Just having a ponder...

Being a once decent DIY group, if someone asked for advice about near anything related, they'd get a reasonably consistent set of answers. Plenty of debate about the dotting of 'I's, etc, but nevertheless pretty consistent. And maybe even a link to a site written by known experts.

But with this EU nonsense, all the expert opinion in terms of facts and figures is ignored, to be replaced by speculation and guesswork. Don't understand why.

If you're not by now bored with the whole thing, have a look at this which helps explain the nuts and bolts of leaving and what would be need to be negotiated afterwards. It does try to deal with that sort of thing rather than the more emotive bits. So very different from the politicians involved.

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Reply to
Dave Plowman (News)
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Because the expert opinion is just that. Opinion.

Reply to
Tim Streater

Tim Streater explained on 18/06/2016 :

And no-one has a crystal ball that can accurately predict the future so by its very nature, it's all guesswork. All we can do is act on our own feelings because no-one can tell us EXACTLY what WILL happen.

Reply to
John

It'll just be more mights, maybes and coulds, because neither side can give wills or won'ts, and yes the whole thing is very tedious by now, so my 'K' key has just seen some extra use ...

Reply to
Andy Burns

You might as well ask why some people vote for socialist Labour and others capitalist Conservatives. There's no definitive answer. In fact it's a bit like religion and you likely copy your parents !

Reply to
Andy Cap

Absolutely. But those who are and have been involved in trade negotiations (and a knowledge of how the EU works) have more of an idea of a timescale than those who haven't.

It's worth watching that video to see what I'm on about.

Reply to
Dave Plowman (News)

You could try understanding my post.

That video explains, from the horses mouth, the likely timescale of establishing new trade agreements. Unless you think the UK can get along nicely without any.

Reply to
Dave Plowman (News)

It's surely not just about trade though, is it, though I understand that's what the establishment are using to scare us because they think it's their best option.

Reply to
Andy Cap

Presumably you posted the link because you think it helps the case for Project Fear?

See? another "likely" ...

Reply to
Andy Burns

Project fear? That's the only thing both sides agree on. They're both using scare stories. Or perhaps you believe we'll get swamped by Turkish immigrants? Now that *is* the scare story to end them all.

Unlike many on here who continually post links to their favourite newspaper, this is the only one I've posted.

And it gives information that might just make some think on.

Reply to
Dave Plowman (News)

I think the referendum is trading in large part on conservatism and fear of the unknown (remain), and some odd notions of independence, migration and 'sovereignty' (exit).

That bloke has a pretty decent insight, but even so I find his comments necessarily fluffy, and his 'back to square one' closing comments are quite probably wrong. Hopefully - if he's right, we're stuffed if the vote goes exit.

I think the 'expert' part is of some importance, though :-)

Reply to
RJH

He is an expert some of whose work I have read before and whom I respect. But his yardstick is - as he admits - essentially economic. He gives no weight to the issues of (a) what the EU will become over the next N years; (b) what will this mean for the UK and (c) immigration, population, culture etc.

Compare his analysis with, for example, the comments of Donald Tusk on the EU elite ?Obsessed with the idea of instant and total integration, we failed to notice that ordinary people, the citizens of Europe, do not share our Euro-enthusiasm.? He is - albeit too late and with too little power - the only President to show that he has "got it"

You may think a vote for BREXIT perverse. I may think so too (or not: I value the secrecy of the ballot). But, despite the carrot of power/influence/wealth, it seems to me respectable to conclude "I will diminish and go into the West and remain Galadriel." And that is the issue Prof Dougan understandably does not address - and more significantly the Remain campaign appears to have run away from at their cost.

Reply to
Robin

Sorry, but no one can *know* what the EU will become in the future.

I'm interested in the culture bit. Which 'culture' to you think the EU will force on everyone? German? Would the French put up with that? French? The Spanish would be up for that. And so on.

We are certainly not unique in wanting fundamental changes to the EU, especially given the refugee situation of recent months.

So is it better we help formulate those reforms or watch them happen helplessly from the outside?

Reply to
Dave Plowman (News)

Ask three economists for their opinions and you will get three different answers.

*Anything* coming out of a 'university' (with its inevitable left-wing bias) needs to be read with a healthy dose of scepticism.
Reply to
Andrew

But some of us do know exactly what Britain was like prior to 1973.

Just fine.

We were still a major *primary* manufacturer and exporter of cars, lorries, buses, chemicals, adhesives, paints, glues and loads of other stuff.

Then we joined the common market, and the miners forced out a democratically elected government and put their socket glove labour cronies in power.

cheap meat and dairy imports from New Zealand, Oz and Argentina were stopped. Food prices trebled. Farmers became the new premier league footballers with their CAP subsidies. Inflations was 25% for 5 solid years on the trot. Milk and Oliver oil lakes grew and grew. Butter mountains as high as everest, and periodically dumped on world markets destroying non-common market agriculture.

UK Product after product was quietly cleansed and production moved to mainland europe :-

Leyland truck and buses (gone) Rootes group -> Peugeot Parts of Austin/morris -> Honda then BMW Rail manufacturing -> Poland Forklift trucks -> Germany (Linde) ICI paints -> Holland (Akzo nobel) Terrys choccy oranges -> Belgium Spam -> Holland Massey Ferguson (coventry) -> France Perkins diesels (gone) Ford cars -> all over mainland europe Sony TVs (Bridgend) -> Slovakia Hitachi TVs -> Czeck republic Twinings tea (andover) -> Poland Cadburys (Bristol) -> Poland Pilkington float glass -> Belgium

Finally the British finally saw the light and kicked Labour out but they came back in 1997 on the back of lies and said manufacturing no longer mattered, so it carried on shrinking while Gobshite sucked up to the Banks. Darling even described the banks as the 'New North Sea Oil' !!!!.

Britain has become Europes credit card. We import most of their manufactured goods and send them money in return that is borrowed from future generations, relying on ever increasing house prices to hide the fact that we are in deep doo-doo.

Reply to
Andrew

I hate to tell you this, but the rest of the world's changed quite a lot in the 43 years since then.

The world does that, y'know.

43 years before 1973 was 1930. The world changed quite a lot in that 43 years. 43 years before 1930 was 1887. The world changed quite a lot in that 43 years. 43 years before 1887 was 1844. The world changed quite a lot in that 43 years, too.

Would 1843-UK have fared well in 1887? Would 1887-UK have fared well in

1930? Would 1930-UK have fared well in 1973?

Of course they bloody wouldn't.

So why would 1973-UK fare well in 2016? It's a ridiculous thought.

Reply to
Adrian

We can be certain more developing countries will join like Turkey, with hoards of migrants taking indigenous UK jobs.

We can be certain the infrastructure and housing won't grow proportionately.

Reply to
Fredxxx

careful what you wish for

most of the other groups that I contribute to are all but dead

tim

Reply to
tim...

Pretty fair summary.

Of course its a moot point as to how much of that would have happened anyway.

Reply to
The Natural Philosopher

And will a 2016 EU fare well in 2059?

Heck its broken already. I very much doubt it will be there in 2059...

So why not leave it before it takes us down with it?

Even rats leave sinking ships.

Reply to
The Natural Philosopher

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