Rice Davies.
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Colin Bignell
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On 15/06/16 09:03, Nightjar wrote:

No.
In fact sterling has been rising steadily in step with the swing towards brexit...
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/images/graphs/psl-eburyjune-7.PNG
So its just another remainer lie, really.

...to understand every utterance of the remainers.
And that is fundamentally what the team on Sky News said after Alsitair Darling had woffled his way through some kind of doom and gloom forecast.
Only if you understand that a whole political class and their gravy train riders' very existence is threatened by this referendum, can you realise exactly how far the public sector troughers will go in lies and deception to preserve the status quo.
And of course, if the market speculators like anything, is volatility. Bigging up perceived risks and pushing sterling/Euro futures is a sure way to make easy money.
There is a strong counter case that the currency most at risk from Brexit is the Euro, whose very existence and credibility is threatened by Brexit.
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I couldn't believe Osbourne this morning on Today. His position essentially seems to be that they offered a referendum while having no plan as to what to do in the event of an exit vote. So now at the last minute (just in time for polling day) comes this threat of an emergency budget to deal with it.
Hmmm, Just-In-Time threats, eh? He must have learnt something, then, from supply industries.
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wrote:

Anyone with any sense knows that if there is a Leave vote Osbourne is toast and won't be presenting Government anything.
tim
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There is no U in Osborne.
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On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 09:50:30 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

But that same site also says: "British Pound to Remain Under Notable Pressure Over Coming 10 Days
Sterling is starting to really feel the heat as markets look to exit the GBP market ahead of the June 23rd vote.
However, there is a must-read piece on Pound Sterling Live today that reports a view that the GBP/EUR will bounce sharply to 1.40 in the days following Brexit.
Why? Because the euro exchange rate complex has more to lose from Brexit than the pound does argues NAB’s Nick Parsons in an interview with spread betting firm IG.
Looking ahead to the next few days, uncertainty is the buzzword.
“Sterling is sliding away as we move ever closer to the EU referendum on the 23rd. Who knows which way the vote will go but sterling is being undermined by the uncertainty and this isn’t likely to change in the next ten days,” says Charles Purdy at Smart Currency Business.
and "On the potential future direction of the sterling-dollar exchange rate Barclays write:
The recent sell-off on increased trading volumes endorses our bearish view.
We expect resistance in the 1.4670 area to cap a move towards 1.4330 and then lower towards the 1.4005 area."

No. See also
http://uk.reuters.com/business/currencies
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On 15/06/16 10:12, Mark Allread wrote:

Actually everything you say can be condensed into one statement:
"No one really knows WTF will happen either way" and "lots of lovely volatility in the markets right now for speculators to make fortunes with"
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On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 10:21:25 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

Oh dear - you don't like the direct quotes which belie your stance so you again misquote. Bless!
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You simply don't know what you are talking about. The link you cited said "LONDON, June 16 Sterling fell by half a percent against the dollar on Thursday ..." Currencies fluctuate up and down against each other by half a per cent (or more) almost every day, in both directions.
They always have done. It's easy for someone to claim "The pound fell because of X" or "The SFr rose because of Y", but in reality one rarely knows the real reasons. In many ways there *are* no reasons, it's just thousands of people exhibiting random herd behaviour.
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On Thu, 16 Jun 2016 16:30:04 +0100, Big Les Wade wrote:

Again from the same link - just to help you follow the trend:
UPDATE 2-Sterling hits 10-week low as polls show majority favour Brexit
LONDON, June 16 Sterling fell more than 1 percent to a 10-week low against the dollar on Thursday, after polls showed more Britons will vote to leave the European Union than stay next week and the Bank of England warned the pound may fall sharply in response.
and a timeline:
Pound dips as poll shows 53 percent favour Brexit 9:24am BST UPDATE 2-Sterling steadies in wait for Fed rates statement 15 Jun 2016 Small "Remain" lead in UK poll helps sterling steady 15 Jun 2016 UPDATE 3-Sterling skids to 2-month low as Brexit fears intensify 14 Jun 2016 UPDATE 2-Sterling hits 8-week low vs dollar as Brexit worries grow 14 Jun 2016 Euro, pound fall to lowest level vs yen since 2013 13 Jun 2016 REFILE-UPDATE 2-Sterling falls as Brexit campaign enters final fortnight
10 Jun 2016 Sterling inches lower, hedging costs hit 7-year high 10 Jun 2016 UPDATE 2-Sterling hedging costs soar as Brexit worries bite
You do understand the above don't you? You did read how a fear of Brexit is causing sterling to fall and how, on June 15 a small Remain lead helped sterling to steady a little and then fall again as Brexit takes a lead.
Which bit of the above do you not comprehend. Let me know and I'll see if I can simplify it a bit for you.
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What makes you think that a fear of brexit is causing sterling to fall? Because somebody said "Sterling fell more than 1 percent to a 10-week low against the dollar on Thursday, after polls showed more Britons will vote to leave the European Union"? Even *he* only said "after". Even he didn't claim that one caused the other. He's just speculating, because it's his job.
Millions of things happen every day that could affect currency rates. Small fluctuations happen all the time. You cannot assign every fluctuation to a single cause that happened that day.
I'll grant you that BoE statements might cause exchange rate fluctuations. But that doesn't mean that the markets are afraid of Brexit. It means that they're afraid a BoE statement might cause a sterling sell-off.

