------------------------------------------------- Trust me as a salesman that if I get a chance to place an order for 28 widgets that cost in excess of $20K each and resell 24 of them at a profit in 20 days, you can bet your sweet rear end I'm a happy salesman.
Lew
Who mentioned nuclear waste? Certainly not me. Yes, I know, the vast bulk of the world runs on oil and nuclear generated electricity.
And, just because the US hasn't experience any all encompassing nuclear accidents lately, it's sheer arrogance to even think that it couldn't happen.
So, that means we should just go blithely ahead without any concern as to how we might be adding to the pollution quotient? In addition, those natural oozes are not man made either.
Of course, the salesman always get paid, profit or no profit. And yes it is not a stretch to loose money on the sale of a traded vehicle. Hopefully the loss is made up when the trade-in is finally sold.
I did not mean to indicate that oil spills are not a disaster of a particular size, only to point out that disasters of nuclear flavor are a problem that never goes away. Nuclear is sold as clean and friendly. Basically all forms of friendly energy comes with its own baggage when something does not go as planned. But put into perspective how much each actually is used and how much energy it actually generates and oil looks better when the problems surface for each type of disaster.
Three Mile Island. And nuclear disasters relatively last for ever.
No, we should look for alternatives but so far none are better than oil.
In addition,
Precisely! Our man made ocean disasters don't compare to what nature produces, and nature takes care of those on its own.
------------------------------------------------------ "Le> That oil spill is all but forgotten.
------------------------------------------------------- Wonder if that is the reason BP is in the middle of a pubic relations campaign across the country using the national media?
Somehow I don't think so.
That BP spill simply exposed what an environmental risk off shore drilling can be.
This time around it w> Please! Not required to clean up pollution??????? Did CA ax the
-------------------------------------------------------------------- We are ga> There is no question that electric vehicles are the future;
-------------------------------------------------------------- "Lew Hodgett" wrote:
--------------------------------------------------------------- "Le>
-------------------------------------------------------------- Too many of the big boys are getting into the electric vehicle market for it not to grow significantly.
VW as one comes to mind.
My guess is that in 10 years or less, the majority of vehicles manufactured will be electric.
Lew
On Mon, 23 Sep 2013 21:16:54 -0700, "Lew Hodgett"
I'm not quite that optimistic, but I can envision it happening within the next quarter century. With entrepreneurs like Tesla fully committed to electric vehicle promotion, it will happen sooner than later. Add onto that the fact that the Tesla *looks damned good* IMHO, the electric car field has nowhere to go except up.
Tesla is going to have to cut pricing by 2/3 to have a serious alternative to gasoline vehicles. The bigger less expensive vehicle that will go long distances will drive the market.
That said Tesla is toying with a prototype battery exchange station to give the vehicle the ability to leave one city to go to another. Unfortunately those stations will have to be 3 times closer than gas stations and I suspect that a charged exchange battery will be pretty pricey.
Sure, there's going to be some difficulties, but certainly many fewer difficulties than Ford had when he started producing his model T. The main thing is that the ball is rolling. I truly believe it's an inexorable ball too. Go back a little as a twenty years. Who would have believed that the electric car would be or *is* now a practical reality.
Yeah, ten, twenty, twenty five years is a huge amount of time considering our drive to produce new technology.
-------------------------------------------------- wrote:
------------------------------------------------------ That 10 year number comes from the industry itself, not me, I'm just the messenger.
Lew
--------------------------------------------------------- Tesla is already committed to producing a vehicle that will sell for about $30K within 3-5 years.
Since the average daily auto trip is about 29 miles, per Nissan, long distances are the exception, not the rule.
200 miles between recharge is already here.Economy has not been addressed in this thread.
A KWH of power generated by an internal combustion engine is considerably more expensive than a KWH produced by a fixed utility.
Reduced operating costs help to offset initial costs.
Lew
I believe the electric car will evolve but I still believe it will take decades at a minimum before they become an actual benefit to the environment.. You still have to factor in the impact they have on the environment during manufacture, the maintaining of their components, and their eventual disposal/recycling. There should be disclosure statements with each unit as to what the impact is going to be on the environment much like the carbon foot print that is determined for each fossil fuel vehicle.
Ford's issue was building a vehicle fast enough to meet with demand. Demand for the Model T was hundreds of times greater than it is for electrics or hybrids. Yes demand for the electrics/hybrids are greater than they were 15 + years ago, but there are more to choose from. The problem is that they are still as much of an I'm pact on the environment as ever and still pretty much have down time limitations for recharging when they can't be used. They will be popular for those that believe that they are doing the environment a good deed and have relatively small needs for having a vehicle that will take them to a destination 60 miles away from home and back. There are countless people that make a treck this far on a daily basis just to go to work. In particular these commuters live in heavy population areas, ironically this is where the electrics should be most popular.. Time will tell how fast this transition will take place if it actually does take place. IMHO electrics in the foreseeable future will be more of a novelty to those that can afford..
Committed. But that still is not yet a reality. Oldsmobile was committed to build a Diesel engine. GM was committed to build a competitive small car, Saturn. Karmen Fiscar was committed. The question will be, will they be able to produce a vehicle that buyers will want at 1/3 their current price and still be able to remain in business selling that cheaply in as little as 3~5 years. It is only if the masses find the cheaper vehicle to be at least equal to the traditional vehicles will that vehicle have a chance of succeeding.
