OT. African swine fever (2025 Update)

May 18, 2019 Last reply: 8 months ago 1 Replies

The guys on the This Week in Agribusiness show mentioned this so I had to look it up.

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It's untreatable and the survival rate is near zero. No vaccine. Some predictions say China will produce 150 to 200 million fewer hogs this year. China slaughtered 700 million in 2018. The Chinese need for grain is going to take a big hit no matter what the trade policies are. It would be a bad time to go into farming if anyone wants to do the Green Acres thing in real life. Farmers are like royalty. You're either born into it or marry into it.


Well, the good news is that China will need more pork. Of course with Trump's trade war, whether that comes from here seems doubtful. From what I gather, this season is critical for US farmers that rely on China. They barely weathered the beginning of Trump's trade war and had a horrible year, despite Trump handing out $12 bil in welfare. I thought it was only $8 bil, but just saw updated numbers. And now he's about to give them another $15 bil. But farmers say it's at most been enough to keep them from total ruin and if this year goes the same way, it will be a major disaster. I saw one quoted as saying what I said early on, that once you lose business, it's hard to get it back. So even if Trump reaches a deal, which is nowhere in sight, I suspect farmers are still in for a rough time, I doubt it will instantly bounce back to levels before the trade wars. I hope those that voted for him are happy. I couldn't understand why farmers would be supporting a guy that was itching for a trade war. Farmers were already doing very well, shipping a lot of product to China, they were our largest buyer of soybeans, for example. I guess if they have the swine flu, they won't need those soybeans for sometime to come.

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