will tool and wood prices soar (was Re: Fahrenheit 11-8)

On Thu, 27 Oct 2016 09:20:28 snipped-for-privacy@michigan.mi wrote:

i dunno it is all a charade
demagoguery they will say what ever they think you want to hear
we will still have the same badly politically managed economy
what will tool and wood prices do
that is what i want to know
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On Tue, 1 Nov 2016 13:50:48 -0700, Electric Comet

They will move in the opposite direction as the economy, in general. In 2007-2010 there were loads of tool sales, as contractors were sucking wind. Wood, probably less so because it'll keep on the tree until times get better (and there will always be the uber-rich to spend the big bux).

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On Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 3:52:35 PM UTC-5, Electric Comet wrote:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-rate-hike-decision-november-2016-fomc-17 2400359.html
From an article on the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes.
"The Fed’s cautious, yet generally positive, economic statement fol lows a slew of improving data, including strong retail sales, solid IS M manufacturing gains and better-than-expected labor force participation. T he unemployment rate has hovered around 5% for the past year—a leve l many economists consider to be near full employment. Meanwhile output gro wth has gained momentum. Real GDP is estimated to have increased 2.9% in th e third quarter.
Inflation, which has run below the Fed’s 2% target for years,"
Despite what people imagine and pretend to see, the US economy is doing pre tty well. Not great, but good.
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How many years? At 2% it would take about 36 years for prices to double.
My pocket book tells me that prices are about 2.5 times - or more - what they were 20 years ago, nowhere near what the government claims. For example, in 1996 I could buy a gallon of paint thinner for less than $2.00; now, it is $9.98. I could buy a senior ticket to a movie for $3.00; now it costs me $7.50.
However, inflation is great for debtors, the federal government being at the top of the heap. BTW, federal debt in 1996 was a bit less than 1/4 of what it is currently (5.2 billion vs 19+ billion).
IOW, the government's CPI doesn't reflect the real world.
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On Wednesday, November 2, 2016 at 3:14:40 PM UTC-5, dadiOH wrote:

0;

it

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at

http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid1609.pdf
Go to page 87 of this PDF and you can see the annual percentage inflation f or the past 45 years. Couple pages above and you can see the annual inflat ion for the prior 56 years before that.
Here are the annual inflation rates since 2005. 2005 3.4 2006 3.2 2007 2.8 2008 3.8 2009 -0.4 2010 1.6 2011 3.2 2012 2.1 2013 1.5 2014 1.6 2015 0.1
The CPI is comprised of normal everyday items people purchase. It shows th e change in prices for a basket of these goods. Not sure if housing, gasol ine, etc. are included or not. Some of the inflation rates include or excl ude these types of items. It is what the average person buys. The CPI wou ld not capture the cost of living for an over the road truck driver who sle eps in his cab and eats at diners and never pays utilities or does anything else except drive. And the CPI would not work for an 80 year old wood wor ker who lives off the grid and eats day old bread and peanut butter only an d uses tung oil and hand planes and chisels and hand saws only. AVERAGE Am erican is the key here. CPI is applicable to most people. Paint thinner? Senior movie tickets? Does the average American buy these items? None of my friends do. My parents could buy the tickets if they ever, ever, ever went to the movies. They don't so its inapplicable to them.
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http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid1609.pdf
Go to page 87 of this PDF and you can see the annual percentage inflation for the past 45 years. Couple pages above and you can see the annual inflation for the prior 56 years before that.
Thank you buI know where to find such.
The CPI is comprised of normal everyday items people purchase. It shows the change in prices for a basket of these goods. Not sure if housing, gasoline, etc. are included or not. Some of the inflation rates include or exclude these types of items. It is what the average person buys. The CPI would not capture the cost of living for an over the road truck driver who sleeps in his cab and eats at diners and never pays utilities or does anything else except drive. And the CPI would not work for an 80 year old wood worker who lives off the grid and eats day old bread and peanut butter only and uses tung oil and hand planes and chisels and hand saws only. AVERAGE American is the key here. CPI is applicable to most people. Paint thinner? Senior movie tickets? Does the average American buy these items?
Probably not but the average American doesn't have college tuition & fees (one of the items in the CPI) either; nor cigarettes; nor propane, kerosene and firewood. Here's the whole list... http://www.businessinsider.com/breakdown-of-consumer-price-index-basket-2014-1
Here's another link...income over a span of time. Pay attention to the median. In 1995 it was $16,650. Last year - 20 years later - it was $29.930. If you plug $16,650 into an "inflation calculator" for 1995 and ask for the 2015 equivalent it will spit out $25,894. Do you really believe that real median income has increased by more than $4,000? I don't. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/central.html
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They are not. The problem is that the "basket" keeps changing, depending on what the government wants to show. Several years ago, steak was replaced by hamburger (both are meat, after all) to keep the cost of food in the basket the same. Gasoline was included, until it was approaching $5. Then not.

