OT Brave New World?

Sent to me by Email.

It's rather long but very interesting. Mo

An interesting read................ > FUTURE PREDICTIONS: Robert M. Goldman MD, PhD, DO, FAASP > In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper > worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they > went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in > the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 > that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again? Yet > digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pix els, > but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a > disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got > mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial > Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printin g, > agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome t o the > Exponential Age. > > Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years. > Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the bi ggest > taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the > world, although they don't own any properties. > > Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in > understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the > world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already d on't > get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for mor e or > less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% acc uracy > when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% > fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already > helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. > Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces > better than humans. By 2030, computers will become more intelligent than > humans. > > Autonomous Cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the > public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. Yo u > don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will > show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need > to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive wh ile > driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. > It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for tha t. We > can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die eac h > year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 k m, > with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That > will save a million lives each year. > > Most car companies may become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the > evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies > (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a com puter > on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they a re > completely terrified of Tesla. > > Insurance Companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the > insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model wi ll > disappear. > > Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, peopl e > will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood. > > Electric cars won?t become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy > because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly > cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 > years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was > installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much th at > all coal companies will be out of business by 2025. > > With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now o nly > needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only > have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can h ave > as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost. > > Health: There will be companies that will build a medical device (called the > "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your > retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 > biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a > few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicin e, > nearly for free. > > 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to > $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All m ajor > shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are alread y 3D > printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that > eliminates the need for the large number of spare parts they used to have in > the past. > > At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibili ties. > You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In Ch ina, > they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of > everything that's being produced will be 3D printed. > > Business Opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask > yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the ans wer > is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your > phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th cen tury > is doomed in to failure in the 21st century. > > Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot > of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a > small time. > > Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farme rs in > 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of wo rking > all days on their fields. Agroponics will need much less water. The first > Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than > cow-produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used > for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several > startups that will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contain s > more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source " > (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects). > > There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. > Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you > are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when the y are > telling the truth and when not. > > Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the defaul t > reserve currency. > > Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per yea r. > Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The > increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one ye ar > increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably wa y > more than 100. > > Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asi a. > Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyon e has > the same access to world class education. > > Robert M. Goldman MD, PhD, DO, FAASP >
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> World Chairman-International Medical Commission > Co-Founder & Chairman of the Board-A4M > Founder & Chairman-International Sports Hall of Fame > Co-Founder & Chairman-World Academy of Anti-Aging Medicine > President Emeritus-National Academy of Sports Medicine (NASM) > Chairman-U.S. Sports Academy?s Board of Visitors > > FREE Health Longevity info newsletter at: >
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Reply to
harry
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It's unlikely that this is because the computer is smarter. It's just a lot faster, so it can run the algorithms already developed 50 years ago more quickly, and so can look 50 moves ahead instead of 10.

Using *what* for batteries? AIUI, there is no magic battery technology waiting in the wings that will give us an energy density greater than diesel. Or do you know better?

Those of us old enough will remember those early 50s predictions of us all owning cars that convert to gyrocopters.

Reply to
Tim Streater

In the 1960s when I started in computers there were numerous predictions, most have proved wrong. The biggest mistake was that all menial jobs would be taken over by computers by the year 2000. In fact that did not happen, it was mainly middle class jobs that disappeared, for example payroll clerks and draughtsmen.

Reply to
Broadback

Star Trek put the faster than light travel invention in 2019. I somehow doubt that will be achieved.

I think its more likely that robots will be fighting wars and maybe we will have designer humans as our leaders sooner than one might think, both are theoretically possible now. You are already finding that drone attacks make war less messy for the person who uses them after all, and Talis and other defence companies have robot soldiers in development that can withstand almost direct hits by munitions. Brian

Reply to
Brian Gaff

Many good points, many mistakes. I'm sure we will see society change massi vely as computers get more capable.

which is what smart human go players do

Gripping & manipulating by computer has proven harder than expected, and th at prediction I'm sure underestimated the challenge of dealing with things when they don't go to a simplistic plan. But these are being tackled, and o nce solved it will at some point be bye bye manual labour in the 1st world.

NT

Reply to
tabbypurr

Humans are not getting quicker, whereas computers are. I don't believe a human could look 50 moves ahead. Even if they could, the computer will be able to look 100, 200 ahead and the human will be left behind.

Reply to
Tim Streater

There is actually. Here is just one possibility.

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In any case, 95% of journeys are within present electric car ranges.

Reply to
harry

...If you then take the car off the road for ages to recharge. Hardly very practical for a taxi fleet.

NT

Reply to
tabbypurr

Which is not as energy denbse as a lithium cell.

Harry is talking bollox as usual. The best possible battery known is lithium air. It would rival diesel if it could actually be made cheaply and safely or able to deliver any decent power.

Probably at least 20 years away, if at all.

No. The likely market for plug in hybrid or BEV is the affluent suburban second car market where it does short hops to the school and the supermarket and then spends the rest of the time on the drive, or where hubby uses it to get to the station, plugs it in there, and drives it back in the evening.

Reply to
The Natural Philosopher

"Usually considered for stationary applications".

It does talk about use in cars, but that requires (in order to get a decent range) that you be able to drive up to a pump and refill your two electrolyte tanks. So there's an infrastructure issue.

Is anyone developing this for use in cars?

Reply to
Tim Streater

Don't be silly. Imagine the work needed to set up a brick laying robot on the average building site. Etc. Or to re-plumb your house.

Of course automation will continue to increase in factories, etc. It is very good at doing repetitive tasks. But adapting quickly to different circumstances and conditions will still be a human function for many a year.

Reply to
Dave Plowman (News)

Not as much as for pure electric cars. We already have all the technology and a large and well developed infrastructure for handling liquids. Unlike reinstalling the electricity grid from scratch and building another zillion power stations to power electric cars.

Reply to
Huge

Sure - but it would still have to be built (at each petrol station, I mean). And then it turns out that one of the fluids is a long-term poison, or not all car manufacturers get on the same chemistry bandwagon etc etc.

Reply to
Tim Streater

Petrol stations already have a full re-build every few years - to replace the tanks etc. So adding different ones would be a bit easier than increasing our entire generation and distribution system to cope with the widespread use of electric vehicles.

Reply to
Dave Plowman (News)

much like any other app then. Computers can already process plans.

Of course. And equally obviously as bots can do more year by year, we will let them.

NT

Reply to
tabbypurr

A plan is a plan. It doesn't necessarily represent reality. A bit like the armchair PoP designers I used to have to deal with, who'd expect you to use their plan that fits the kit in the rack alright but only because they'd assumed that cables have zero thickness.

If the plan incorporates false assumptions, the computer will be f***ed. The on-site human, OTOH, will be able to adapt.

Reply to
Tim Streater

If you've ever done any, take yourself through the process of bricklaying. Materials needed etc. And the conditions on a building site. Following a plan for the building is about 1% of the process.

Reply to
Dave Plowman (News)

When bots can do the necessaries, we will let them. They aren't there yet. Each year they get better and can do more. The advance in ability is expone ntial, and people routinely fail to grasp how much things change in computi ng. Prototype bots already build houses. None of this is news, or any surpr ise. It's singularity 101 stuff.

NT

Reply to
tabbypurr

y practical for a taxi fleet.

Charge overnight while you are in bed. You're not clever are you? Especially for a non-owner.

Reply to
harry

very practical for a taxi fleet.

Well turnip, the possibility with flow batteries is to change the electroly te to "charge" the battery.

Reply to
harry

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