If you really want to have a *safe* well operating furance, call you local
HVAC expert. It won't be expensive. Probalby less than $100 including the
In some area's you can call your local Gas Supplier who will perform a
cursive inspection and check to be sure it is safe to operate for free.
What all needs to be specifically done to *your* furance, I don't know.
[Depends how old it is and the type.]
I see statements like that here all the time. Without context, they're
misleading or false. Where I live, we use the furnace a couple of
dozen days a year. Almost no matter how inefficient, it is uneconomical
to replace a furnace before it breaks or becomes unsafe. There are
(cooler) places where similar analysis can be performed on replacing air
The e-mail address in our reply-to line is reversed in an attempt to
minimize spam. Our true address is of the form email@example.com.
Actually the statement that he's giving the utility company free money
because he has a 25 year old furnace isn't correct. Smitty Two
already pointed that out. Sure, he's using more fuel than if he had
a new 90+% furnace, but that doesn't equate to giving the utiltiy
company free money. He's getting gas in return.
Here's a classic web example as far as wrong headed thinking on the
cost effectiveness of energy savings:
"Here's an example: If your refrigerator is 15 years old or older,
replacing it with a new one could reduce your energy bill by five
dollars or more every month: 60 dollars a year. If that new
refrigerator costs $600, you're getting a 10 percent return on your
money -- much more than banks are paying on savings, checking
accounts, or even certificates of deposit. And the extra bonus is that
money "earned" on energy savings isn't subject to state or federal
income tax. A 10 percent, tax-free return on a moderate investment?
That beats leaving potentially savings-producing money like this in a
bank account (where returns are low -- and also taxed)."
Now what's wrong with that analysis? While factoring in alternative
investment rates and even tax issues, It completely ignores the fact
that money in the bank, while earning interest, IS STILL THERE. The
money spent on a new refrigerator is gone. To figure the cost
effectiveness, you obviously have to factor in not only the energy
savings, but also the depreciated cost over time of the new
refrigerator. And last time I checked, you don't get much of a
refrigerator for $600.
So, I agree with those saying you have to factor in a lot before you
say a 25 year old furnace should be replaced for economic reasons.
If it's gas, I don't buy that a 1982 furnace is only 55% efficient. I
would bet if it's been maintained and adjusted correctly, it's closer
to 80%. And if you live in an area with modest heating usage, it's
still working OK, etc, it's not clear to me that you come out ahead by
On Sun, 09 Sep 2007 03:17:04 -0700, firstname.lastname@example.org wrote:
and the problem with your analysis is this: If your bill averages 100
dollars a month over an entire year and you put a new system in and
your bill goes down to say 70 dollars a month that's 30 dollars a
month that you were giving the utility comapny that you did not have
to. Since the average life expectancy of a heating and air system is
15 t0 20 years you are saving between 5400.00 and 7200.00.
Furthermore, if you took 5400.00 dollars and invested it in a 5
percent money market fund you actually realize 11,226.00 over the 15
year life of the system or 14,327.00 over 20 years due to the magic of
compound interest. Further, lets say your money market fund gets taxed
at 30 percent, you still come out ahead at 7859.00 at 15 years or
10,029 at 20 years. So, as I said, your are giving the utility company
free money, period.
Excuse me? Problem with my analysis? I didn't attempt to make a
complete analysis of the economics in the refrigerator, only point out
the most obvious flaw in the website analysis that completely ingnored
the initial outlay for the new refrigerator. You are correct that
you can refine the analysis further, by including compound interest,
which only makes it look worse.
However, now that you want to go deeper into analysis, there are some
very big flaws in your analysis. You're saying you save $5400 in
energy cost over 15 years. You then take that amount and say it
turns into $11K if invested over 15 years. WRONG. Because the
savings of $5400 isn't available on day 1. It only becomes available
at the rate of $30 a month. At the end of the first year, there is
only a little over $360 in your bank account. So, to follow your
analysis, the correct comparison is to see how much you have at the
end of 15 years if you put $30 a month away to earn interest. And at
5%, that is $8k. And then if you want to factor in taxes, you have to
pay tax on it each year, not at the end of 15 years. That reduces
the amount at 15 years to $7K. Oh, and then factor in the present
value of money. Which is to say, your $7k savings at the end of 15
years needs to be discounted back to today to account for inflation.