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I meant to add that it's not one party that does it. Both sides have a strong interest in keeping the official CPI (and interest rates) down.

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Personally I'm making about twice what I was making in 1985. In 1985 I felt like I was struggling to make ends meet. Now I don't feel that way. So no, I don't buy the argument that living expenses have doubled over the past 20 years.
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On 11/5/2016 5:59 AM, J. Clarke wrote:

Anecdotal evidence is sketchy. I just looked at what I made in 1985 and I've more than doubled it, but in 1986 I had a $6000 increase. In 1985 I was just getting by, but in the interim, two teenagers moved out of the house, the house has been paid for etc. I also have more money in my savings account than ever in my life but got less than 50 cents in interest last month. In 1985 I had enough to cover upcoming taxes but got a couple of bucks for it.
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It's also cherry picking. I didn't get a raise (though I did change jobs with some change in income, up and down) for fifteen years and they've been minimal since. If picked that period, it would have made everything look worse.
That said, I'm in much better financial situation because, as you allude to, as we age the non-discretionary part of our income tends to go down. A house purchase fixes a big chunk of the monthly expenses to that time. It's the greatest inflation hedge there is. As we've seen, it's not 100% safe, if you're forced to sell at the bottom (not much different than any other investment). Add to that the increase in the value of my homes (living in the 4th), over that time (~6x), and I'm in good shape, and that will be paid off in a matter of months. However, none of this helps the kid just entering the market.
No, anecdotal evidence isn't good and it's easy to ignore the details.
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On 11/05/2016 10:21 AM, krw wrote:

I think if you look at the records historically the Stock Market has grows about 10%/yr on the average since about 1900. Since Sept 28, 2008 when pelosi reneged on the home loans and caused current depression the market has grown significantly less that that (18000-14000)/14000 = 3.5% per year. (Yes I know there are other ways to calculate it but that is the simplest, and you can not look at what was left after pelosi and obama were done with it in March 2008 when it the market lost 40% of its value. )
If you look at the trend of the stock market from 1976 through 2008, the market should be in the 20000's possibly as high as 25000.
While the Stock market does not equate to the growth in the economy, it reflects the economy. Further if you look at the reason the stock market is even as high as it is, its growth has been fueled by the purchase of company's rebuying it stock. Bottom line companies can not increase their sales so it makes sense to buy back their stocks when they are relative lows.
The economy has grown historically at 3.5% per year. This is somewhat driven by the population growth. Again the growth rate for the last 8 years has been about half that.
Coupled with the raise in the national debt, 8 Trillion to nearly 20 trillion, in the coming years we are going to see inflation rates (12 to 16%) similar to the Carter years, then you will realy see you wages increase.
This last eight years has been an economic disaster, and it will take the US decades to recover, if we don't go the way of Greece.
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On Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 11:44:18 AM UTC-5, keith snipped-for-privacy@sbcglobal.net wrote:

