OT Gridwatch - demand slowly ramping up

[David]

Following on from other Gridwatch references I've had the web site up open for a few days now.

It looks as though demand is slowly going up each day, nuclear and CCGT are at the top end of their range (presumably most nuclear reactors are now on line) and coal is slowly ramping up.

With this grey overcast and the cold weather it is beginning to look as though if the wind drops we could be pushing the boundaries a bit.

Fortunately it looks as though we are still in windy times. Although Thursday and Friday seem to have lower wind speeds predicted.

Realistically, how close are we to demand outstripping supply?

How much 'headroom' do we have if we get the traditional "USA weather two weeks later" with snow and freezing temperatures?

Just wondering

Dave R

[Jethro_uk]

Well any demand for energy certainly isn't coming from car headlights.

Visibility is down to 100m in places, and about 2/3 of cars are dark.

[Andrew Gabriel]

Jan-March is the time when we get periods of little light, no wind, and cold weather.

There are some things which are probably not obvious from grid watch...

Some large customers buy electricity cheaper on the basis that they can be switched off without much warning when there's a shortage. (Same with gas customers.) Electricity companies now directly control many streetlamps (all in Hampshire AFAIK, via a mesh network), and they can switch them all on and off whenever they like. I don't know if they have a process in place to switch them off if there's a supply deficit, but it would be technically possible for sure.

A few years ago, the backup generators for our data centres were modified so they can back-feed the grid if asked. I suspect there's probably quite a bit of this across the country too.

[Dave Liquorice]

Pretty sure they do get some warning, if only from the warning notices issued by National Grid that they might have to impliment some of the Demand Side Response (DSR).

There used to be Supplemental Balancing Reserve (SBR), power stations paid to be ready to start if required. That system no longer exists and has been replaced by the "Capacity Market". Haven't looked at how that (is supposed to) work(s).

They probably form part of the Short Term Operating Reserve (STOR). Small systems that can be started up quickly and with little/no notice. Possibly even under remote control.

[The Other Mike]

No point in looking at Gridwatch as supply always equals supply + losses

The orange and red zones bear no relationship to actual availability which varies enormously season to season.

The National Grid winter outlook report 2017/18 shows the anticipated plant capacity and margins

The predicted winter peak was for week 3 at 50960MW

As for live data, from the horses mouth

For 530pm to 6pm today there is around 5GW of derated margin.

For the same period yesterday it was 7GW

For the same period tomorrow, at 24 hours out it is currently 500MW, for previous half hour it is currently minus 30MW, with a peak demand of 51610MW

But that does not mean there are going to be power cuts at 5pm tomorrow, nor dimming lights, nor a shortage of generation. Despite recent generation closures (both coal and gas) and a lack of significant new build the margins this winter are larger than for quite some time.

Others could comment with more authority on the weather in the USA reaching here some time later, often it does but it would appear that in the case of these extreme low temperature and significant snow falls that will not happen. If you want a country with power cuts and people trapped by snow try Switzerland and the current situation in Zermatt, a place where cars are banned.

[The Natural Philosopher]

Yes. there's getting on for probaly about a gigawatt of 'disposable demand'

'The other mike' propbably knows more

[Brian Gaff]

How much capacity does Europe have and at what cost and how good is the connection? Brian

[Brian Gaff]

Be a neat trick to power cars from the mains. I do gather that after such a long time brits are very economical with lights on cars. all a bit lost on me of course, but I wonder how they got on in the war during the black outs? Brian

[damduck-egg]

With difficulty ,but there were far fewer cars on the road and for many fuel rationing meant they weren't used as freely as before the war. Lots of white paint on kerbs, trees and potential hazards some of which was still visible well into the 70's. Vehicles themselves had often had wings bumpers and running boards painted white,a sensible precaution in era when most cars were black and other colours if available were dark shades. Bicycles had white painted on the rear mudguard which often remains on old examples. Pedestrians still got killed in large numbers with over 1100 killed in the first month of the blackout and whose death was attributed to it.