Did it really? What did the Fed do that day in terms of open market operations, do you happen to know?

Sheer, crass ignorance.

You could try a statement like "If A happens then B happens, then A must have caused B". That should be simple enough for you.
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On Thu, 16 Jun 2016 18:52:28 +0100, Big Les Wade wrote:

Ahh, evidence and hard facts. Never go down well with Brexiteers.
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Mark Allread wrote:

Currency fluctuations are normal. I see that the pound rose against the Euro on some occasions in the past week, is that because of Brexit? The dollar is still falling against the yen, is that because of Brexit. You seem to be suffering from remain logic like Osborne and Carney.
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posted

Because even you should have noticed that the referendum is less than a week away.

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On 15-Jun-16 9:50 AM, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

That is only to June 7th. It has been dropping over the past couple of days. However, even more important is the volatility, which is now nearly as high as it was during the 2008 banking crisis.
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On 15/06/2016 10:24, Nightjar wrote:

Of course we'll never know how much of this is because the PM refused to allow contingency planning by the civil service for a “Brexit". So we have had lots of forecasts from officials of the horrendous effects of BREXIT following a period when the same officials were not allow to work on how best to plan and manage a BREXIT.
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They couldn't plan for it as the EU have absolutely no interest in indicating what their negotiating position would be post Brexit. When the UK attempts to extricate itself from its present position and tries to renogotiate all the treaties to which it is currently a signatory.
Its the EU that doesn't have an exit strategy in place for such an eventuality, not the UK Govt. And that's always been the case.
Just as right now its not at all clear who will be negotiating post Brexit on the UK's behalf. There are claims that Brexiters will demand places for Gove and Duncan-Smith so that they can be sure the UK team will play hardball. Except of course that the EU can tell them to go and get lost.
Anyone who seriously believes Dave was given a hard time in attempting to renegotiate the UK's terms has seen nothing yet. There will be two or three years of this with the UK suffering one humilation after another. Just as I remember the UK on its knees begging De Gaulle to let us join, and us finally getting in, so we can all look forward to the UK on its knees again begging Merkel and co. to let us leave with at least some vestige of dignity intact. Not a chance.
If the EU is going to implode it's going to implode whether the UK is in it or out of it. Everyone is going to have to renegotiate sooner or later.
The UK stuck its head over the parapet in trying to sort out Europe's problems, twice in the 20th century and bankrupted itself as a result.
It seems some people simply can't wait to repeat the same mistake.
michael adams
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It doesn’t have to do anything like that with all the UN treatys, NATO and the WTO etc or with any of the commonwealth either.

And Britain is free to make an obscene gesture in their general direction and trade under the WTO rules.

And Britain is free to make an obscene gesture in their general direction and trade under the WTO rules.

Britain is free to make an obscene gesture in their general direction and trade under the WTO rules.

Britain is free to make an obscene gesture in their general direction and trade under the WTO rules.

That's bullshit. Without the cash flow that Britain provides, the EU is much more likely to implode. That's why the EU is so desperate to see Britain stay in the EU.

Not if the EU doesn’t implode.

Yes, but without a full world war, it doesn’t need to bankrupt itself this time and can avoid being bankrupted by the complete implosion of the eurozone this time and can decide whether it wants to be part of what the EU ends up as after the eurozone has imploded spectacularly with very little cost at all, at most a reduction in the GDP of a few percent at most this time around.

There won't be a full world war this time, you watch.
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No of course not. Two or three years of UK businesses both large and small including farmers not being able to effectively plan for the future will have absolutely no effect on the UK economy at all.
And just like mobile phone contracts presumably you can't just walk away without having to pay a penalty of some kind.
Oh sorry there's the WTO. The day, after Brexit Gove and Duncan Smith pop round to WTO HQ and it will be sorted by the end of the week.
michael adams
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