%

President Obama was elected president in November 2008. He did not become president until January 20, 2009. You cite September 28, 2008 and March 20 08 above. Obama was a Senator at that time. Yet Obama is to blame? Not R epublican George Bush, who was actually president in March and September 20 08.
When citing stock market gains or declines, always go from January 20 of in auguration until January 20 when the person is not president. Only use the days the person is president.
Hundreds of thousands of new jobs created each month, wage increases recent ly, inflation at almost nothing, stock market increasing every year, fewer people without health insurance. How will we survive this terrible hardshi p?
The US economy is about even now. Ground level. It was at the bottom of a hole when Obama took over eight years ago. His policies have gotten the U S out of the hole and back at surface level. Another eight years under the old regime would have put the US three times deeper into the hole. People always seem to ignore that fact. Funny.
http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices/table/by-year This is a table showing the S&P 500 stock market index since its beginning. I have taken the average since January 1, 1900 until November 4, 2016 and calculated the average return to compound. It is 5.07% annual return. Ha lf of your fantasy 10% return. When giving numbers that can be verified, p lease do not pull them out of your arse. Use facts.
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In article <2b4066aa-df94-42fe-9144-
@yahoo.com says...

His formative years might have been the early '70s when you could get 10 percent on triple-A bonds.
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On Sat, 5 Nov 2016 05:59:00 -0400, "J. Clarke"

Likewize. My earnings have been pretty static over the last 20 years. My expenses have gone down since the kids have left home, I'm not twice as bad off as I was then - for sure. Food prices have gone crazy - I'm sure I could never afford to buy my house at today's prices, but tools have come down in price, as has technology. New car prices have hardly changed - etc etc etc.
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On Sat, 05 Nov 2016 16:35:26 -0400, snipped-for-privacy@snyder.on.ca wrote:

Cars have gone up significantly in 20 years but they're also dramatically better cars.
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When I left Toyota in 1989 a new corolla wagon was Can$ 16,900.A sedan was about $200 less. Equivalent in position todat would be a Kia Forte 5? at $19,500 and that includes alloy rims, a 2 liter engine instead of a 1.8 - and it is direct fuel injected with double the horsepower, and bluetooth and all that other new tech that didn't exist back then. - or a Mazda 5 - which is a bigger vehicle yet at $21,000 - or a Hyundai Elantra GT at $18,000.
Again , all more powerfull, better mileage, larger vehicles with a whole crapload of techno-toys added - for $2000 extra. A good set of alloy rims and performance tires back then was more than $2000.
So, I wouldn't say the price has gone up "significantly"
And used car prices have not gone up either - and they are much better 5 year old cars now than back then.
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On Sat, 05 Nov 2016 22:53:41 -0400, snipped-for-privacy@snyder.on.ca wrote:

Come on! You're comparing a Toyota and a Kia/Hundai? What does the Toyota cost?

They're much better because interest rates entice people go buy new cars, depressing the price of used cars. Five years ago, the situation was a little different (loans were hard to come by, driving up used car prices).
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snip

The Hyundai / Kia are the same "position" as the Toyota was in 1989.- and higher quality.

I bought both of my current used cars 5 years ago - and got the best deals I've gotten in 20 years. (here in Canada - not USA) And one of them was a dealer car - only the second used car I've bought from a dealer in over 30 years.Just got a car for my brother's father-in-law a few weeks ago. A few more miles than the one I bought - same car 4 years newer - so virtually "the same car" - $2000 less than what I paid for mine. - bought this one from an independent used car dealer, bought mine from a Ford dealer. (Ford cars)
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On Sun, 06 Nov 2016 19:21:13 -0500, snipped-for-privacy@snyder.on.ca wrote:

Nonsense. If you'd said 1979, maybe. Huyndai/Kia (same company) may be better cars than the Toy of '79, but they're no Toyota. The minivan is particularly atrocious. Your logic is the same one the government uses to tell us that hamburger is the same thing as steak.

Five years ago was at the end of the "cash for clunkers" era but even then, loans were hard to come by, few had money for new cars, and used cars went for premium $$. OTOH, there were spectacular deals on new cars.
No question that used cars are tanking now. With interest rates and "free" money all around, new cars are flying off the showroom floors. All of the makers are posting records.
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