On Thu, 27 Oct 2016 09:20:28 firstname.lastname@example.org wrote:
i dunno it is all a charade
demagoguery they will say what ever they think you want to hear
we will still have the same badly politically managed economy
what will tool and wood prices do
that is what i want to know
They will move in the opposite direction as the economy, in general.
In 2007-2010 there were loads of tool sales, as contractors were
sucking wind. Wood, probably less so because it'll keep on the tree
until times get better (and there will always be the uber-rich to
spend the big bux).
On Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 3:52:35 PM UTC-5, Electric Comet wrote:
From an article on the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes.
"The Fed’s cautious, yet generally positive, economic statement fol
lows a slew of improving data, including strong retail sales, solid IS
M manufacturing gains and better-than-expected labor force participation. T
he unemployment rate has hovered around 5% for the past year—a leve
l many economists consider to be near full employment. Meanwhile output gro
wth has gained momentum. Real GDP is estimated to have increased 2.9% in th
e third quarter.
Inflation, which has run below the Fed’s 2% target for years,"
Despite what people imagine and pretend to see, the US economy is doing pre
tty well. Not great, but good.
How many years? At 2% it would take about 36 years for prices to double.
My pocket book tells me that prices are about 2.5 times - or more - what
they were 20 years ago, nowhere near what the government claims. For
example, in 1996 I could buy a gallon of paint thinner for less than $2.00;
now, it is $9.98. I could buy a senior ticket to a movie for $3.00; now it
costs me $7.50.
However, inflation is great for debtors, the federal government being at the
top of the heap. BTW, federal debt in 1996 was a bit less than 1/4 of what
it is currently (5.2 billion vs 19+ billion).
IOW, the government's CPI doesn't reflect the real world.
On Wednesday, November 2, 2016 at 3:14:40 PM UTC-5, dadiOH wrote:
Go to page 87 of this PDF and you can see the annual percentage inflation f
or the past 45 years. Couple pages above and you can see the annual inflat
ion for the prior 56 years before that.
Here are the annual inflation rates since 2005.
The CPI is comprised of normal everyday items people purchase. It shows th
e change in prices for a basket of these goods. Not sure if housing, gasol
ine, etc. are included or not. Some of the inflation rates include or excl
ude these types of items. It is what the average person buys. The CPI wou
ld not capture the cost of living for an over the road truck driver who sle
eps in his cab and eats at diners and never pays utilities or does anything
else except drive. And the CPI would not work for an 80 year old wood wor
ker who lives off the grid and eats day old bread and peanut butter only an
d uses tung oil and hand planes and chisels and hand saws only. AVERAGE Am
erican is the key here. CPI is applicable to most people. Paint thinner?
Senior movie tickets? Does the average American buy these items? None of
my friends do. My parents could buy the tickets if they ever, ever, ever
went to the movies. They don't so its inapplicable to them.
Go to page 87 of this PDF and you can see the annual percentage inflation
for the past 45 years. Couple pages above and you can see the annual
inflation for the prior 56 years before that.
Thank you buI know where to find such.
The CPI is comprised of normal everyday items people purchase. It shows the
change in prices for a basket of these goods. Not sure if housing,
gasoline, etc. are included or not. Some of the inflation rates include or
exclude these types of items. It is what the average person buys. The CPI
would not capture the cost of living for an over the road truck driver who
sleeps in his cab and eats at diners and never pays utilities or does
anything else except drive. And the CPI would not work for an 80 year old
wood worker who lives off the grid and eats day old bread and peanut butter
only and uses tung oil and hand planes and chisels and hand saws only.
AVERAGE American is the key here. CPI is applicable to most people. Paint
thinner? Senior movie tickets? Does the average American buy these items?
Probably not but the average American doesn't have college tuition & fees
(one of the items in the CPI) either; nor cigarettes; nor propane, kerosene
and firewood. Here's the whole list...
Here's another link...income over a span of time. Pay attention to the
median. In 1995 it was $16,650. Last year - 20 years later - it was
$29.930. If you plug $16,650 into an "inflation calculator" for 1995 and
ask for the 2015 equivalent it will spit out $25,894. Do you really believe
that real median income has increased by more than $4,000? I don't.
They are not. The problem is that the "basket" keeps changing,
depending on what the government wants to show. Several years ago,
steak was replaced by hamburger (both are meat, after all) to keep the
cost of food in the basket the same. Gasoline was included, until it
was approaching $5. Then not.
Personally I'm making about twice what I was making in 1985. In 1985 I
felt like I was struggling to make ends meet. Now I don't feel that
way. So no, I don't buy the argument that living expenses have doubled
over the past 20 years.
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
Anecdotal evidence is sketchy. I just looked at what I made in 1985 and
I've more than doubled it, but in 1986 I had a $6000 increase. In 1985
I was just getting by, but in the interim, two teenagers moved out of
the house, the house has been paid for etc. I also have more money in
my savings account than ever in my life but got less than 50 cents in
interest last month. In 1985 I had enough to cover upcoming taxes but
got a couple of bucks for it.
It's also cherry picking. I didn't get a raise (though I did change
jobs with some change in income, up and down) for fifteen years and
they've been minimal since. If picked that period, it would have made
everything look worse.
