OT: Drop in value of homes

This is related to a news story I watched on a Cable TV news show:

The story had the value of homes in California dropping more than 15% in some communities.

And since there are several CA people reading this NG, I though I would ask---

Is there any tracking between the drop in the value of homes, and the quality of the house construction? All of us here know there are good, better, and just barely passed code house constructions. Therefore, I would presume when the across the board values drop, the less desirable constructed (built) homes just might drop more. And the value of quality built homes just might hold up more.

But, and this is just a guess, that it also just might be Location, Location, Location for the value of a house.

Any one from California know if there is a difference between shoddy and good construction making a difference? Or is it still all style and no substance dictating the revised value of homes.

Phil

Reply to
Phil-In-Mich.
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Phil-In-Mich. wrote: ...

I'm not in CA but it's not just a CA phenomenon.

The problem is simply one of demand at the previous price isn't there to continue to support the inflated prices.

An obvious piece of crap will be difficult to sell but as for these "evaluations" that has little or no bearing on how those were determined--any property is worth what somebody will give at the time the owner is wanting to sell.

--

Reply to
dpb

I'm in Las Vegas. In my Zip Code there were over 400+ foreclosures...recent.. The next code over is just as many. In the north Valley there were over 700 defaults in one Zip code... first in the nation(?)..

The CA prospectors in NV, are about 65% of the defaults and foreclosures..abandoned ship... They came into the game to late or didn't get out when necessary.

Builders in NV have reduced building. Owner/Builder makes out best right now. Many workers are not greedy and want to build houses. I think the builders suffer at this time.

In my location; it is cheaper to build your own house.

I'm a mile or two from the LV strip. Not really worried about the value of the home, can you hear rebound?!

-- Oren

Reply to
Oren

We live on the gulf (channel, waterfront). Four years ago, one owner doubled his money in less that two years of ownership. One unit had major remodeling, new kitchen; the other just flooring. The latest buyer, different unit in same condo, spent 6 mos. redoing the interior. He bought at top-dollar, just before the bottom fell out of the market - has an open house every weekend. My hubby paid $105K twelve years ago .... the "open house", upstairs, not facing the water, is priced around $500K. There has been talk about allowing 90' boats to anchor in the channel, and that is a lot larger than even the wealthier of the neighborhood folks. If 90' boats are allowed, then the remaining older homes will be torn down to make way for more McMansions. Lot of folks with a lot of money have no class at all, and it shows.

Reply to
Norminn

according to network news last nite, friday over 10% of all hoeowners with a mortage owe more than what their home is worth. the forecloser mess is causing price drops nationwide. as home prices go lower more give serious thought to walking away.

the government should do a one time bailout, of the industry and buyers to stop the home prices tanking.

my family in phoenix reports builders going bankrupt, as what buyers there are getting cheap foreclosed homes.

we are in a major recession the government wouldnt admit too.......... fearing it will make it worse

with all the foreclosed homes nationwide home building is slowing to a crawl, puuting all those construction workers on the unemployment line

Reply to
hallerb

By the government, you mean me, the taxpayer. I did not cause this problem and do not wish to pay for it. As for the construction workers, let them go back to Mexico ;)

Reply to
Frank

Location is one key factor in home valuation. If you have a small no frills house in a desirable neighborhood it is worth way more than an overbuilt luxury home in a slum.

Location and square footage being equal, a house in good shape and built to last will always bring more money than one with sagging roof timbers and cracked plaster.

On a general note, the folks taking it in the shorts are the folks that bought to speculate, and those that bought that had no business buying a house they could not afford. If a buyer purchased a home at the top of the market and has a fixed mortgage that they could afford the payments, then even though the present value of the home may be less than they paid, time cures all wounds.

As an example When I moved to this area in 1995 I was talking to a guy that was grousing that he had paid $75k for his home and he could not get that back at present so he was thinking about walking away from the home.

At the recent top of the market, the same home was going for over $300k. Assuming a 15% drop from the top, the $300k home would be worth $255k, giving the $75k buyer a nice chunk of change anyway.

