More noise about climate

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Well said.
The other thing that is NOT binary is the pricing of the finite resources as they become less and less plentiful (whether that's in terms of absolute supply or the costs of extraction, refinement, and delivery).
Or ... simple market manipulation by the monopoly currently in control.
As that cost-to-consumer curve steepens, carnage ensues. We saw it, in micro, as gas reached -- what -- four bucks a gallon, rather recently?
Jobs are lost. Industries are wiped out. LIVES are horrifically impacted.
The much vaunted "market" will take an immeasurable toll on real human beings if we let it play out, vis-a-vis fossil fuels.
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Neil Brooks wrote:

I'm not looking for "if we diddle with this or that", I'm looking for worst case--we make the worst plausible choices with fossil fuels, we use them all up, so there are no longer any fossil fuels in existence to put CO2 into the atmosphere, what happens to the environment? It's a simple question and if the climatologists can't or won't answer it then someone needs to hold their feet to the fire until they can.
Spending trillions of dollars "fixing" a problem when we don't know the consequences of not spending it is _crazy_.
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On Sun, 31 Jan 2010 10:10:09 -0600, the infamous Morris Dovey

Otherwise, we'd be Up Shit Creek Without a Paddle, as it were. We'll have cold fusion before then, I'm sure.

That's highly probable.

As it always has. That's why Thomas Malthus (and his minions such as Paul Ehrlich) got it badly wrong each time.

Perhaps not "being a greenie", but "doing things greener" certainly does. As pollution controls age and die, newer, greener technology is put into its place. Old, dirtier cars die and are replaced by new, cleaner vehicles. Fireplaces are replaced by forced air furnaces which put out much cleaner exhaust. Old coal and fuel oil plants are replaced by cleaner natural gas and nuclear power plants. BubbaJoe now takes his old veeHickle oil/paper/cardboard/cans/glass to the recycling station, etc.

Yes, "green" definitely had gray areas. Peter Huber discussed that in depth in his book _Hard Green_.

And "How the hell do we develop those plans sanely, with all these damned Alarmists screwing things up?"
-- Imagination is the beginning of creation. You imagine what you desire, you will what you imagine and at last you create what you will. -- George Bernard Shaw
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That would take a very long time, and economics would largely prevent it. Coal is extremely abundant, though the ost usable quality is not. You know of course that oil-poor countries such as Nazi Germany and a prior version of South Africa used coal as a basis for producing oil/gasoline. Another conversion process is the well-known conversion of coal plus steam to CO and hydrogen, a mixture that used to be pumped around to homes as cooking gas. SO the question will langish for an answer for a very long time, since nuclear power, wind and water power, as well as solar power will eventually be more economical than fossil fuel power.
Politics will need to steer economics so as to find the most acceptable fuels/sources of power. Hence the debates, and the struggles between economic interests.
Stay tuned <grin>.
--
Best regards
Han
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uy.com:

The hospital I was born in, was right next to a 'Gas Fabriek" They made gas from coal and distributed to people's houses via pipes.... and I'm not that old. I do remember the smell of sulphur. It looked a bit like this:
http://img.mobypicture.com/edaafee47848114ca130f1812dfe4c9e_view.jpg
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Yes I too remember the smell of sulfur by the gasfabriek in Wageningen. What you show in the picture is the reservoir of the gas, which went up and down as the supply increased or was used up.
This is a pdf of a story about Wageningen that you made me dig up (in Dutch): <http://wageningen.sp.nl/docs/070501_1_mei_wandeling_A5.pdf
--
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Han
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"Han" wrote:

-------- Looks just like the one along side the I-405 here in L/A.
Lew
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And like the (in)famous Elmhurst gastanks next to the LIE in Queens.
--
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Han
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Han wrote:

Politics only needs to "steer economics" if not doing so results in something horrible happening. I want to know if that is the case, hence my question. Waffling about it doesn't answer the question.
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You ask for absolute certainty, sir? Please help me hold my belly!! (figuratively, please!).
If there were certainty, we would be really wasting our bits here.
--
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Han
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At the very least, point to a model that can predict YESTERDAY.
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Han wrote:

Who said anything about "absolute certainty"? You're evading.
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On 1/31/2010 10:52 AM, Han wrote:

That would, indeed, be the ideal...
...but I think the reality might be that politics (the acts of politicians and governments) has been a tool used to control economics.

Hmm. Have you closely examined the /effects/ of debate? Have they resulted in real/meaningful/positive changes?
To _whose_ economic interests do you refer?
--
Morris Dovey
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I used the comma and the "and" above to indiccate independent things. Apart from the debates (like we are having here), the coal industry, the oil cartels, the "greenies", and the innocent consumer all are economc interests that want to achieve goals that may somewhere along the line conflict. Let's assume that your solar water pumps become reality on a huge scale. Then the oil cartels might see them (you) as a threat to their sale of their commodity. (I am exagerating of course - I do hope that your pumps become a very useful alternative pronto!!!).
--
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Han
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On 1/31/2010 2:12 PM, Han wrote:

I understood that. I also understand that they aren't exactly independent; and yes - they may, indeed, conflict (a reasonable conclusion since those conflicts have already produced presidential assassinations and toppled entire governments).

The oil folks are unlikely see the pumps as a threat, but the international lenders and the infrastructure/electrical grid builders might - which is one of my reasons for distributing the development to independent teams spread over five continents.
--
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J. Clarke wrote:

From the Romans through the Middle Ages people used wood and charcoal to the extent that there are almost no forests left in Europe. Fortunately, they discovered coal. Coal powered the industrial revolution, but eventually gave way to petroleum products.
When oil becomes too expensive, we'll find something else.
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Han wrote: ...

... But CO2 is also very specific in the wavelengths it absorbs and it doesn't take much to make incremental changes in concentration to have less actual effect. Data indicates concentrations are at point of already being past the knee of the curve. If so, won't make much difference at all either way.
--
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dpb wrote:

What "knee" of what "curve"?
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J. Clarke wrote:

Differential light absorption<-->energy attenuation vs concentration is exponential. Very low concentrations-->high (relatively) attenuation vs concentration but reaches a plateau where adding further makes successively little difference as the particular wavelengths are already heavily filtered. Roughly, it's ~exp(u/x)
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dpb wrote:

Nice bafflegab. Now try it in terms of its environmental effect.
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