Way OT - thoughts on "Peak Oil"

[Leon]

Exactly. I have been very suspect of all these oil company mergers that have been going on the last 5 to 10 years. In the Houston area there were some 8 to 10 major brand filling stations on the late 80's. Now that variety has narrowed down to about 4. If you eleminate half the competition and close half the refineries you have the excuse for the gasoline shortage and the reason gasoline is going up in price. Additionally all the friggin "SpecialNeeds" of the major cities that require specially formulated gasoline for all the seasons chokes production also.

I think the "media" is on the oil and gas company payroll. The media anounces price hikes and true to their anouncements the price of fuel goes up. It is the "only" thing that the media is always correct about. I wish that they were half as correct about the weather.

If the price of oil raises, media is more than happy to

It would seem so.

[Upscale]

You're probably right about that, but considering the increasing need for energy I can't see any single company being able to hold onto the rights to free energy for a sustained period. There's too many people around the world who don't subscribe to patent law. Even in countries that do, use software piracy as an example. Once the cat's out of the bag, it will never be in there again.

[Leon]

Hopefully that is true however we will probably watch the rest of the world prosper as a result. Although the rest of the world probably pays cheap prices for software by disregarding patent laws we still pay the price for that technology. I suspect that we will pay the price for cheaper fuel technology also.

[fredfighter]

Which is solar.

Which is precisely why hydrogen is not viable a source of energy, at least not until controlled fusion technology becomes practical

Practical controlled fusion is estimated to be 25 years in the future, as it has been for the last 50 years.

[George]

The media coined the pejorative "big oil" as they coined the phrase "big tobacco" which you obligingly keep parroting. Ever hear of "little oil," or only "the little guy?" This is how they manipulate fools and sell their product - by telling paranoids what they want to hear, even such obvious half truths like citing "record profits" when the return on investment is actually less, only the dollars are more. The strings jerking your leg are pulled by the media with your consent.

These are energy companies. They sell what they can get a return on, and invest in oil exploration and fund research into alternatives as well. Since they live in the real world, they can't spin giant fantasies about conspiracy and the energy density and safety of hydrogen. Those who are willing to think will recognize water vapor as a "greenhouse gas" as well....

[Morris Dovey]

|| We need to be careful what we wish for. If we had a fundamental || breakthrough that made "free" energy available to all, the || absolutely certain result would be extinction of all life on the || planet. | | Well I don't see your logic there unless you are referring to the | second coming, but I do believe that if it happened all of a | sudden that the world economy would be totally devastated, which | could lead to the extinction of all life on the planet. ;~)

Global warming would be too mild a term for the result. Imagine the consequences of limitless free energy ending up as atmospheric heat (put there by billions of happy consumers)...

| Also, ;~) big oil would never let "free energy " happen.

If the breakthrough actually happened, I'm not sure that anyone could prevent its use. :-(

-- Morris Dovey DeSoto Solar DeSoto, Iowa USA

[fredfighter]

Not a problem.

Meaning no disrespect to you personally but that statement illustrates a profound ignorance of the causes of global change. Hopefully that statement was made in jest.

If the Earth's albedo stays the same then a sllight rise in global temperature would result in the excess heat radiating off into space at a slightly higher rate. So long as the Earth's albedo stays the same the equilibrium temperature stays the same.

But if the Earth's albedo drops due to a change in the composition of the atmosphere, say for example, by increasing the carbon dioxide and methane then thermal equilibirum will only be achieved at a higher temperature--the aptly-named greenhouse effect, so the Earth's temperature will rise to that higher equilibrium temperature.

The energy we liberate from storage or otherwise create and dump into the atmosphere is unimportant as it jas no effect on the equilibrium temperature.

Global warming is predicted by the observed changes in atmospheric composition and NOT by historical trends in temperature. Most people do not understand that because most people do not understand the principle of conservation of energy.

[fredfighter]

British Petroleum bought Solarex, a solar cell research, developement and manufacturing company with a facility (The Solar Breeder) North of Washington DC. Every time I drive by, it's still there. I think if BP can make money selling photovoltaic cells they will and if they cannot they will sell the company.

OTOH there is no return on investment on 'free' energy since, being free, you can't get anyone to pay for it. OTOH there is no such thing as free energy so that's not a problem.

Of course anyone familiar with the properties of common gases understands that water is much more rapidly removed from the atmosphere than is carbon dioxide or methane.

[George]

Au contraire. As the temperature warms, the synergy of greater carrying capacity begins....