The places that really take big hits is when the reason for living in a place goes away. There the markets do not rebound for a long time because there is a big lack of demand. Think about the rust belt as an example. While $300k would not buy much of a house here, you could buy an older 2 bedroom home in some places in Indiana for less than $20k.

Reply to
Roger Shoaf

They are still selling houses here in SW Florida but the builders are dropping prices about 20% and throwing in things like country club memberships for free.

Reply to
gfretwell

Roger:

That's about what I was thinking when I wrote my original post. I live in a suburb of Detroit, and while there is a drop in home value across the board here, it seems that the homes Way, WAY, out in the ex-brubs with 50 minute drive time (one way) to work are dropping in value more than the small lot, 1950's, 60's and 70's single family homes in the close in suburbs of Detroit.

But it could also be the homes in many of this suburb are better built that some of the housing building tacks further out from the jobs.

I take a tank of gas about once every 7 or 8 days. Some others I know, do

3 tanks of gas per week; they are noticing neighbors leaving their homes. My neighborhood has not a single vacant house; homes from the 1960's.

I was just asking because the Cable TV news story was talking about some California communities being hit very, very hard by drop in value of homes, homeless (from other communities) taking up residence in abandoned houses, and so forth. These development tract communities are way out in suburbs.

Phil

Reply to
Phil Again

(snip)

Fancy McMansion /= 'better built'. Even in the cookie-cutter layer of the housing food chain, a lot of the 1955-1975 era houses have better interior finish since anything built since then, short of a high-end custom house. Hardwood floors, clear-grain casings and trim with tight corners, even the occasional built in cabinet was not unknown in that era.

But having said that- I think the McMansions and more recent cookie-cutter 'house of many gables' subdivisions are taking the biggest hits, especially the ones with the long commutes and huge lots. The most recent half-dozen or so subdivisions around here are hurting big-time, with deep, deep discounts on the new spec houses fighting the fire-sale prices some of the upside-down first wave buyers are offering. Many of the later phases in these subs are years behind schedule- the banks won't write the paper when half the lots in the first phase aren't even sold, much less built on. With the number of jobs around here going down, some of these subdivisions never WILL get built out all the way.

But this is NOT a new phenomena. I see traces of the same thing in some older subdivisions around here (and in other cities I have spent time in), from 20, 40, even 60 years ago. Little stub streets ending in dirtbanks, obvious infill houses with styles 20 years newer than their neighbors, the legal plat name not matching the sign out by the road, etc. It all goes in cycles. The trick is to make the high and low points in the cycle match the points in your life when you need to buy and sell. And if you live in a balloon area, never try to ride the bubble all the way to the top.

aem sends...

Reply to
aemeijers

I don't own hoes, so I'm not a hoeowner.

Like 911 and what others before....airlines? Keep bailing..libtards?

In Florida; it is reported folks are live under bridges.

Sugar will go down in price when Castro is dead.

Just to poot it another way; pick and find your next home.

-- Oren

Reply to
Oren

Value of a home has noting to do with quality of construction. It has everything to do with what people are willing to pay. Yes, location is a big factor. The same exact house built with say, $100k in material can sell for $150k in rural Nebraska or $1.2 million in San Diego CA, near the water.

My house has fluctuated in value over 15% recently, but so what? I'm not selling or buying so it is meaningless. Only when I decide to sell will it matter a bit, but if the house I want to buy is also up 15%, we still come out about even. From what I've seen and read, home values are getting back in line closer to what they should be. It was too easy to buy and people were getting in over their heads based on nothing but the hope to re-finance before the big balloon hit. Ooops.

Reply to
Edwin Pawlowski

If you got a conventional 30 year fixed mortgage, the fact that the house is now worth less doesn't mean you suddenly can't pay the mortgage. The people who are screwed, did it to themselves. They took out adustable mortgages, which in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing. But they took out ones that had artificially low teaser rates, like 2%. In many cases they did this because they wanted to just pay the low rate for a year or two, then flip it and make a lot of money. Contrary to misleading media reports, this mostly isn't due to rising interest rates due to market forces. At the time they took the mortgage, they could have asked how much the payment would be if the mortgage were adjusted to the then current market rate. And the answer in most cases would have been 7%, not the 2% teaser rate. And now with rates having declined again substantially, the ARMs are coming down again. But they aren't gonna go back to the artificial 2% teaser rate.

