On Sun, 28 Jul 2013 09:59:34 -0500, pilgrim wrote:
It's really just a personal conclusion on my part based on what I see
evolving in the marketplace.
I'm a lover of the long obsolete Pocket PC which runs a simplified
form of Windows. Not that I love windows but that machine is a full up
windows computer with a simplified version of the Office package on it
when it comes out of the box. And fits in my shirt pocket with room to
The flaw in the business model was that once they sell the hardware
and maybe a few applications, there is no more income stream.
I bought my first one in 2003. At that time cell phones were big,
expensive, stupid, and had a text only monochrome screen something
like a 1'' by 1.5''. Just big enough to show a phone number and a
name. All it could do was make phone calls and pretty high priced
phone calls at that.
The PPC can't make phone calls but does a decent job of everything
else within it's obvious physical limits.
Over the years, cell phones got bigger screens, color, and the
processor got smart enough to run "apps". And millions of developers
wrote them. And some apps use processing power at a server on the
Cell phones put the PPC out of business but they come with a monthly
bill - good business model, not good for me. And they come with
considerable questions about privacy.
But they do do most of the things most people want a computer for. In
a great many homes they have completely replaced both the desktop box
and the land line. Plus, you get a bigger, better, and cheaper one
every year or two.
At the same time companies were giving up stand-alone computers. Hard
to maintain, easy for employee tampering, well meant or not. And
difficult to collect information into a central database. That's
essential for any sort of statistical process control, tracking
production progress from input to output, software licence management,
version updates, etc. They have gone to what looks like a personal
computer at each point of use. It most IS a PC but it's pretty limited
hardware and really functions as a dumb terminal to the server. It has
almost zero software on it. Simple and cheap and all upgrades are done
at one server instead of X stations.
So from both the consumer and commercial/industrial side of the
picture, the belch-fire V8 stand alone computer is a dinosaur. And
sales figures show that.
I don't think it's a big reach to say the powerful, stand alone, home
machine will go the way of the PPC. That's a personal conclusion and I
expect someone will pop up here to dispute it. I'd like to hear
opposing views. Only time will tell.
The laptop took over for a lot of desktops. But look at their
evolution. The netbook is fast replacing laptops for many users. It's
getting so computer screens are getting smaller and cell phone screens
are getting bigger. Net books are heavily network dependent. Android
tablets almost completely. Revenue stream.
Look at the software business models. If Gates sells you XP, it's one
sale. In theory it's limited to one computer for as long as it lasts.
It's easy to put it on several, it's easy to migrate it to a new
machine. Not good for Gates. He started talking about leasing the OS
by the year long, long ago. Many engineering applications already do.
Perpetual income streams. That means a network machine.
Cell phones - perpetual income streams and perhaps more money to be
made from tracking people and selling advertising information than
from the monthly usage charge. Same story for the 99 cent
Revenue streams for application writers. Either you work corporate or
you work the personal market. How much can I charge Joe Sixpack for an
app? You don't go to the software store and buy a box anymore. They
make their money selling it in bulk, through a network distribution
channel (with a zero per copy physical cost), to millions of users.
Users hanging on the network. And most of them generate user profile
income, if not personal then in aggregate.
Windows has had trouble establishing itself in the cell phone market.
People seem to like Android. That interface is purely geared to
personal use and to social networking and entertainment media. Windows
7 and 8 are look-alikes. Most cell phones are Android. Most tablets
are Android. That format will dominate on personal equipment. Simple,
uncluttered on a small screen, suitable for touch screen instead of
keyboard/mouse, does what Joe Sixpack wants to do. While Win7-8 can be
reconfigured to look/work like XP, it's an extra step.
Commerce/industry won't bother. They will run Linux on a heavy duty
server and give individual workstations a simple dumb client machine
with what ever screen serves their needs. The security is better too.
I'll climb off my soap box now. I'll repeat this is a personal
estimation of the future. The future likes to take screwball turns,
but so far the path as been consistent and it also makes sense - small
personal devices completely network dependant. Or stand alone, secure
commercial servers on a tightly controlled internal network. There is
not enough middle ground to support a business model. (Land lines will
go extinct before too long too.)
If anyone agrees with this, the message is to stock up on performance
computer hardware and archive your existing software for the future.
It's both a choice between what mode you want to do your computing
chores in, and how you want to trade off one time cost vs. monthly
cost, and how you want to trade off convenient and current vs.
Full disclosure: I'm in alt.survival. I'm always thinking in terms of
what if the standard way of the world goes bad. How do I live off-grid
with minimal dependence on outside products and services. If you see
the world going on forever, just getting better and better, ignore me.
