O/T: Sandy

[Lew Hodgett]

For all you folks getting ready to crawl into a "huricane hole" and wait Sandy out, my thoughts are with you.

Best of luck.

Lew

[Leon]

As are my wishes but my gut is telling me that this is not going to be the "epic" storm that the forecasters are making it out to be. The weather people seem to for get that hurricanes need warm water to form and grow. Typically once a cold front blows through the gulf coast hurricane season pretty much over. But, hurricane season is not "officially" over until the calendar says so.

[dpb]

On 10/29/2012 8:54 AM, Leon wrote: ...

I don't the the "weather people" at NOAA forget anything at all about what the mechanics of hurricanes and extra-tropical storms are...Sandy is feeding off the Gulf Stream off the east coast and is already something quite out of the ordinary simply owing to the breadth for the location and the coincidence of the cold front it's going to run into has some serious potential...and given that it's going to make landfall at or near high tide in the generally most-populated area of the country means the impact will be beyond its actual measured strength. And, of course, even after the winds drop below hurricane or gale strength flooding can be a _very_bad_thing_ from excessive rainfall inland and combined w/ surge near coast. I wouldn't underestimate it a bit, meself...

From NOAA hurricane center forecast discussion--

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[Leon]

Well simply lots of rain, and not from a hurricane, can have the same flooding effect. Winds barely qualify this storm as a hurricane and it slips in and out of hurricane status. IMHO the only thing that will make this a costly event will be from dense population.

And I have never heard of a hurricane feeding off of any thing but warm water. Perhaps the Gulf Stream is helping to steer the storm rather than give it strength.

Frankinstorm just seems to be a bit of an over exaggeration of the storm. Now that "every" tropical storm gets a name these days rather than only the actual hurricanes being named, only exasperates the excitement and fear factor.

There was a time when you only heard of storms names beginning with a,b,c,d,e but now we routinely hear of storms names being in the far end of the alphabet with no more land falls than 30`40`50 years ago.

I don't doubt that this could be pretty tough but the way it is being described from my neck of the woods is that this could very well be the end of the world as we know it.

[Swingman]

In my best Nailshooter/Hispanic accent: It's Butch's fault ...

[Han]

Swingman wrote in news:79OdncHTNt4bOBPNnZ2dnUVZ [e-mail]:

It is starting to blow and rain here near the extreme NE corner of NJ, and the center is still 100's of miles away. Irene was bad here not because the winds were that high, although we had pretty bad power outages. It was so bad because of the flooding from streams and rivers overflowing (and because people had built in flood plains). Here they expect not that much rain (still plenty for the area), but winds that cause power outages and the long lingering they expect that will keep power company crews from fixing the problems. PSEG has already said they don't really expect to start fixing problems until Wednesday or Thursday, and it may take them a week or 10 days to finish. Whether the prediction is to lower expectations after the twin disasters last year of Irene and the freak snowstorm, or a more realistic approach, I don't know. SO far, so good here, though.

As far as fault - the US has far greater amounts of overhead power and other utilities than in (denser populated) Europe. Anytime there are winds over 30 mph, branches break and cut power lines. Apparently the repeated costs of fixing these things (including the need for large standby crews) is less than simply investing in underground wiring. Just one little pet peeve.

[Swingman]

Here's hoping you have the same experience we had with Rita a few years back ... but without the 107 _evacuation related deaths_ and super-hyped evacuation hysteria whipped into a froth by ill advised government edicts and media sensationism (well, too late for the latter) ... we spent the evening Rita hit rocking on the front porch drinking a bottle of wine, and I had to water the yard the next morning.

[dpb]

Well, duh! That's what the Gulf Stream is--a current of warm water running up along the east coast...

As for the flooding potential, much of the damage potential is wind-driven storm surge combined w/ excessive rainfall potential. The unique thing of Sandy is the conjunction w/ the other strong front onshore that has serious potential on its own. I takes the source of oceanic moisture in such copious quantities as Sandy will provide to have the precipitable water potential that exists as a result in this storm system.

Having been thru the results of Camille in SW/Piedmont VA in '69 and on rescue/recovery of the aftermath, these events are nothing to sneer at.

