I *just* got off the phone with a friend that had house built recently.
They signed the deal in February 2020, just before Covid hit. The build started in August of 2020 but they were luckily locked in at the February number.
They were talking to the builder last month when he started construction on a house in the next lot over. I don't know the price of either house but I do know that the builder told my friend that the new build is a couple of hundred square feet smaller but was costing $36K more than her house. He also told them that he didn't know the exact number, but if he had charged them what he should have in August, it would have easily added $15K to their cost. The profit he made on her house was significantly impacted. The builder said that the lumber shortage is the cause of the increase.
No one will sell him huge stacks of lumber like he used to buy. He used to buy in "bulk" for a better price and store it for future builds. Now he's being told that if they fulfill large orders, they will have to say "No" to other clients and risk loosing them as customers when things settle down. That means that the builders are being hit twice. Once because of the price increase of the material itself and again because they can't get the same bulk pricing that they got on the larger orders. That problems works it way back up the supply chain so everyone is being impacted.
She also mentioned that friends of theirs had been working with an architect on a renovation project. They are still in the design phase, so no orders have been placed. They just put the project on hold due the high cost of lumber and how it was driving the price way beyond their budget.