You are probably right, but I'm keeping my options open.
Dat be the cloud esse. What rock you be living under? Amazon Web Services.
They're not the only provider, but they are big. They went down on Christmas
Eve last year, leaving all those people watching 'It's A Wonderful Life' on
Netflix streaming pissed off. Windows Azure, Rackspace, and so forth all
have had outages. Shit happens. Sometimes the effects are more far reaching
than not being able to watch 'How the Grinch Stole Christmas'
Remember a few years ago, Blackberry lost one of their satellites.
Most of the US was uncovered and I kind of remember Europe having some
sort of problem. Lots of high powered business types were not happy.
I WAS impressed. They had a spare satellite in orbit but it took a day
or two to move it into the right position to replaced the failed bird.
Darn, you are right. I hate it when that happens.
I was confusing the Blackberry problem with the loss of Galaxy 4 in
1968 which shut down pager services among others.
A few weeks ago, someone at work needed to download some files from a
customer that had them stored on icloud or some Apple file sharing
something or other, and the firewall was blocking it so I had to figure
out how to unblock it.
Unblocking all of the Apple applications traffic was not doing it so I
had to do a packet capture to see what else was involved. After it
touched almost 2 dozen different services, it appears that Apple was
leasing AWS space for icloud because once I opened up traffic for AWS
apps in the firewall, they could access and download the files.
Almost 2 dozen different services/IPs is what the packet capture showed!
ISPs, marketing and ad servers, cloud storage providers, download
managers, etc. all had this traffic pass thru. That shows there really
is no privacy in the cloud.
I dunno what universe you're in , because I still get automatic updates
for a multitude of MS products , including Windows XP - both pro and home
versions . They keep saying they're going to stop support , but too many
large businesses use that OS .
On your OE problems , there's a folder in your "my documents" folder that
has all your contacts and old conversations . I have successfully
transferred that data to a CD , then to the new OS when I had to reload XP .
They may. There are still a lot of comercial places using XP. No need for
them to upgrade and seems that the newer systems are not really for
business, but social networking.
To top it all off, there is a lot of equipment still out that need DOS and a
slow computer to run it on. Anything past windows 98 will not work and if
the computer is very fast, even that will not work.
You should have seen our IT department looking around for an old 3 inch
floppy that was a special kind that I think was used mainly in some IBM
machnes years ago. That drive was part of a $ 40,000 machine and needed to
load some programs on.
Linux all the way. Almost all apps. are free.
All my desktops and laptops has dual boot. Linux of some flavor
plus XP, Vista, Win7, Win8 all 64 bit Pro or Ultimate version.
My favorite Linux is Ubuntu and Mint. Pretty easy to use with minimal
On Sat, 27 Jul 2013 21:51:24 -0500, Fat-Dumb and Happy
They were going to cut it off in 2010, then 2011, then 2013.....
Way too many computers out there that simply arent ballsy enough to
run Win 7/8 in any sort of manner. And few really want to change to
yet another Windows money pit.
Which is why there are a gazillion types of Linux out there and its
getting stronger and stronger with each passing year. I stopped
paying for Windows after Xp SP3. Now most of my boxes run Linux in
one flavor or another.
And why most commercial websites use Linux in one form or another
Its been called Winblows for a decade or more..for a number of really
""Almost all liberal behavioral tropes track the impotent rage of small
children. Thus, for example, there is also the popular tactic of
> (http://free.avg.com/us-en/free-antivirus-download )
I have a better way of dealing with viruses than antivirus programs.
I have two computers connected with a KVM switch.
I run my business with one computer and do all of my internet surfing on
my other older computer.
If I ever get a bug on my internet surfing computer, I just format the
hard disk and reload Windows XP. I have very little software that I use
on that surfing computer, so once XP is reloaded the rest of the
software is loaded from a memory stick in just a few minutes. And, I
really don't care if I lose my favourites list or all my cookies.
I think buying a KVM switch and using a second (older) computer for
surfing and internet stuff is a better option than running antivirus
software cuz it doesn't slow your computer down. And, nowadays you can
buy refurbished desktop computers from Staples for like $250 or less.
On my business computer I have all my business files on a 128 GB solid
state drive. Solid state drives are like one big memory stick with no
platter or head to crash or motor to burn out, so they're very much more
reliable than conventional hard drives.
The last 3 computers I bought were off ebay for $ 100 or less including the
shipping. Most were just the desk top unit and they usually come with XP
sp3 on them and a cd with the system. Also loaded with some free wear such
as the dvd burning program and Open Office. The last was a P4 3.2 ghz.
As I don't do games, that is fast enough for what I do.
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