Even the most conservative speculations are not looking to even the recent past as an accurate gauge of where our energy prices could be headed in the next 20 years. We are by no means on a level grade though it is of course all speculation. The auto exec's surley based their business on an unmitigated analysis focused squarely on the past with no eye to the future and look where it has gotten their businesses. I have no idea if you are one that feels there is a never ending supply of oil and NG and we are all being snowed with regards to the energy and environmental issues we face in the future. If that is the case than the conversation is pointless as we can all rest our bones and just boost the thermostat.
With regards to system sizing/pricing I merely referenced a 1.5-2kw system which of course is not going to cut it for a large or all electric or wasteful/non-conserving home. Nor one in poor location for PV. This is a system that would cost 9-11k or less without storage. With federal and state rebates could be as low as I mentioned. This is a system respective of the 75.00 a month electric bill in most locations. However, if ones bill is more than 75, its more, system is bigger, savings are bigger. The common averages state that one can expect a 8-12 percent return on investment over 20 years depending on system cost and location (rebates). Most portfolios are lucky to hit that in decent times and arent further bolstered by tens of thousands of tons of reduced carbon footprint. At some point we have to stop merely looking at our wallet. Though it will always be the overwhelming factor at some point we are going to have to factor other things in that we may not be instantly compensated for or that we merely break even financially over the 20 years.
Given this is for CA but a simple calculator found in many forms on the net -
With regards to system maintenance yes, of course there will be maintenance as well as risk. It isnt any different than any other investment you make. Just like hail can trash your car or home, a lightning strike, power surge, falling tree, could damage your system. Just like your vehicle oil changes, tires, and home require maintenance so will it though without batteries it would require virtually none. If there is storage involved replacing battery banks every 5-7 years will be factored in. However most grid tied homes opt to forgo storage and trade those $$ for more panels as the grid is a far more effective storage module than batteries. This would additionally boost output. This is something that always gives me a chuckle. When someone wants a cedar sided house, tiled roof, or an Escolade they dont "run the numbers". They just want it. The cost of owning it is offset by emotion. Yet when something like this is actually practical and in many cases even profitable it is held to unrealistic standards of scrutiny by some.
The simple fact of the matter, is most all calculators out there call out 8-12 percent return on investment with many factors included. Given some of this is based on state and fed rebates and it varies from state to state. Savings is savings. From my perspective if you can come within +/- 2 points of the average interest rate of the same period for investing your money its a no brainer simply due to doing more with less and supporting new and innovative industries.
Sadly, most of the blanket nay sayers with regards to AE in general come from a very biased viewpoint to begin with and will only be swayed if they get paid. Break even wont even move them. Its the Me Millennium, Welcome to the future.
Mark