OT: They all admit they were wrong eventually.

Listen to the experts in fitting fire retardant cladding and a tower block burns down.

The problem is finding an economist that has predicted anything correctly in the last decade.

Of course it is. Thats what you voted to do. You won get over it.

You need the EU "passport" to do so. There is no guarantee you will get one if you are not a member. The banks have started to move staff to other EU countries in case we don't get one. Once they are there what incentive is there to bring them back to London? It could cost the UK billions.

So why don't they do so now?

Wait for the usual brexshit about the EU stopping us.

They do. However, the EU erects significant tariffs and non-tariff barriers to protect its businesses from competition. They are reciprocated. And that makes trade harder for both sides.

There are thousands of passports for different services.

Not so. They have established offices in EU27 states in case we go to WTO terms.

Try this: Barclays boss: London's 'gravitational pull' on finance will not wane after Brexit.

So everyone seems to think. The problem being all major markets already have deals with others. Making a deal with us can have the same implications as the EU making a deal. Everything is inter-related. Hence it taking such a long time.

There you go again. Your optimism sadly has no basis in fact. Where are all the countries queuing up for a deal with the UK? India did show some interest - but said it would need free movement of people as part of the deal.

Did you get the figure you quoted for world growth in emerging markets out of your own head, then?

Allow me (although I'm far from an expert - be interested to see other sources):

"47% of UK goods exports went to the EU in 2015, and 53% to the rest of the world. UK goods exports to the EU were worth £134 billion in 2015, or 7.2% of GDP.

Motor vehicles and parts is the largest product group by value of exports: the UK exported £16 billion of motor vehicles (and trailers) to the EU in 2015. The next largest product group exported to the EU is chemicals and chemical products, £14 billion in 2015.

For services, 42% of UK services exports went to the EU in 2015. These were worth £96 billion in 2015. Financial services contributed the most to services exports to the EU, £24 billion."

The Pink Book is a good one-place source - but I find getting consistent data difficult (I don't understand the various weighting and adjustments). Also, services export rankings (UK is no.2), p.49:

Agreed. These things are complicated and inter-related. But consider that when the EU cuts a trade deal it has to satisfy at least 29 different parties - the country being negotiated with and 28 EU nations. And that really does cause slowdowns. Olive growers in Greece can require certain concessions. Shoemakers in Italy can hold out for conditions they feel they need. Etc. And we've seen that trade deals need approval across all 28 - even to sub-regions of Belgium.

By contrast, bilateral deals need agreement basically from just the two sides.

Here are some examples of how long trade deals took - faster and slower:

I was clear which part was opinion. But I will explain the basis of it.

I've not been keeping a list of countries who've indicated a desire to open up new UK trade but someone who has reckons there's over 30 of them. From a quick scan I see: USA, Israel, New Zealand, Chile, Australia, Japan, Gulf states, etc.

The number, however, is largely moot. IMO the UK would not be able to do so many deals in parallel. It would have to prioritise them. I would expect existing EU-brokered deals to be adopted, in the main, because that would suit both sides, and then the UK to focus on specific countries first.

Don't forget that while it may not feel it at times, we are one of the richest countries in the world and have a lot of technical expertise. Countries want access to our markets, our skills, and our businesses.

About 90% of future growth being expected to come from outside Europe? That was the assessment of the EU.

Leaving the EU we voted for, yes. So that we wouldn't be paying dosh to the EU, or having their laws and regulations, or immigrants. Keeping any of that means we haven't left.

Can be difficult to find the latest figures and know how they are weighted, etc.

But the point is we're going down the route of making trade of all types more difficult with the EU - without having an alternative to replace that with. Just guesses as to what may or may not happen. We already know what will happen with a hard Brexit. By looking at how the EU trades with similar countries outside the EU.

To me, it's rather like leaving a reasonably well paid job without having another to go to.

You've totally missed the point. A bi-lateral deal would only be easy if both countries had no deals with others. Which every major player in the world already has.

Say NZ has a deal with Oz. Part of that trade is NZ supplying lamb to OZ. The UK wants a deal with Oz, and wants to sell UK lamb to Oz. NZ would certainly object to the competition. Now multiply that by all such goods. And you get some idea why doing any new deal takes many many years.

Many Bexiteers have the idea that (say) Oz would be so desperate to trade with the UK that they'd 'do a Brexit' on their deal with NZ. I think they live in La La land.

You do talk crap.

Why would the other country want the same deal as they get with the EU. The EU imports and exports many goods that we don't and its a bigger market so the other country would want something from us that benefits them and that will probably be something different to what it was getting from the EU.

It was benefiting from a trade deal with 29 countries not one.

but you think we are the same as the EU so the deals will be the same. Talk about living in brexshit land.

You didn't vote for any of that so get over it.

On what basis would they object?

I don't think any of them are desperate. What I do think is that those we trade with at present under FTAs that the EU has arranged will be keen not to lose that trade, and that we will build bigger trade deals outside the EU than the EU ever would have done for us.

Eff off Den. It's what I voted for.

You voted to leave the EU and thats what is happening, you won, get over it!

Maybe that's a plan. Why don't we find an island somewhere ... or a strip of land we can fence off and call it 'La la land' and dump all those who want out of the EU in it? It's only far as they don't represent the majority of people in the UK, only a tiny percentage more than those who actually voted to remain?

We are in the EU, they want out of the EU, that's what they will get, and they all seem keen to arrange their own affairs, not accept 'outsiders' and don't care that it will be a big unknown ... so it's a win win for them (and those who voted remain who can just continue with the status quo). ;-)

Hey, we could build them an Ark, and as they are Brexiteers, we could call it the 'B Ark'!

Cheers, T i m

full of computer experts ...tee hee

There'a always Jersey - it's not in the EU (nor is Guernsey)