Weather forecasts - or not?

The same people that predict weather are the same ones that change their minds every couple of years about climate change :)

I too have noticed that if you take 3 weather predictions from various sources that often they contradict each other. More often check at 6am and the forecast has changed by 8am - its almost as if someone is opening a window, looking out, posting the result and then pretending that it is a forecast for the day ahead.

I have long suspected the Met Office has chosen to provide the forecast that best supports the changes in climate that (they believe) we will be seeing.

I can remember when they gaslit us over saying "We never said it would be a barbecue summer" back in 200x when they damn well did.

Just watch Louise Lear or Elizabeth Rizzini give the forecast, you won't care about the weather then :-)

If you actually go and listen or watch (on you tube) the Met office long discussions, rather than the 3 minute summaries on the MSM or the intensely politicised 'climate' predictions you will find the truth 'that we know of' given clearly including uncertainties.

e.g. the chances of SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) which *increase chances* of cold and snow in the UK are higher than average.

Ergo we *might* see some SSW and if we did we *might* see a 'beast from the east' type period.

MSM weather an climate is predicated on the assumption that you are an ignorant numpty. The met office itself talks using, and to, intelligent people who can understand what they are saying.

Today is my favourite meteorologist. Annie Shuttleworth.

You expect a Reform government to stand up to Putin ?

Predicting precipitation is particularly difficult. A degree in difference of air temperature can cause a huge variation in rainfall.

I recall one morning, it was still dark, listening to the radio during breakfast and hearing about the problems with the snow. Snow? Nobody said anything about snow the day before, but opening a curtain did indeed show a few inches on the ground.

Some years back One of the BBC weather forecasters/presenters admitted that if they just came on and said tomorrows weather would the same as today's weather they stood more than a 50% chance they would be correct.

T may depend on how much Putin pisses off Trump. Reform seem to be taking the same stance as the current Republican party in the USA on many of their proposed policies.

A totally meaningless investigation evidently. Of course todays weather will be similar to yesterdays: a true statement which gives you very little accuracy, because todays weather will never be accurately the same as yesterdays. It's as meaningless as saying the temperature right now will be the same as the temperature ten minutes ago. Totally true in practical terms, within the paramaters of a few decimal points of degC but utterly misleading if taken to mean that we don't know loads about how temperatures change and when and we aren't expert at predicting changes.

TW

I don't think people on this group are suggesting some form of conspiracy but just highlighting that 24hour weather forecasting isn't very good. With easy access to different sources of UK weather forecasts people are finding out that no two are the same and can deviate from each other by a wide margin.

When attending a sport event that could be cancelled by rain I always look at satellite data for the previous 24 hours and then extrapolate for the day of the meeting, as well as looking at a few weather forecasts. Although more expensive I leave ticket buying (on a ticket only policy at the gate) to close to the event. This can save my pocket £100+ if I decide not to go on the likelihood of a rained off event.

I think any population that rejected the EU en masse is likely to back Ukraine to the hilt.

Even in the Trumpian USA 60% support Ukraine.

Only the ones that by random miracles actually make sense.

With ex pilot as father, meteorology was in my bones and geography lessons increased my understanding

'forecast for Britain' is nonsense. A town 20 miles away can be having a thunderstorm whilst it's bright sunshine here.

Weather is geographically very localised. One learns to DYOR if its that important

D-Day was an unexpected break in storms before and after. They didn't know till a few hours before.

As it was, it was marginal. The next favourable moon and tide period was impossibly stormy but they didn't know that till later.

Bullshit

Today there is a weak front lying across the UK NE to SW. Her in east anglia it wont get here and will dissipate, That means bright sunshine this afternoon and low wind speed from the SW so more mild temps

Tomorrow a bigger Atlantic depression will sweep in and will come across Anglia, so it will be slightly warmer, windier and with a fair chance of rain as the front goes across.,

All that is in the data...

well meteorology is a very specialised branch of physics really. There are no easily soluble linear differental equations, It's a chaotic mess of non linear partials ...Which is why staring at weather maps and seeing the patterns - something human brains are good at - is often better than running computer simulations based on incomplete data and simplified assumptions that are seldom anywhere near correct.

Annoyingly for licence payers there is now more self advertising on the BBC than the commercial channels!

Well that guarantees a non Reform government then. Unless they dump Farage ("Mr. Moscow") and come out telling Putin to f*ck of to the far side of f*ck and then f*ck off some more.

To coin a phrase from Mumsnet.

I think the problem is that people want to know Will it rain? Will I need sun cream? Will it be too windy to sail my dinghy? Will the roads be clear of snow ice and floodwater?

Unfortunately whatt will happen weather wise, is at another level entirely, The above are *emergent properties* of the weather systems. A typical weather pattern will be a ridge of high pressure followed by a warm front, (overcast, light rain, warmer air, moderate wind speeds) followed by and occluded artea )(overcast, little or no train, moderate wind and temps) followed by a cold front (very high possible rain levels, wind colder and shifting to the North West, broken cloud, heavy showers and sun).

Right now we are looking at a depressions stuck West of Ireland bring and occluded front sweeping across the southern parts of the UK. Warm and windier, but who knows how much water is in it?

Some. Showers are likely. But nor catastrophic. And it looks like that is the pattern for several days. Warm windy, some rain, some sun.,

Well yes,

And I stand by that.

The BBC has 'progressivised' itself into oblivion.

It's so far ahead its completely lost the plot.

I look at it and think 'who are these people? what planet do they think they are on? Who do thy think they are talking to?'

The world has gone in a different direction but they haven't noticed