Seriously, 29 is not even in the ball park for any relative big, not large city, commuter. I was in the automotive business for most all of my professional career and in particular in the repair end of the dealership business. 32 miles a day every day is just under 12,000 moles a year. When you see a vehicle that is only driven that distance it is considered a below average low mileage vehicle. 24,000 miles a year is the actual normal mileage that is placed on a vehicle and as one would expect a majority of those miles are going to and from work. Since the 5 day work week excludes weekend driving those a majority of those 24,000 miles are racked up in 250 ish days vs 365 days. Now the daily travel distance for the average city driver goes up to almost 100 miles a day.
While Nissan claims that the average auto trip is 29 miles a day I highly suspect that what they are not telling you is that the average daily trip for a Leaf driver will be 29 miles a day.
And not as affordable as a gasoline equally equipped vehicle. Hell, those experimental solar electrics go 1,000 miles in the desert but they too are not yet affordable or practice.
I'm not saying that I'm against electrics but being a realist and observing what is actually happening vs what the media wants to report I am looking at what the electrics are going to have to offer that will be an advantage over the competition before you see any majority shift in how the vehicle is fueled.
And I will add to that, 10 plus years ago it was a reality that a an electric powered motor was 4 times efficient to power vs an internal combustion engine. Read that as the electric only required 1/4 the energy as the gasoline consumes to produce the same amount of power.
BUT a battery pack for storing generated electricity is countless times more expensive than a gasoline fuel tank and today the capacity of the electric power storage is 25~35% of the average energy stored in a gasoline fuel tank.
And then finally, the biggest obstacle for the all electric vehicle is the time it takes for replenishing to a full charge vs the five minutes it takes to refuel a gasoline tank.
Unfortunately for the electrics is that they are going to end up at home for recharging. It is next to impossible to consider it to be a practice alternative for driving from Houston to the next largest city and back in the same day. That fact in itself will be one of the deal breakers..
Well first Lew, you say "your guess" is that in 10 years or less the "majority" of vehicles will be electric. Now you say this number comes from the industry.
That industry naturally will make that claim, it's make it or break it time. That industry needs an enormous infusion of cash from investors to be able to mass produce a vehicle that will actually perform and go the distance and be at least equal in amenities as the much much lower price vehicles available right now with gasoline/diesel engines.
I hope that 10 years is a realistic and achievable time frame but I don't see the trend growing that fast. It seems to be growing fast because of all of the attention it is getting but I am still seeing, in Houston, the vast majority of new vehicles being equipped with the traditional internal combustion engine. Many more hurdles will have to be over come before the "majority of new vehicle buyers make the switch.
My bet is that in ten years there will be FEWER electric and hybrid cars on the market than there are now. Cars won't be smaller or get much better mileage and barring (even more) government meddling, gas won't be much more expensive in a decade, either. Two decades, even.
Mercedes, IIRC, suggests they will have a "self-driving car" by the end of the decade. I expect an increase in mass transit, and fewer cars. A self-driving car would seem to support various forms of "sharing".
Already a system is currently going up in Indianapolis, where you can "share" an electric car--dropping it off at one of numerous designated recharge stations.
That is entirely possible too. In 1975 I bought an Oldsmobile Starfire with a 3.8L V6, Vega/Pinto sized car. 110 HP. I got 25 mpg on the highway, top speed around 95 mph
In August of last year I bought my wife a 2012 Camry SE with 3.5L V6,
268 HP and pretty much loaded. Top speed is supposed to be about 130 governor limited, nope I have not seen this but don't doubt the capability.This past spring we took a few days off with come close friends, 4 of us, on a 2 night away trip. The trunk was full of luggage.
Shortly after getting to highway speed, which I maintained with cruise control for 1 hour, I zeroed the computer and after 1 hour of driving we stopped for a break. Actually not really a break but the women saw a store 6 miles down the road and we were going to stop, IYKWIM. We went 72 miles in that hour and used 2 gallons of gas.
In town driving we average 26 MPG.
Not a stretch, GM was playing with this idea some 15~20 years ago with sensors built into the highway that guided the vehicle. And today some vehicles will automatically parallel park.
share a car?? As in leave your vehicle and take some one else's?
I would not, maybe you would, be OK with lending my vehicle to a stranger and I cant begin to fathom the liability issues associated with this arrangement.
Actually, now that I think about it, it's a "pay by the hour" system. One takes a car from any designated spot, and drops it off at any other available designated spot. So the advantage is, you don't need to own a car to use one of these. It is expected to appeal to many of our conventioneers. My understanding is that it is being built now.
With regard to your concern, hopefully there will be some quality control! I assume a borrower would be responsible for not leaving french fries and related items in the car...
Maybe my explanation about resolves your concern about this issue. To me, it seems to resemble "renting a car".
Here your go. I haven't read the whole article:
And on a related note (rent-a-bike!):
I think my concern would be with someone having an accident and the hassle of filling out paperwork for rental by the hour each time you rent one.
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