But equally always wrong. Which adds up to 50% right.
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Paddy calls Easyjet to book a flight. The operator asks "How many people are flying with you?" Paddy replies "I don't know! It=E2=80=99s your flipping plane!"
Because of the small time scale yuo've not meant to look at them a week in advance, they are usualy OK for that day buit for teh next day 2 or 3 hour is the best yuo can hopem for and even that depends on previous conditions.
This is were proability comes in. The storm off the south coast in 1987 had a probability of about 20%. Not sure what the probabiolity of it being teh worst storm in 300 years was, but that doesn;t mean it could never had happened.
Only as a percentage, you shouldn't just rely on a percentage.
Which makes 100% a useless figure because it will never occur.
No yuo wouldn;t not without some description such as light showers or heavy downpours, theres a differnce yuo seem to be sujeustimng that rainfall ios a at a constant speed it isn't
Even if it caused flooding ? You can;lt use percentages for such predictions.
rote:
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e people have told you. Try it for yourself. The alleged timing is, fall into ice water and die of cold in 15 minutes. Do what I do, go swimming in winter in a partially frozen lake, and do so for a lot more than 15 minute s. Jesus Christ your teeth don't even start chattering until about 30 minu tes.
That is NOT proof.
for 1 hour 10 minutes at a time.
Might be long enough although why not stay longer try some Tummo
Do you think you could sit on block of ice for nearly two hours.
t functioning, is it another way you talk crap ?
Why bother.
I was looking at the current day. If they can't work that out they need to stop bothering.
If a forecaster uses probabilities, he's guessing. Wait until we can actually predict it properly, then make forecasts.
That's all some sites give.
I just told you I can think of many days where it did just that.
But I'd know that I only had to cover my car boot stall for 2.4 hours.
1% of the day won't cause flooding.Ok, why not say "today will have between 3 and 5mm of rain".
Of course it is. If I postulate that mixing red ink and blue ink makes white ink, then you mix them and don't get white, you've proved I was wrong.
That won't help my camera run for longer.
Easily. It only cools a part of your body.
There's no bother, it's automatic.
That's what forcasting is just working out probabilities of what is most likely to happen.
The famous storm of 1987 in the UK had a probability of 20% that hurricane force winds would hit the south coast.
That will never happen as it's all down to proabilities.
Then use a better site.
But what does that 100% represent depends on the tim e you loko at it. If you look at 100% at midday does that mean it will rain for 100% of time from the previous 12 hours and 12 hours in the future ?
But you might not know when the 2.4 hours will start or finish. If you start at 7am when will you cover your car boot.
At 7am at 9am at 11am at 1pm at 3pm.....
What happens if it starts raining at 10am and stops at 10:10 it could start again at 11:10 for another 10 mins.
Because it doesn't mean much to most people.
And until that probability is near 0% and 100%, there's no point.
So they were shit at predicting it.
Bullshit.
Can't be bothered, they're all wrong half the time anyway. A local barometer is the only thing that works, and that just gives you a guide of if it will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 hours.
Whatever it says the time period is that they're forecasting.
Doesn't matter, it's quick enough to cover it when I see the rain starting. But what I would have known was how many hours I would be able to operate the stall that day, and if it was worth going there.
Anybody who doesn't know what a mm is is a moron.
rote:
t likely to happen.
Yes there is just like betting. If there was a 50% chance of you winning the lottery by placing a £1 b et then would you place the bet ? But remmeber yuor stats dumfuck it's 50% isn't it. You either win or you don't just two outcomes.
ane force winds would hit the south coast.
No there was a 20% chance of it happening that is 1 in 5 \plenty of peole place bets on horses with far less likely to win but they still do it. There's the national lottery something like 14 million to 1 on winning.
most likely to happen.
bet then would you place the bet ?
No point in betting on something if there's a 50% chance of winning =A31= and a 50% chance of losing =A31. Which is what you get with weather.
rricane force winds would hit the south coast.
they still do it.
If someone tells you there's a 20% chance of something happening, you wi= ll assume it probably won't happen. Yet it did.
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If it's zero degrees outside today and it's supposed to be twice as cold= tomorrow, how cold is it going to be?
rote:
most likely to happen.
?1 bet then would you place the bet ?
?1 and a 50% chance of losing £1. Which is what you get with weathe r. Thats why just a % figure is pretty useless on it's own.
ricane force winds would hit the south coast.
hey still do it.
l assume it probably won't happen. Yet it did.
I wouldn't assume that with a 20% chance. Only someone that didn't underst and what they were reading might do though.
is most likely to happen.
=A31 bet then would you place the bet ?
=A31 and a 50% chance of losing =C2=A31. Which is what you get with wea= ther.
Tell that to the shitty weather websites.
hurricane force winds would hit the south coast.
ut they still do it.
will assume it probably won't happen. Yet it did.
derstand what they were reading might do though.
If I said there was a 20% chance of you winning the lottery, would you g= o out and celebrate?
-- =
Paddy calls Easyjet to book a flight. The operator asks "How many people are flying with you?" Paddy replies "I don't know! It=E2=80=99s your flipping plane!"
rote:
is most likely to happen.
£1 bet then would you place the bet ? £1 and a 50% chance of losing £1. Which is what you get with wea ther.Having problmes understanding it are you.
Today it says there;s a 30% chance of a few showers, that;s not the same as 30% change of a tornado. Humidity 81% does that mean thre;sa a 81% chance of humidity ? So there's 19% chance of no humitidy is that it ?
hurricane force winds would hit the south coast.
t they still do it.
will assume it probably won't happen. Yet it did.
erstand what they were reading might do though.
out and celebrate?
No but I'd go out and buy a ticket and would thibnk it is more likely that; s I'd win than having the standard chance of 1 in 14 million or so.
Having problmes understanding it are you.
Today it says there;s a 30% chance of a few showers, that;s not the same as
30% change of a tornado. Humidity 81% does that mean thre;sa a 81% chance of humidity ? So there's 19% chance of no humitidy is that it ?No but I'd go out and buy a ticket and would thibnk it is more likely that;s I'd win than having the standard chance of 1 in 14 million or so.
--------------------------------------------- Percentage of what? I would imagine that 20% of viewers would get rain and
80% wouldn't.
Where percentage is a probability. It's NOT 20% of viewers. It's a 1 in 5 chance that it will rain. In the web site above it said showers so a 20% chance of showers. I do realise that for the dumb it;s really difficult those accessing the p age fropm pluto and will see the 20% chance and ask if teh rain will be wat er or methane or nitrogen, ut thatf is theiur problem they will never unde rstand the weather on earth either.
In the case of showers I think it is more like a 100% chance of showers occurring in the broad geographical area under consideration, with a 20% chance of any given location being affected by them. With weather fronts I suspect if it is a different type of calculation, relating to their probable speed, direction and wetness.
No, it was all explained a few months ago in a documantray on weather.
all boiled down to a percentage by some forcasters and sites.
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