OTish: plane maintenance

Any aviation buffs/experts out there have any ideas about how a prolonged open-ended shutdown might affect commercial air travel from a mechanical perspective ?
Presumably grounded planes still need a degree of certified maintenance to remain airworthy ?
Will tyres start to suffer if left too long and develop flat spots ?
How long can a plane remain grounded before it needs additional checks and maintenance ?
And irrespective of the availability or otherwise of the planes will airline pilots start losing certification due to simply not flying enough hours ? Presumably requiring a degree of refresher training before being allowed to carry passengers again ?
Just been debating, and it seems some people think that in a few weeks they'll be jetting off to wherever, just as normal, why wouldn't they.
Myself I can see airlines simply having to shut up shop. If not down to the economics of keeping a fleet of airplanes safe, then because anyone travelling in future is probably going to need a *lot* of insurance before they are allowed in anywhere.
I am aware a lot of the issues above "go away" if the certifying agencies (FAA, CAA) just "make them". However the 737Max debacle (which is another depressor on airlines) shows that tends not to end too well.
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On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 14:01:13 +0000, Jim GM4DHJ ... wrote:

Apples and oranges, really. Unless you tried *very* hard, there's a limited number of people you can kill with a car (although the UK has an interesting precedent on that one ...).
But a fully laden airliner with 300+ souls on board managing to come down in a densely populated area ...
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On 22/03/2020 13:50, Jethro_uk wrote:

Non-issue I'd have thought. It will be an opportunity to carry out maintenance, pilots can still train in simulators.
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On 22/03/2020 14:16, newshound wrote:

It's slightly difficult to stay 2m apart in a sim but other measures are possible. Revalidation/renewal of ratings after a lay-off shouldn't be a huge problem.
Yes, ongoing maintenance will be required unless the aircraft are flown to the desert and formally taken out of service (unlikely). Once again, apart from the financial cost, this shouldn't be a huge problem. What *will* be painful is getting the whole air transport business going again, and developing processes to stop it much more quickly than this time when the next pandemic threatens us - the next one may be more unpleasant and "globalisation" needs a rethink.
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On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 14:47:59 +0000, nothanks wrote:

I think what will do for the entire mass tourist long-haul industry will be the requirement that *all* travellers are able to demonstrate they are able to self isolate in the event of a similar outbreak, and the associated cost of insurance which would provide that. I suspect it would pretty much double the cost of even the most basic weekend jaunt to a European city. Bearing in mind part of that insurance load is going to cover the loss of job for someone who went for 3 days, and got stuck for a month.
That's before you factor in whether some countries suddenly decide they aren't quite as keen on inviting foreigners spreading diseases as they once were. (Maybe UKIP were prophetic in this case :) )
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Should make it cheaper if you're retired then as there's no loss of income! :-)
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Chris Green
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There's almost [this being Usenet] no such thing as travel insurance which pays that kind of consequential loss.
--
Roland Perry

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On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 17:57:53 +0000, Roland Perry wrote:

As I said, I can't see the days of mass globetrotting returning anytime soon. Hence the need for a massive global airline industry is also questionable ...
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Having gone on holiday or a week in the 70's and returned to my car to find petrol impossible to obtain (I forget which particular crisis) I've always had at the back of my mind "if transport/fuelling infrastructure fails suddenly, how will I get home from this trip".
People thinking about buying EVs might well take heed.
Of course the big losers here will be those less prosperous nations whose economy is built upon tourism. Meanwhile we Brits will have to make do without sunshine breaks.
--
Roland Perry

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On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 19:57:39 +0000, Roland Perry wrote:

But as long as the grid runs, you're safe from fuel shortages ..
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On 22/03/2020 21:29, Jethro_uk wrote:

Not once everyone has smartmeters and smartchargers. At that point they can shut down charging to ensure the lights stay on. At the moment they have to ensure that there is sufficient capacity, but they don't want to invest in that.
SteveW
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Are you surprised? So far this year we've had a 5 or so day period in Jan, and a 2 or so day period in Feb, when renewables were for those time periods providing 3% or 4% of the instantaneous demand during those periods. So far my renewable-freak rellies have avoided giving any sensible answer to the question: what is the plan for backup during such periods? In Jan/Feb this year, during those two periods, coal was doing about 5GW, nuclear about 6.5GW, gas was at I dunno 25GW or so, and with a bit of import we got through what Mike of this Parish described as "squeaky bum time".
Anyone want to suggest what the answer might be? Any answer containing the word "batteries" will earn a swift kick in the nuts.
--
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On 22/03/2020 22:34, Tim Streater wrote:

I know someone who bought a Tesla powerwall. It's set up so when the grid goes off he can keep running standalone. He watches the prices, charges when it's cheap and sells it back when the price is high.
Apparently it has a 5 year guarantee, so it's not his problem if it dies before then. After that it will have paid for itself.
On a domestic scale batteries might work. Country wide though, not a hope.
Andy
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On 23/03/2020 21:35, Vir Campestris wrote:

who sells electricity at a variable price rate then?

--
In a Time of Universal Deceit, Telling the Truth Is a Revolutionary Act.

- George Orwell
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On 24/03/2020 06:05, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

That's not showing the whole story - I think it's the one called "tracker v1".
Andy
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They won't, unless there's trend to start converting front living rooms into somewhere to park the car.

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Roland Perry

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If you think queues at petrol stations when there's a shortage in the wind were bad, you'd see 10x the effect at EV chargers. (Remember, the bit you snipped was about trips starting far from home).
--
Roland Perry

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On 22/03/2020 13:50, Jethro_uk wrote:

I remember in my younger days being involved with a military trials aircraft that was used with periods of no flying of maybe a month or more. The maintenance crew would routinely tow it around hanger apron so that seals in the hydrolytic system etc. didn't start degrading and leaking.
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On 22/03/2020 13:50, Jethro_uk wrote:

I used to own an aircraft that was certified for commercial use. Although I had a private pilot's licence, that allowed me to hire it out for pilot training. Maintenance of things like engines and airframe depended upon hours flown, rather than hours spent sitting on the ground. Airlines have maintenance crew whose job it will be to keep other aspects in working order while the fleet is grounded. Indeed, the ground crew may welcome the chance to spend longer on each aircraft than they normally would.

It is unlikely to be a factor unless the fleet is grounded for more than a year.
--
Colin Bignell

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Yes, I was messaging someone today who thinks their transatlantic trip in May (all paid for, we didn't discuss where refunds might come from) was still even vaguely possible.
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Roland Perry

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