Because surely you don't think $7k in 2022 is going to be equivalent
to $7K today. Assuming a modest rate of inflation of 3%, that $7K in
2022 is equivalent to a mere $4400 today. Now compare that to the
cost of the new furnace. Hmmm, doesn't look quite as good anymore,
And then you completely ignore the other side of the balance sheet,
assuming the guy has cash sitting around to pay for the new furnace or
put in the bank. How about if he takes out a home equity loan at 8%
to pay for it? Or some other financing at an even higher rate? I
also see no reason to believe that a 25 year old gas furnace that is
in good shape is going to result in 30% lower gas bills. Furnaces
were generally 80% efficient in the 80s. You can get a 90 to 93% one
now. That equates to a savings of about 14%, not 30%. Uh, oh, now
run the above numbers and you're not ahead anymore, you're in the hole
because your 15 year savings are now less than half of what they were
at 30% or around $2K. Think you can get a 90+% system installed for
Oh, and we haven't even factored in the technology involved to get the
93% have we? What happens when one of the widgets that high
efficiency furnace has fails, that the old one doesn;t have, so it
can't fail? In other words, very likely higher maintenance costs.
Bottom line, there is no one right or wrong answer. A hell of a lot
depends on how much his heating system is used, depending on where he
lives, how he finances it, etc.
However how does any of that equate to giving the utility company free
money? You are buying gas or electric from the utility company.
The utility company has to get this gas or electricity from somewhere
and pay for it, don't they? So, how is it "free money" to the
utility company? You can certainly say that you're paying more for
energy than you would with a higher efficiency furnace, but how that
translates into "free money", makes no sense.
On Sun, 09 Sep 2007 11:22:58 -0700, email@example.com wrote:
Well lets assume that both of the analysis are wrong. You still are
giving the utility company free money if you are using a 25 year old
furnace. There is no way it is at 80 percent effeincy, no way.
My company guarntees that on a system that old your utility bills will
decrease by 50 percent on the average over a year. If we tell you it
will and it does'nt then we give you the system for free, period.
I've ran that offer for five years now and NEVER given away a system,
NEVER. Without fail the bill decreases by at least 50 percent. Why?
Because we give that offer on a 93 AFUE , 2 stage, variable speed
furnace coupled with a 19 seer condenser and coil. Then we do a manual
J load calculation to insure the system is sized correctly and we
couple that with with a manual D duct calculation to insure the duct
work is sized correctly. Next, because we are in Calfornia we do a
title 24 duct test and insure that the duct work leaks less than 15
percent. Lastly you are required by us to have double pane windows and
a minimum of R32 insulation.
If you want anything other than that, then the offer of a free system
and a 50 percent savings on your utilities is off the table. Most
people go with the free system offer. For what it's worth, here is
what you get:
Trane XV90I Furnace, Trane XL19I condenser with ARI matching
Evaporator coil, 10 year part and labor warranty, Load calculation,
Duct Calculation, Title 24 compliance, all permits pulled, replace
disconnect and breaker if required, replace condenser pad if required,
replace lineset if required, replace flue and condensate if required,
cart all the junk away and leave your property like we found it. You
get all of this for 8,769.00. Roof top units are slightly more because
of the requirment for a crane.
In addition, Trane often offers rebates as well as the local utility
company. You can't beat the price unless you hire a one man band or a
hack that will be gone in a year.
Bottom line, if you want to keep running that 25 year old system then
by all means, don't let us stop you. Just know that you can do a hell
of a lot better.
No, only your analysis is wrong, as I demonstated to you. I made no
complete analysis, until you came up with one that was obviously
bogus. Take all the savings for the next 15 years that will only
come in slowly, and assume you have them all day one, upfront, and put
it in the bank. Total BS.
You still are
You need to get a better command of the English language. What
exactly is your definition of "free money"? Is it free to the
utility company? No, they provide gas for the money. Is it free
to the payer? I don't think so, that person presumably worked for
the money, so it's hardly free. But it is a nice marketing phrase,
that you;ve obviously bought into.
50% savings? Sorry, but it's total BS. But at least now we know
we're your coming from, which is to sell new systems.
Not surprised, because usually the terms and conditons of such an
offer are next to impossible to meet.
Without fail the bill decreases by at least 50 percent. Why?
Oh, I see now the fine print comes out. Were we talking about an AC
system in this thread? Or just a furnace? And now we have to buy a
93% furnace AND a 19 SEER AC. Hmmm, how much exactly does said
system cost? How about if I live in a moderate climate?
Bottom line, you have something to sell. The OP didn't have an AC.
He has a 25 year old furnace. I'd like to see where someone
automatically comes out ahead by switching from a 1980s vintage gas
furnace that is working fine, to a new higher efficiency system,
regardless of what climate the system is located in.
You didn't even bother to ask that, did you, before you went into sell
mode with "free money"
What total BS,
On Sun, 09 Sep 2007 14:43:25 -0700, firstname.lastname@example.org wrote:
You're either a troll or an idiot, I haven't quite figured it out yet.
Either way, you're not the sharpest pencil in the box. To date I have
sold over a thousand systems that I described. You can believe me or
not, I really don't care. Now go fuck yourself asshole.
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