That the cable weather folks need air-time filling content is a pity, agreed but there's where any fault lies, not in official NOAA forecasting. If the masses were of any help in taking care of themselves in very high percentages, then the government efforts to try to get people to take precautions en masse could be less, granted. Given the propensity of folks to not do so unless coerced almost mandates extreme action on their part. That plus it's a given that nobody has complete prescience on what actual consequences are going to be a priori means one in a position of responsibility _must_ err if anything on the side of excessive caution as opposed to the alternative course of lack of action/warning.

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[Lee Michaels]

Just some observations and musings about this storm and reactions to it.

Most of the financial markets are being shut down for two days. This hasn't happened since 9/11. From what I have read, there has been a lot of things put into place that would allow the markets to continue, regardless of power outages, etc. It boiled down to the fact that most folks who work on wall street take the subway. And since the subway was shut down, they had no way to get to work. And the SEC (Securities & Exchange Commission) decided the markets should be shut down for "worker safety". Which is something that has never been done before. (Storm Powers for the SEC?)

I suppose that it is better to be safe than sorry. And I also realize that this particular storm is a total mutant/hybrid type of thing. And I just wonder what the average New Yorker in an apartment type of dwelling is actually going to do if the power goes out and transportation is not restored soon. It seems to me telling everybody we are going to shut down the city in the next day hardly gives anybody any time to stock up on supplies, etc. Particularly for those folks who don't have cars and have to depend on public transportation.

It might be a tangent, but all those greenies never talk about a world with mass transit and bicycles having to deal with a major weather event. Can you see trying to stock up for a big storm with only a neighborhood deli available to your 5 story walkup apartment? I sincerely hope this thing is not as serious as they are screaming about. Cuz there is no predicting what could happen if New Yorkers get cooped up and cut off from basic supplies for awhile. It could get ugly.

And the other big question, of course, how will it affect the elections? Does major storm damage help the republicans or the democrats. Since I DO NOT engage in political discussions, I will leave that alone. My observation is that the major campaigns are looking at this closely and having to react the best way they can. Also, all the incumbent governors, mayors, president, etc will be very involved in managing this crisis. How does THAT affect the elections? Does it help or hurt them? Active management versus campaigning, which is more effective in the last week?

Can anybody remember a major weather event just before a national election? Or a party convention cut short by another storm?

We live in interesting times.

[Lee Michaels]

"Swingman" wrote

Is that because you drank too much wine the night before? ;)

[Roger]

With all the other preparedness, just remember a text message has a greater chance of going through to let everyone know you survived than does a voice call. Would suspect a lot of phone lines and power lines will be down before it is all over with. Good luck !

[Han]

Swingman wrote in news:ndmdnYB9AtDVKBPNnZ2dnUVZ [e-mail]:

So far, so good, still. Sandy is supposed to make landfall around 6PM, an hour from now. Then it'll go inland slowly and curve around to the north and northeast west of here and then towards Maine. The lights have flickered a tiny bit, twice. There is a bunch of people out of power a few miles east. There has only been about 1/2" rain, but pretty strong wind gusts, increasing in strength. So far it is not cold at all, ~60°F. The hullabaloo is about the expected huge storm surge on top of the bimonthy spring tide (full moon tonight). That's why the subways shut down, as well as some tunnels. A number of bridges are also shutting down, including the George Washington and Tappan Zee bridges, major east west crossings of the Hudson river.

We could go to the Dutch House for diner (it's walking distance), but we have been eating too much lately, and there is plenty of food in the fridge.

[Han]

"Lee Michaels" wrote in news:508ed755$0$7683$c3e8da3$ [e-mail]:

Much of Wall Street isn't physically on Wall Street anymore. But some of it are in other precarious places (from the point of view of flooding) in New Jersey etc. In addition, the physical floor trading is still on Wall Street and acts (I think ...) like a sort of reality check.

It is a whole set of unlikely things to happen at once (as I said somewhere before). Again, the flooding is the big problem. For instance, they had to evacuate the 18-story Manhattan VA because it is in Zone A at 23rd and First.

Apparently bad things happened during a blackout years ago. Then during another blackout everything was hunkydori. Better policing and experience?

We will find out, and then it will take the pundits 4 years of fighting to settle it.

[Leon]

Actually the markets are not being shut down but as you said the human traders will not be there.

No I don't thinks so, simply a late season storm. It has rain and wind just like any other storm. No odd elements added.

