Re: OT: Murder Rate

Dec 20, 2021 Last reply: 4 years ago 6 Replies
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> >>>> >>>>>> Gentlemen,


>>>>>>
>>>>>>  From my position as an outside observer looking on with dismay from
>>>>>> glorious tax-exiledome abroad (as Mr. Plowman sees it) I can't help
>>>>>> but notice the staggering number murders taking place in Britain >>>>>> these
>>>>>> days.
>>>>>
>>>>> It would be helpful if you could provide the source of your
>>>>> misinformation. Would this be some old encyclopedia?
>>>>>
>>>>>> The kind of thing that would be national news for weeks on end
>>>>>> 50 or 60 years ago is now so commonplace that it barely warrants a >>>>>> few
>>>>>> desultory lines in the local rag.
>>>>>
>>>>> Perhaps the readership don't want to read such things
>>>>>
>>>>>> Something really needs doing (like reintroducing hanging) but no one
>>>>>> in politics is even referencing the problem, let alone dealing with
>>>>>> it. WTF is to be done and why is that bloody useless woman still in
>>>>>> post as home secretary??
>>>>>
>>>>> Why? the homicide rate is pretty stable:
>>>>>
>>>>>
formatting link
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Note the compressed scale. From 2002 to 2021, the highest rate
>>>>> being 18 per million, currently 10.1 per million.
>>>>
>>>> What was it in (say) 1962?
>>>
>>> I assume it is not by chance you have chosen a year with one of the
>>> lowest murder rates in England and Wales during the 20th century.
>>> OTOH, today's rate is about average, or possibly a bit below average,
>>> for the past 40 years.
>>
>> There's nothing in the selection of the year - it's just the year a
>> few years before the penalty for murder was abolished. You may use
>> 1961 or 1963 if you like. Heck, use 1950. Or any year you like from
>> (say) 1945 up to and including 1964.
>
> It is also a period when drug related murders were few and far between,
> unlike today, when nearly half of homicides are drug related. That is
> probably a much larger factor than the abolition of the death penalty.

So you accept that there are more murders nowadays, but argue that if we still had the death penalty, drug-related murderers would excape it?


Says who?


And what relevance does motive have?



>>>>> Given the lockdowns and the concerns over domestic violence, I'm
>>>>> surprised the current rate isn't higher.
>>
>
>

No, that drug related murders are also the reason for the increase.

It matters when trying to reduce the murder rate.

And...?

Why?

...

While the figures show that there are more murders today than in the

1960s, today's rate is about average for the past 40 years and quite a lot better than the peak rate of 17.9 in 2002/2003. The very significant increase in the use of drugs since the 1960s appears to be linked to the increase. Without drug related murders, the rate today would be lower than those of the 1960s.

However, the death penalty is unlikely to make much, if any, difference and you can't reverse that sentence in the case of a wrongful conviction. There are very few repeat offenders, even without it, and its value as a deterrent is very dubious. Stranger killings have a very low clear up rate, so drug gang members are probably at a much higher risk of dying at the hands of another gang than they are of being punished through due process of law, while somebody killing while under the influence of drugs isn't going to be thinking about the consequences.

Tackling the conditions that lead people into wanting to take drugs, such as poverty and poor living conditions, are far more likely to have a long term effect.

But the penalty was abolished (effectively) 56 years ago. Calculating on the basis of the last 40 years fails to take account of the obvious comparisons to be made.

How can you begin to calculate that without reference to what was happening longer ago than 56 years?

Poor lad... never given a chance by anyone... eh?

Gee, Officer Krupke...

The only thing obvious is that, if the death penalty ceased to be a deterrent 56 years ago and the murder rate rose a decade and a half later, there must be a different factor driving the rise.

The rise didn't all happen at once, if that's what you mean.

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