OT:Marine Le Pen in the lead as polls open - as experts warn far-Right victory could lead to collapse of the EU

Apr 23, 2017 8 Replies
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Not a very stable Union if it cant handle democratic action in its constituent states.



The EU is consistently failing to win support from Eureopeans. Change is happening and the EU has failed to deal with any of it - which is what one expects from a massively centralised command and control economy that rules by diktat.


I've got £18 at 9:2 on her being El Pres. Betfair is still showing Macron as favourite and Le Pen's odds have worsened slightly.

I always understood that the odds were not based mainly on the probability of the outcome, but the number of peeps betting on that option.

Yes, indeed. So in effect it's a crowd-opinion-poll. Now the crowd is everyone, not just the voters...

William Hill have her at 5:2 with Macron favourite at 4:6

I do hope their choice is a little more neutral than giving that lot the full power though. Frying pan into fire comes to mind. Brian

Correct. Which is why its possible to win at professional gambling.

Although its damned hard work.

Bookies adjust the odds according to how much money has been placed If that money is massively misplaced, the odds on actual winners can be long indeed.

Marine Le Pen is more of a marxist than "far right". Not that there's much difference anyway.

Under French law no polls may be taken after last Friday and a lot of people were undecided then.

Le Pen is expected to get the most votes in the first round, but not enough to win outright. After that, all those who don't want her will get behind whoever else gets the next largest vote, which is expected to Macron, and that should give that person a clear majority in the second round.

Its not a meaningful opinion poll. The bookies just change the odds to get a spread of people betting on each outcome so that they win whatever happens.

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