And

New York has seen far worse than this, remember 911? And they have had multi hour black outs in the past

It seems to me telling everybody

I suppose you have never been in a situation like this. You DO NOT tell the public to go stock up last minute. If you are not already ready, it is too late to stock up now. That would make this storm tragic. There would be countless deaths from the panic. Take a look at Houston in Sept 2005 when the idiot forecasters added their scary adjectives and half of Houston was stuck on the highway and the storm was a nonevent for Houston.

Again, you don't stick up last minute, you prepare months in advance and stay prepared.

Not at all, the winner has already been decided.

What crisis, nothing has happened yet.

How does THAT affect the elections? Does it help or hurt

Umm remember the republican convention in Florida a few weeks ago with a hurricane headed that way?

All times are interesting times.

[Sonny]

There's already snow in Ohio. Once the front goes through, those northeast= ern folks will be contending with freezing weather, I suppose ice all over = the place. Factor that into the mess, too. It ain't gonna be fun for them= , no matter how bad or not bad it is.

About 20-25 yrs ago the same kind of storm went up the east coast, just not= via the Atlantic. It went up the east side of the Appalachians, dumping r= ecord snows all along the way.

Sonny

[Leon]

It is because even an enormous category 5 hurricane does not reek devastation at it's edge. You typically have to be with in about 50 miles of the eye to see any serious/sustained hurricane force winds. Add to that if you are south west of the storm you get very little wind and rain unless you are within about 50 miles of the center. Every storm is different but this particular storm, Sandy, is a baby hurricane/tropical storm. If the storm stalls there will be lots of flooding. If it continues to move as fats as it has been it will likely be a rain event.

[Stuart]

Well, here in the UK our forecasters are predicting you getting a storm surge of about 3.5m, 300mm of rain and the possibility of up to 1m of snow following on in some areas. They also say unlike normal hurricanes this storm could last for as much as 3 or four days

[Leon]

LOL yeah DUH. I forgot that the gulf stream was a water current, not wind current. Gulf Stream is an airplane however. ;~)

I think if the ocean water was 20 degrees warmer and or maybe the timing

2 months ago there would be some potential of a bad storm. If this turns out to be a remembered event, it will not be because of the storm so much as not being prepared for a storm.

Agreed, but we along the coast think in terms of wind damage. This storm is not a strong one. And if we are counting personal experience storms, I call Carla 1961, Beulah 1967, Celia 1970, Alicia 1983, Ike

2008, and numerous tropical storms including Allison in 2001 that was particularity devastating to many and a non event for many others. Allison was a rain event that lasted 10+ days with in excess of 36" of rain in one week. I do not recall there being any wind at all.

[dpb]

On 10/29/2012 6:12 PM, Leon wrote: ...

...

Well, that's simply nonsense. What, specifically, would you have the metro areas do, move?

Camille dumped 24-36" in only 2 days or less in a very mountainous region w/ nowhere for it to but down the valleys. I personally saw places I had known for several years that had prior to that night of flooding been towns and small mountains of as much as 2-300 ft that completely disappeared. It doesn't necessarily take wind to do a lot of damage altho it is obviously a different kind of damage.

Everybody who has been through a severe event or is in an area of a given type of disaster thinks theirs is the worst--and certainly a Cat >1 hurricane is an event but don't think that just because this isn't that high of wind it can't be serious enough or is to be disregarded as a non-event.

In essence, don't pretend (or worse really believe) you could sit there in the same conditions unscathed because you've been elsewhere.

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[dpb]

...

...

Well, as I posted from the NOAA discussion this morning it _does_ have some rare coincidences of being both a very large tropical cyclone that is approaching and going to merge w/ a strong warm/cold front almost directly at the time of landfall. That is, indeed, while not unheard of, a rare event and has potential for some serious consequences.

As of 5PM EDT, the discussion behind the scenes is that the transition from tropical hurricane to extra-tropical cyclone has occurred but there's still plenty to be concerned over regarding the flood conditions. I didn't look up surge heights altho heard on one news report that a fair amount of damage has occurred along the Atlantic City boardwalk area...

Just because it _could_ have been a Cat 1 or 2 and had more wind associated doesn't mean it still isn't a major event.

It does appear from what I can see that the real cold may be just far enough behind to avoid a really serious snow event in the northern sections simultaneous altho I was watching the NC coast warnings earlier since elder son is in Raleigh area and noticed they're expecting snowfalls in the multi-feet range in the mountains...

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