[Robatoy]

*Tips hat to Mr. Dovey.*

Hydrogen is being used as a political football. The new buzz-word of energy conservationists. But I do see its uses. Build a few healthy heavy water nukes, and electrolysis will give us an abundance of low-cost, transportable hydrogen.. but.. but.. the by-product of electrolysis is.. *gasp* oxygen!! Too much oxygen makes people light-headed and silly! That stuff can turn you into a football player!! Body-checking at the grocery store check-out!! This cannot be tolerated!! Oxygen will kill us all!... AND the spotted owls!! GOD, what have we done?

*fades to black*

Btw... even though it is 20+ years old... it is one helluva read: The Health Hazards of Not Going Nuclear.

r

=o)

[Morris Dovey]

| Morris Dovey wrote: || || ... || || Global warming would be too mild a term for the result. Imagine the || consequences of limitless free energy ending up as atmospheric heat || (put there by billions of happy consumers)... || || ... | | Not a problem. | | Meaning no disrespect to you personally but that statement | illustrates a profound ignorance of the causes of global change. | Hopefully that statement was made in jest.

Not jest - just plain and simple ignorance with a dose of uncertain logic.

| If the Earth's albedo stays the same then a sllight rise in global | temperature would result in the excess heat radiating off into | space at a slightly higher rate. So long as the Earth's albedo | stays the same the equilibrium temperature stays the same.

(Oh well - off-topic for a penny, off-topic for a pound.) I thought albedo had to do with the reflection of energy not originating on/in the planet - and I thought I understood that albedo could be altered significantly by small planetary temperature changes causing shrinkage or enlargement of our ice caps. What did I miss (or misunderstand)? | | But if the Earth's albedo drops due to a change in the composition | of the atmosphere, say for example, by increasing the carbon dioxide | and methane then thermal equilibirum will only be achieved at a | higher temperature--the aptly-named greenhouse effect, so the | Earth's temperature will rise to that higher equilibrium | temperature.

I can understand that. Are you also saying that androp in albedo can _only_ come about as a consequence of changing the composition, or are other causes also possible?

| The energy we liberate from storage or otherwise create and dump | into the atmosphere is unimportant as it jas no effect on the | equilibrium temperature.

I'm having difficulty accepting this - mostly because I can imagine a scenario in which heat is created faster than it can bleed off...

| Global warming is predicted by the observed changes in atmospheric | composition and NOT by historical trends in temperature. Most | people do not understand that because most people do not understand | the principle of conservation of energy.

Hmm - ok. I tend to think of it as the principle of conservation of mass /and/ energy (although I don't think anyone has yet figured out how to convert energy into mass.)

-- Morris Dovey DeSoto Solar DeSoto, Iowa USA

[Morris Dovey]

| British Petroleum bought Solarex, a solar cell research, | developement and manufacturing company with a facility | (The Solar Breeder) North of Washington DC. Every time I | drive by, it's still there. I think if BP can make money | selling photovoltaic cells they will and if they cannot they | will sell the company.

BP seems to be doing a bit of "foreward thinking". They and a couple of other petrobizies seem to be actively searching the web for alternative energy technologies. I've found their willingness to "think outside the pipeline" somewhat encouraging.

-- Morris Dovey DeSoto Solar DeSoto, Iowa USA

[fredfighter]

Albedo is the ratio of reflected energy to incident energy. The energy not reflected is absorbed, raising the temperature of the body. The rate at which the body radiates energy is proportionate to the fourth power of its temperature. So the temperature of the body rises until the energy it radiates away is equal to the difference between the incident and reflected energy. At that temperature there is equilibrium between the rate at which the body absorbs energy and the rate at which it radiates energy.

Ice snow and clouds also affect albedo.

As you noted, ice and snow affect albedo and so do clouds. But ice snow and clouds change rapdily. The concentration of Carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere changes much more slowly.

Then the temperature would, indeed, rise. However it would only have ot rise a little to radiate off that excess heat.

The total solar energy incident on the Earth is orders of magnitude higher than how much energy we use. I would be astonished if a 1% drop in albedo would not raise the Earth's temperature more than a hundredfold increase in energy use.

[dgadams]

And the interesting thing about Hydrogen is that it likes to combine with stuff which can make it somewhat problematic to store. The nice thing about gasoline is it's ease of storage. I think I heard they've got some solutions to distributing and storing Hydrogen as a fuel. Question is how good are these solutions compared to gas? What's the cost trade off?

D.G. Adams