Hey, this rant of yours had some substance, including some actual facts. Obviously you lack an understanding of the nature of NG rants. Please kill some of your brain cells, or take some being-hit-in-the-head lessons, before reposting. Thank you, that is all. -- Igor
George, as an economist, you are probably an excellent woodworker.
The thing that _really_ scares me is that you are among the tiny minority of voters who even give a damn about economics. Kinda like realizing that the people who devour supermarket tabloids are among the minority of Americans who actually read.
--RC
"Sometimes history doesn't repeat itself. It just yells 'can't you remember anything I've told you?' and lets fly with a club. -- John W. Cambell Jr.
Discounting the fact that "20 or 30 somethings " aren't old enough to have any "perspective" on how much these things have changed, can you be certain that the only reason they are "optimistic about things" is that they are anticipating more SEX?
That might be an interesting story. I live near Coastal Tool and Tools Plus, two independent web vendors. Both say they make a fair profit at Amazon's price, both routinely beat BORG prices. Both vendors existed before Al's 'net, both were savvy enough to get online. Since the item is already there, shipping is included, but they collect tax. Legally, we in CT are required to pay use tax on web and out of state purchases, so technically the tax is a wash.
We've actually had Western Tool move into the state to fill some of Woodworker's Warehouse voids. Woodworker's Warehouse killed themselves.
Woodshop News is full of tool vendor ads in CT, MA, and a large one in "Tax Free NH". WSN may do regional issues as far as ads go, I'm not sure.
I agree with most of what you said, but Amazon is simply one American vendor competing with the rest. Mail order is as old as the mail.
Crap, with the exception of those screwy 4 hour sales, Ballew Tool, Coastal, Tools Plus, Lee Valley, Highland Hardware, Museum of Woodworking, BC Saw, etc... seem to me to be better places to buy anyway.
By "neighbor", I meant American, Canadian, or other free living citizen, that lives in a non-market dumping, free country. For example, bicycle parts plants. The atmosphere there is similar to Lie Nielsen. People who take pride in what they do, and make a product that is top quality. I don't think a Chinese factory is quite the same.
Although, I do avoid BORGs and chain restaurants as well as I can.
My thinking over my 52 years has changed, and as I get nearer to retirement my dream of retiring to woodworking as an income making part time job has vanished also. But it's because everything changes, you can't fight it, you either embrace change and move forward, or fight it. (ten years ago that statement would have pissed me off! Hard to believe I now actually agree with it) Some simple illustrations to my point. How many blacksmiths do we need today verses
150 years ago? How many auto mechanics do we need today verses 100 years ago? How many computer technicians do we need today verses 50 years ago. How many composite lumber manufacturers did we have 30 years ago? Any farmers out there I don't mean this statement generically because I grew up in a farming community, and have friends who are both successful at farming and those who are not. I'm just citing this one real example. I have a relative who is a farmer. He thinks he should be able to make a living farming 100 till able acres, his dad did. But he (son) has his satellite tv, cell phones, and routine eating out, nice home, late model cars, and machinery that get his crops in and out less than a month a year. Gee's, I'd sure like to be able to support my family on 1 month of work a year! But he's hung up that it's the corporate farmers that are driving him out of business. He's lost in the mire of not understanding farming has changed, and if you try to make a farm of 70 years ago produce the same relative income, under the same business model you just can't. Same goes for almost anything our country has in good or services. I do business with a number of small specialty machine shops, they are so busy they can't see straight have been for years, and their making money like they have never made before. Why, because mass production of the same part 100,000 times at a few cents profit is difficult to compete with countries who's economic model is cheaper than ours. But those who have embraced the short run, prototype business, are raking in the money. If you watch tv, or live in the city, you know that many of the "Orange County Choppers" or "West Coast Custom's" are building very expensive custom one of a kind machines, and business is good.
Human nature is to be value minded consumers, if not, Walmart and the likes wouldn't have any business. Your can't fool with free enterprise.
Back to woodworking, those who do very high end custom stuff I suspect are doing better than the one trying to build bookcases.
No flames please, I'm not trying to start an argument, just my personal perspective. If I'm right or wrong isn't important to me, just my 2 cents is all.
When we opened our shop in SF we made $20 the first month. The second month we made $120 thanks to our landlord. The second year we pulled in over $150K. No advertising, no down time, 4 month backlog. You get connected with the group (economic level?) you are aiming for. We wanted high end stuff and that is all we did. Our names were passed around and we had more work than we could handle. max
One of the great lies we tell our kids is that they can train for a job and expect to that job until they retire. With very few exceptions that isn't true any more. The average worker will have 2 or 3 or more 'careers' over the course of their working life.
Sometimes the jobs change names and sometimes they don't, but you end up doing something very different over time.
The smart way to handle this, I think, is to decide what you're truly excellent at -- not just what you're skilled at, but what truly turns you on. That gives you a basic skill set and you have to keep looking for ways to apply that skill set and that level of excellence. I guarantee you it will keep you interested and it's more than likely to keep you fully employed.
I was thinking about this tonight as I was making out invoices for customers. Back in mumblety-mupfh I graduated with a degree in journalism and a minor in advertising. I haven't worked for a newspaper or wire service in 25 years and I never worked in advertising. Today most of my customers are web sites. But I'm still working and, by and large, I'm still enjoying it.
And oh yeah -- there are still a lot of gainfully employed blacksmiths out there.
--RC
"Sometimes history doesn't repeat itself. It just yells 'can't you remember anything I've told you?' and lets fly with a club. -- John W. Cambell Jr.
I'll have to take a ride over the next time I "go home" (Dobbs Ferry). I looked up woodworking places in the phone book last timeI was there, but didn't have the time to visit any of them.
But back to the subject, that still makes the Unisaw the only one of the 3 selling for less than half of list price.
These are listings, not actual sale prices. The Unisaws sell in hours, maybe the owners should ask more. The 1023 was listed for months, I have no idea what the eventual selling price was.
My $400 Jet CS went in about an hour after listing it in the same web / paper ads. More calls were continually coming in as I helped the guy load it up.
My original observation is that people would quickly line up to pay $400 for a 6 year old Jet CS with stamped wings, yet nobody was touching an 8 month old 1023SL, with sliding table, for $600.
If I didn't have a cabinet saw, I would have certainly investigated the $600 Grizzly.
The dollar's only a part of it. Steel prices, even scrap, are at record levels. The price change was known, thanks to some good folks in this forum. It pushed me into a purchase before years end.
You left off the part that applies to the governor - he's one of the undeserving rich, or hoped to be. The dollars spent for "prevailing wage" and "affirmative action" preferences were a definite societal plus. Besides, as you know, it's employment, regardless of output, that counts. It's a liberal Shibboleth - don't you remember how the WPA "pulled the country out of the depression?"
Of course then there's the AlGore modification,where government money should go to "the right people...."
And to the moronic bookend boys who replied so viciously - GOTCHA!
Yabbut, how long will that last? While there is undoubtably "riches in niches", your example is of a very limited market, further supported by the entertainment industry of which they have no control, and is certainly not a market that you can build a national economy upon.
Throwing a bit of history into the mix, in feudal times a business model like that only lasted until favour was lost with the ruling class, or until the ruling class got bored and went on to some other form of entertainment..
... and then there's the GB II modification, where the prez spends huge amounts of money but does not have the morals or courage to collect enough taxes to pay for it (come to think of it, that Ronnie Reagan did the same thing).
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