From Dr. Marvin J. Cetron, President, Forecasting International
Dear Dr. Aerden,
We write to ask for your help in an important and challenging research effort.
Forecasting International, one of the world's oldest and most respected forecasting organizations, is undertaking a study of new technologies that may improve the prevention and treatment of periodontal disease by toothpaste and other oral healthcare products. We have recruited some of the world's leading researchers and clinical experts to participate in this research, and we believe that you would be a very appropriate addition to this knowledgeable panel. In return for your help, we offer access to what we believe will be very useful information.
We have decided to approach this subject with a modified Delphi study. The first questionnaire asks panelists to evaluate possible developments in periodontal therapy; it is attached. The second will be amended to include issues uncovered in the first round of polling and will be accompanied by a summary of results from stage one. Panelists will then be asked to reconsider their answers in light of the views of their peers.
Over some 40 years of research in a wide variety of subject areas, we have found that the most useful information uncovered in these studies often comes in the response to the first questionnaire. It is here that participants give their most detailed views, point out important but little-known developments, and sometimes speculate about research of potential significance. These valuable insights will be available to all who participate in the first stage of this research.
We ask you to evaluate the possible developments and concerns suggested in the attached questionnaire, answer the questions, and provide any comments that may occur to you. We would appreciate it as well if you can suggest other issues or technological opportunities that we may have overlooked. We believe this effort should take no more than 30 to 45 minutes.
Unfortunately, we must send out the second-stage questionnaire in just two weeks. Accordingly, although we will be eager to see your response at any time, it would be extremely helpful if you can complete the attached questionnaire in two, or at most three, days and return your results by e-mail. Replies can be sent to me at snipped-for-privacy@tili.com.
We are grateful for your help with this research, because we have found that the best results are obtained when the study group is as large and knowledgeable as possible. We look forward to your reply, and to sharing with you the responses of other leading authorities in your field.
If you have questions about this study, we will be happy to try to answer them. Please call me at 703-379-9033 or contact my associate Owen Davies at
772-340-7564 or by replying to this e-mail.Thank you in advance for your time and effort.
Yours truly,
Marv Cetron Forecasting International
3612 Boat Dock Drive Falls Church, VA 22014