A corona factoid.

[Jimk]

Cite?

[Jimk]

Yersss....

"the infection rate now exceeds the testing rate"

?

[The Natural Philosopher]

"In the last week active cases in Italy have risen by 171 per cent. That compares to almost 300 per cent in France, 500 per cent in Spain,

550 per cent in Germany and 480 per cent in the UK."

(Daily Toiletgraph)

isolation works...

[Jethro_uk]

I don't think that's true, otherwise the UK would have mandated it immediately.

It will be a cold day in hell when the British follow the foreign herd (immunity) thank goodness. I'd rather die British than live foreign.

[Mike Halmarack]

Or found a better, more individualistic way.

That's the spirit.

[Pamela]

The inital UK plan was breath-takingly wrong.

Brilliant! After this is over, there won't be many left who think like that.

[Andy Bennet]

The infection rate now exceeds the testing rate. The curve will arificially flatten, the reality will not.

[Pancho]

Perhaps they got bored testing people? Active case is often just a reflection of how many people are tested.

[michael adams]

The percentage rise is indicative of the number of accumulated cases as against the pool of potential new victims. And nothing else.

Italy had already accumulated a large number of cases, and at some point the law of diminishing returns will kick in as the number of potential victims, susceptible people who haven't already been infected starts to fall.

The fewer the number of infected people, the larger the number of of potential victims who remain to be infected , and so the higher the percentage of new infectuions.

michael adams

...

[Pancho]

Italian tested Active cases = 0.06%. So we don't appear to be there yet, even if the true figure is under reported 100 fold.

[Brian Gaff (Sofa 2)]

Yes it works but in the end you do not want it to be perfect either. Somehow you have got to allow all your citizens to encounter it, but control the number with complications that need hospital treatment. Its a very hard balance to make when you consider that the effect of any measure takes the best part of a month to show in the figures.

Brian

[John_j]

We have just seen that it does, in china.

That?s only possible in a police state like china.

Odd that you just have with the closed schools.

You're free to top yourself any time the urge takes you.

[Michael Chare]

It is frequently admitted in the UK, particularly after they stopped testing people who thought they are infected and following up contacts. Further some people have barely noticeable symptoms.