TOT: will Nissan survive?

Mar 04, 2025 Last reply: 1 year ago 13 Replies

I am looking at buying the electric Nissan Micra once it is released.



However, I see that Nissan has fallen out with Renault (who are due to manufacture the new Micra), the French government and the previous CEO (who escaped from Japan in a music box and now lives in Lebanon). Also, it it seems that merger talks with Honda have broken down with one report suggesting that in a Trumpian move Honda is demanding the resignation of the (present) Nissan CEO as the price for resumption of talks. According to AI, the company has lost $60 million in its last quarter and has "12 or 14 months to survive" without a new investor.



Any thoughts on whether the new Micra will be built at all and whether there would be a material risk of the warranty collapsing (which would be very significant for the batteries in an electric vehicle)? Also, is it likely to be mechanically the same as the Renault 5 (which would at least ensure continued availability of parts)?


Your guess is as good as mine... but the Micra is supposed to be built on the same AmpR Small platform in the same French factory as the Renault 5, so chances are there's some degree of parts commonality. How much depends on how bespoke Nissan want to make it. I'd guess probably a good number of wear parts will be shared, with styling and interior being different.

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about 50% of parts of the AmpR Small (formerly CMP-B EV) are shared with CMP-B cars like the Renault Clio.

I'd be tempted just to buy the Renault 5 instead. Or some other EV.

Theo

Thanks. I'm starting to think along the same lines.

The Micra has been announced today. First look video:

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It seems like it shares a huge amount of parts with the Renault 5, so I'd guess it'll only be exterior body panels that are different. As they're all made in France at Douai, I wouldn't be surprised if Renault continue to make them even if something happens to Nissan.

The factory tour is well worth a watch, by the way:

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Theo

Thanks. I will do. I have signed up for the pre-release publicity.

On a separate note, should Nissan go into administration, would this invalidate the warranty? This would be very bad news indeed in the event of a battery failure. Do you think it would be possible to insure the warranty against this administration of the grantor?

You do realize, that perfectly-solvent companies have reneged on the warranty on BEV. They do this by claiming they are "unable to make replacement battery packs" and to go suckit. I don't see how the Nissan situation would materially make that worse than all industry participants. They would just have a different excuse to give you, before telling you to go away.

The reason batteries fail, is "bad technique". A BEV should have a heat pump, and should attempt to manage the operating temperature range of the batteries. This may shorten the range, while doing so, but by avoiding extremes of operating conditions, the batteries are more likely to make it to old age.

Another thing that makes a difference, is usage pattern. Driving to work a short distance every day, and using a weak home charger, is ideal for a BEV. Doing one long distance highway drive after another, charging at 350kW, that is hard on the battery. In fact, one design, it keeps track of how often you fast charge. If you do it four times in the same month, it denies fast charging and you sit at the charging station on the side of the highway, charging at a lower rate. And you don't get your 20 minute wait or your 43 minute wait, the wait is a lot longer. The car computer does this, as part of its "warranty gymnastics". This is also why a certain brand of car has been tampering with the odometer, to "sweeten" the warranty claim conditions. if you have "suddenly used up all your miles" on the warranty, you'll not be making a warranty claim for a knackered battery. The odometer is not mechanical.

A thing to hope for, would be "standard" packs that charged exactly the same way. Then, a company could not make an excuse that it "could not make a pack", when the standard packs of the epoch, would be after-market items. As it is, when you change out a pack in a BEV, there is a "priestly ceremony" not available to many, where the car is "married" to the serial number on the new pack. You can't even screw in a replacement pack your own self -- it will not charge, it will not work. Only with the correct software and garage facility, can you change a vendor pack and have the car recognize it as a valid item.

Paul

This guy seems to have managed to save himself a lot of money:

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$5K Nissan Leaf 62kWh Battery Upgrade

Chris

Thanks. I was not aware of this. If it is a Chinese vehicle, no doubt Mr Trump can do a deal.

  1. Do you expect the battery pack to be the same as the Renault 5 built in the same factory? This would allow an 'each way' bet on the availability of the traction battery.
  2. My original question: do you think it would be possible to take out insurance against administration of the manufacturer?

Renault, fairly sensibly, seem to be using a few common batteries on the Renault 4, Renault 5, Alpine (and supposedly Nissan/Mitsubishi too) cars. They're all physically the same size regardless whether they're

40/52/70 kWh capacity.

I should think in future, 3rd party garages could replace batteries amongst the whole family of cars?

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Thanks. I shall ask questions about the battery in my research.

How long do you think it will be before someone comes up with the idea that like trains electric cars should have a mid-life refurbishment?

Yes, the chassis is the same as the Renault 5 and batteries are made by AESC on-site at Douai.

I couldn't speak for software interlocks, but a battery from a scrap R5 should be a straight swap. I would imagine the electronics are all R5 underneath, ie you need to use Renault tools and not Nissan tools to talk to them, in which case I wouldn't expect software incompatibility between Micra and R5 batteries. ie the Micra is the R5 in everything except body panels.

I haven't looked, but the R5 has been around long enough that there might be some info in the salvage community now how to swap batteries (eg car flooded out, replace with one from crash vehicle). This is not Renault's first EV and it's possible the coding procedure (if any) will transfer from their older models - the Zoe is very well understood at this point.

That means your insurance against Nissan going pop is that you can pay a third party garage to do a battery swap from a crashed vehicle, and then try to claim that cost from somebody.

I suppose you could find an underwriter to take that bet, ask a broker. Or take out a third party warranty - you'd need to read the small print (it probably tells you to claim on the manufacturer warranty first).

Theo

Would a claim against the administrators qualify?

Some vehicles aren't designed for maintenance.

Any time the pack is used as a major structural member, it cannot end well for you.

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204 kWh

At that size, you'd want to leave that pack alone. And hope the vehicle just rusts out :-)

For smaller cars, this sort of idea and work, is more of a lark.

Paul

It's already happening - you can already buy third party new batteries for EVs like the Mitsubishi iMIEV and hybrids like the Prius. They have more capacity and more modern chemistry than the OEM ones, which is why you might pick them over a replacement OEM one.

In some markets it makes more sense - eg the iMIEV one is from Australia. In our market road salt may well cause the car to rust before the 200-400k mile life of the battery is done. The competition is always another used car and it's harder to justify upgrading a 20 year old car compared with buying a newer used one. In other markets new car tax is very high and refurbishment is attractive.

But for commercials like rubbish lorries, tipper trucks etc it absolutely makes sense - the expensive bit is the chassis and the mechanicals, so why wouldn't you refurbish rather than scrap 100k worth of vehicle? The same goes for some custom domestic cars like campervans. It's not EV specific - engine swaps for these aren't uncommon.

Theo

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