So, now with the ARMS having adjusted to the real rate, having put 0 down in many cases and the property not having gone to the moon, many of these people want out. And plenty of them can pay if they had to. But, they would rather try to walk away and get out of it, if they can. That behavior is more prevalent today than it was a few decades ago, when people had more sense of responsibility.

Now if you have the govt bail these people out, you do it at the expense of folks who acted responsibly. And you encourage this behavior to continue.

The builders going bankrupt are the ones that over leveraged themselves, similar to what the byers did. They went deep into debt trying to get rich quick and believing the market was going to continue to grow at exponential rates. Here in NJ, the builders that have been around for decades, whether big or small, are nowhere near bankrupt. They are still building homes and starting new projects. The one medium size one that did go bankrupt came out of nowhere in the current cycle and was building projects that were out of control. The company didn't even know if they were making money or losing it on projects, because they couldn't control their own business and costs.

Major recession? Based on what? All the economic reports coming out show an economy that is still expanding, though very slowly. It may turn out that we are in an official recession. That call isn't made by the govt, it's made by an independent board and not until many months later, when all the data is in. If it is a recession, it's certainly a mild one at this point. Despite months of hearing these scare stories of recession, unemployment is just over 5%, which was considered full employment a couple of decades ago. We haven't had a major recession in 25 years. If you remember what the late 70's and first couple years of the 80's were like, that was a major recession. We;re nowhere near that today.

Reply to
trader4

our economy is on the way down a very slippery slope. ever heard of stag flation? inflation with dropping wages and economy.

one cause is NAFTA which cost us much manufacturing.........

when YOU need to sell a home or wonder why your retirement account has dropped.............

remember you didnt want to do anything.

Reply to
hallerb

the reason interest rates and ARMs are dropping is our governments alarm at the economy.

the middle class is being squeezed out of existence

with over 10% of all mortages owing more than the home is worth things are bad.

all the foreclosed owners will have ruined credit for 10 years, thats another drag on our futre economy.

Reply to
hallerb

Sure, that's what we had in the 70's when the govt was doing exactly what you want. More intervention in the economy and high taxes to go with it. As I asked, where is your evidence that supports any of this? Unemployment is at levels that were considered FULL employment a couple of decades ago. Inflation has ticked up a bit, mostly due to the rise in energy prices, but it's still modest.

It's ironic that someone that's asking the govt to bail out speculators is complaining about inflation. When you bail people out of a market that was obviously spiraling upward, what message do you think that sends? Answer: NExt time, buy even more houses or whatever on spec, because if it goes up you win. If it goes south, the govt will bail you out, with money from people who behaved responsibly.

My house is worth over 2X what I paid for it 12 years ago. No problems here, because I wasn't greedy or stupid. As for NAFTA or any import situation, you need to look at both sides of the equation. How many people are better off because they can go down to Walmart and buy a product for $2 that would cost $10 if it were made here? Should they be working longer hours to pay for it? Or should the US economy focus on what we are good at: Boeing, Intel, MSFT, GE, etc and let others make $2 hammers?

I never said I didn't want to do anything. The most important thing has already been done. The FED has agressively lowered interest rates and provided liquidity. Mortgage rates are down. ARMS are down. Bush and Congress just passed a $160Bil tax rebate. What I said was the govt shouldn't be bailing speculators and fools out of bad investment decisions. Oh, and as for retirement accounts, no one has ever bailed me or anyone else out of theirs because they went down. You have evidence to the contrary?