That said, I'm in much better financial situation because, as you
allude to, as we age the non-discretionary part of our income tends to
go down. A house purchase fixes a big chunk of the monthly expenses
to that time. It's the greatest inflation hedge there is. As we've
seen, it's not 100% safe, if you're forced to sell at the bottom (not
much different than any other investment). Add to that the increase
in the value of my homes (living in the 4th), over that time (~6x),
and I'm in good shape, and that will be paid off in a matter of
months. However, none of this helps the kid just entering the market.
No, anecdotal evidence isn't good and it's easy to ignore the details.
I think if you look at the records historically the Stock Market has
grows about 10%/yr on the average since about 1900. Since Sept 28, 2008
when pelosi reneged on the home loans and caused current depression the
market has grown significantly less that that (18000-14000)/14000 = 3.5%
per year. (Yes I know there are other ways to calculate it but that is
the simplest, and you can not look at what was left after pelosi and
obama were done with it in March 2008 when it the market lost 40% of its
If you look at the trend of the stock market from 1976 through 2008,
the market should be in the 20000's possibly as high as 25000.
While the Stock market does not equate to the growth in the economy, it
reflects the economy. Further if you look at the reason the stock
market is even as high as it is, its growth has been fueled by the
purchase of company's rebuying it stock. Bottom line companies can not
increase their sales so it makes sense to buy back their stocks when
they are relative lows.
The economy has grown historically at 3.5% per year. This is somewhat
driven by the population growth. Again the growth rate for the last 8
years has been about half that.
Coupled with the raise in the national debt, 8 Trillion to nearly 20
trillion, in the coming years we are going to see inflation rates (12 to
16%) similar to the Carter years, then you will realy see you wages
This last eight years has been an economic disaster, and it will take
the US decades to recover, if we don't go the way of Greece.
On Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 11:44:18 AM UTC-5, keith email@example.com
President Obama was elected president in November 2008. He did not become
president until January 20, 2009. You cite September 28, 2008 and March 20
08 above. Obama was a Senator at that time. Yet Obama is to blame? Not R
epublican George Bush, who was actually president in March and September 20
When citing stock market gains or declines, always go from January 20 of in
auguration until January 20 when the person is not president. Only use the
days the person is president.
Hundreds of thousands of new jobs created each month, wage increases recent
ly, inflation at almost nothing, stock market increasing every year, fewer
people without health insurance. How will we survive this terrible hardshi
The US economy is about even now. Ground level. It was at the bottom of a
hole when Obama took over eight years ago. His policies have gotten the U
S out of the hole and back at surface level. Another eight years under the
old regime would have put the US three times deeper into the hole. People
always seem to ignore that fact. Funny.
This is a table showing the S&P 500 stock market index since its beginning.
I have taken the average since January 1, 1900 until November 4, 2016 and
calculated the average return to compound. It is 5.07% annual return. Ha
lf of your fantasy 10% return. When giving numbers that can be verified, p
lease do not pull them out of your arse. Use facts.
Likewize. My earnings have been pretty static over the last 20
years. My expenses have gone down since the kids have left home,
I'm not twice as bad off as I was then - for sure. Food prices have
gone crazy - I'm sure I could never afford to buy my house at today's
prices, but tools have come down in price, as has technology. New car
prices have hardly changed - etc etc etc.
When I left Toyota in 1989 a new corolla wagon was Can$ 16,900.A
sedan was about $200 less. Equivalent in position todat would be a Kia
Forte 5? at $19,500 and that includes alloy rims, a 2 liter engine
instead of a 1.8 - and it is direct fuel injected with double the
horsepower, and bluetooth and all that other new tech that didn't
exist back then. - or a Mazda 5 - which is a bigger vehicle yet at
$21,000 - or a Hyundai Elantra GT at $18,000.
Again , all more powerfull, better mileage, larger vehicles with a
whole crapload of techno-toys added - for $2000 extra. A good set of
alloy rims and performance tires back then was more than $2000.
So, I wouldn't say the price has gone up "significantly"
And used car prices have not gone up either - and they are much better
5 year old cars now than back then.
On Sat, 05 Nov 2016 22:53:41 -0400, firstname.lastname@example.org wrote:
Come on! You're comparing a Toyota and a Kia/Hundai? What does the
They're much better because interest rates entice people go buy new
cars, depressing the price of used cars. Five years ago, the
situation was a little different (loans were hard to come by, driving
up used car prices).
The Hyundai / Kia are the same "position" as the Toyota was in 1989.-
and higher quality.
I bought both of my current used cars 5 years ago - and got the best
deals I've gotten in 20 years. (here in Canada - not USA)
And one of them was a dealer car - only the second used car I've
bought from a dealer in over 30 years.Just got a car for my brother's
father-in-law a few weeks ago. A few more miles than the one I bought
- same car 4 years newer - so virtually "the same car" - $2000 less
than what I paid for mine. - bought this one from an independent used
car dealer, bought mine from a Ford dealer. (Ford cars)
On Sun, 06 Nov 2016 19:21:13 -0500, email@example.com wrote:
Nonsense. If you'd said 1979, maybe. Huyndai/Kia (same company) may
be better cars than the Toy of '79, but they're no Toyota. The
minivan is particularly atrocious. Your logic is the same one the
government uses to tell us that hamburger is the same thing as steak.
Five years ago was at the end of the "cash for clunkers" era but even
then, loans were hard to come by, few had money for new cars, and used
cars went for premium $$. OTOH, there were spectacular deals on new
No question that used cars are tanking now. With interest rates and
"free" money all around, new cars are flying off the showroom floors.
All of the makers are posting records.
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