In those places that had them following a tram or the lines was a useful way of not driving into the kerb.

G.Harman

[Tim Watts]

Given the lack of street lighting in some places and the tendency to turn it off later at night (or all the time in some cash strapped areas) we should go back to whitening things...

[newshound]

Four interconnectors at the moment I think (more under construction)

2 GW to France, 1 GW to Holland, 500 MW each to Northern Ireland and to the Irish Republic.

Pretty reliable. Historically the French one was almost all one way (importing) but I think we have been exporting while some of their plant was down.

Don't have the figures but I'd expect capacity and consumption per capita to be similar for broadly similar countries.

[The Natural Philosopher]

Not quite. France is higher because with cheap nuclear electric its the main way they heat houses.

[DJC]

On 09/01/18 16:45, The Other Mike wrote: If

That's usual for Zermatt, a couple of days every winter there is an avalanche on the railway and the village cut off. I have also been there in summer when a large lump of mountain came down with similar effect.

[damduck-egg]

I expect we do have a lot better reflective surfaces now and many bends will be marked with chevrons ,in some places there is an excess road of signs with reflective surfaces. I live in a village without any street lighting and like it that way as do the majority of the residents. A lot people don't get to find out that except on really filthy nights how much you can see once the eyes have been allowed to adjust to the conditions.

One thing that has helped those who venture out at night now compared with previous generations is the LED which offers bright torches that don't eat through a load of Every Ready batteries each week and clothing fitted with Leds is now common place as well as ordinary reflective tabards ,armbands etc being easily obtained . Somewhere there will be a line as to what is best, providing lighting which may well be money wasted if no one passes in a quiet area or passing the cost onto the small numbers of people passing by expecting them to carry decent personal lighting instead. Where that line is placed could be a source of much debate but I think it has moved in recent times now a small light pocket torch easily outshines a hand lantern with a 6 volt battery from a couple of decades ago.

One thing I did not mention about the WW2 blackout was that pedestrians were advised to carry a newspaper at night to hopefully act as a reflector.

G.Harman

[Dave Liquorice]

Dark Skies. There must be a great many people who have never seen anything but the brightest stars/planets. It's quite a sight to look up on a clear moonless night and see the Milky Way arching across the sky and so many stars that it makes it hard to pick out the constelations.

Or like find out what "dark" really means. Dark as in eyes open, not able to see *anything*, not the faintest of glows, not a pinpoint, absolulely nothing, decidely disturbingly dark.

With the tendancy of outdoor clothing to be dark and wet road surfaces being dark pedestrians are well advised to carrying something light coloured or have reflective arm bands, even in street lit areas.

[Bob Eager]

And if a vehicle is approaching, move the light thing or arm bands. More noticeable.

[T i m]

We had that in Norfork recently when approaching someone walking a dog (on the right side of the road) but the first thing we saw of them was the flash of a (moving) torch (still a reasonable distance away etc).

Had they been wearing anything bright or even better, reflective, I may have seen them sooner and would have preferred that.

When buying an outdoor / waterproof jacket I see if I can get something with some form of reflective component. My current one has reflective piping for example (very 'Tron' like). ;-)

Cheers, T i m

[Dave Plowman (News)]

Round here, people use headlights in anything other than bright sunlight. Never did quite understand the theory. Other than making the vehicle more visible to pedestrians with poor eyesight. And I doubt many care about those.

[Jethro_uk]

Driving about 7am yesterday, there was a pedestrian wearing something which *really* lit up/stood out. It was some sort of white coat, but the retroreflection must have been well over 50% ...

It was a very sensible choice, since the space inside the hood was an inky void, due to the wearers pigmentation.

[Tim Lamb]

In message , "Dave Plowman (News)" writes

Unlit country lane here. Closing yard gates etc. I often come across cyclists using forward facing lamps roughly equivalent to a car headlight. Fine if it makes them feel safer but, when it is mounted on their helmet and they look to see what is standing by the road, has a blinding effect. I've not yet met one while driving but suspect this might actually be dangerous.

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