Reply to
trader4
*************************************************** If you got a conventional 30 year fixed mortgage, the fact that the house is now worth less doesn't mean you suddenly can't pay the mortgage. The people who are screwed, did it to themselves. They took out adustable mortgages, which in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing. But they took out ones that had artificially low teaser rates, like 2%. In many cases they did this because they wanted to just pay the low rate for a year or two, then flip it and make a lot of money. Contrary to misleading media reports, this mostly isn't due to rising interest rates due to market forces. At the time they took the mortgage, they could have asked how much the payment would be if the mortgage were adjusted to the then current market rate. And the answer in most cases would have been 7%, not the 2% teaser rate. And now with rates having declined again substantially, the ARMs are coming down again. But they aren't gonna go back to the artificial 2% teaser rate. ***************************************************

I was selling real estate a few years back when 'everyone' was buying a home. There were people who could not qualify for a home that were getting them. Gone was the 10% or 20% down and 30yr fixed mortgage. Most were 5% down, 80% first mortgage, and a new 10%-15% second mortgage, and they tack on some seller helped contribution.

Go back in the past few years and you will see a lot of no money or low money down home purchases. If something happens with a buyer's income, and the whole ball of string will unravel.

It was not uncommon to see a house listed for 100k sell for 107k as the seller would help with a 7k rebate to the buyer. Usually a house had some wiggle room to accept that contribution. Now give it to a buyer who already was on shakey ground, and they may not afford it later.

Had these same people just rented instead of trying to be a homeowner, they wouldn't be in a predicament witha $1k mortgage payment vs a $700 rent payment.

There were also plenty of the ARM stuff going. Basically you qualify for this, so why not get that bigger house you want now. You know in the next few years you are going to be making more with raises at your job, and your spouse is going to be going back to work or get a raise at their job, so you can afford a higher payment in a few years when the rate goes up. So let's get that fancier house!

Well, if your raises don't keep up with the inflation, or you decide with the extra money to go on vacations and buy a new car with the extra money each month since you don't have an extremely high mortgage; you will have trouble making ends meet when that time comes. Toys and vacations are a bad thing for those who 'think' they can do it later.

We are do it now society as opposed to living within our means. Does every house need a $2,000 plasma tv on a credit card? Does everyone person need a new car @ over $20k all the time? Record losses for the auto makers with the latest survey indicating that most cars in families are now 11 years old. Seems right. I have a 9 yr old truck, a 17 year old truck, and a 33 year old car to play in. All paid for and run fine, why buy a new car and go into debt?

I have seen interest rates on loans in the 20% and higher range. Nobody should do those. If you don't absolutely need it, do you need to go in debt to keep up with the Jones'?

In my opinion, I think the wording of a sub-prime mortgage being a 'crisis' is wrong. Banks and lenders gave those loans out knowing the full credit history on the borrower. They have full history on what it takes to own a home. Buyers know what they can afford and should have known they couldn't afford a house if something goes wrong with their finances. Both the lender and the borrower are at their own peril. The banks wanted a profit and risked it by lending money out that the normally wouldn't do; the buyers wanted a home now instead of waiting until they could really could afford it with a down payment large enough to keep the payment normal.

We are now in a time where most Americans will see 3 to 4 major job changes in their careers and your income will fluctuate during those transitions. Gone are the go to work at one company and retire from there. Most will be lucky to even see a company still be around in 30 years.

Wow, just some 2 or 3 cents into a conversation.....:0)

Tim

Reply to
Tim

Similar problems this side of The Pond. Last week headline news was that several banks have withdrawn offers of 125% mortgages!

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Reply to
Clot

"Tim" wrote

Realtor tried that with us but I stuck steady. I also refused the ARM and went best fixed rate we could get. I *should* look at a new fixed rate as mine isn't as low as they go (7.5%) but last time I looked, the buy out to shift was a bit more than we had. We 'qualified' for 170,000 and bought at

83,500. Now worth 140,000 and holding in the current flux, 12 years later.

I can no longer rent a 2 BR/1Bath place for what it costs me to own a

4BR/1.5 bath home with fenced yard in good neighborhood.

I based everything on current earnings with some fudge room if there were problems. My military retitrement check will cover the house (inclusive of taxes and insurance) plus utility bills with 500$ a month to spare. My husbands retirement money is another 1,000$ a month.

We are happy .

Reply to
cshenk

Saw a real nice 40s era house in NC at the height of the housing market. . But five blocks away was the low rent type. It looks like creeping ghetto-ization. That house remained listed for a long time.

Reply to
PaPaPeng

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