Weather forecasts - or not?

I really don't believe that last is true, there are fewer actual weather stations than there were decades ago.

And that truth frequently seems to be that the Met Office model differs from the European models, and the latter seem to be more accurate (quite regularly)

Even in June 1944 they had enough raw data from balloons, planes and pressure guages to know when a significant change was to be expected within hours. They just didn't know if it would be 10 hours or 20 hours ahead.

A recent MET office youtube video stated that they no longer use their (v expensive) super computer, but rely on Microsofts global network equivalent.

Have you *ever* seen a gas light ??. WTF *does* this meaningless word actually mean, and why are people using it ?.

Sigh. Just watch where the Jet Stream is, and is likely to be and its *speed*.

If it loops to the south of the uk (like right now) then expect the UK to be hit by a series of low pressures which mean wind and rain.

drunks or pre-senility ?

Well right now I have overcast, light rain. Absolutely consistent with the fax chart showing a weak occluded front bang overhead. Overhead East Anglia, that is.

Elsewhere in the country it might well be fine.

In fact rain radar and satellite shows the overcast/rain is in a band stretching from Cumbria to Kent, with almost no cloud or rain outside that band.

Its not rocket science, but you cant spoon-feed s simple forecast to numpties and expect to get it right for everyone

Its not just crap in crap out, its simplistic modelling versus real world complexity.

For example climate models do not really incorporate cloudiness, or convection accurately. They just bang in fudge factors. Assuming these are more or less constant.

But they are not. 40% of *surface* temperature cooling is via convection, and anything that affects that makes a huge difference, And the more convection the less CO2 matters because the heat is carried up high into the stratosphere beyond most of the CO2, which only affects direct radiation from the surface. As do clouds. Another vitally important factor the models simply gloss over.

Oh totally,

There are several Global Circulation Models. For longer range. One of them is UK based, then there are American and European models

It was a massive gamble,. They also had plenty of ships out in the Atlantic ...so they could see tomorrows weather today, as it were.

It refers to the films and plays called 'Gaslight' circa 1942 onwards

An evil protagonist convinces the heroine that she is going mad and that things she experiences simply are not real.

Yes, I always include that

Exactly

There's a pub in town where part of it is still gaslit.

I think there is a gas lamp in London still working off gas from the sewer underneath it

I haven't been for a year or two but when the converted a nearby barn into a pub around 40 years ago they installed and continued to used gas lighting in the main seating area.

Wigmore Hall, in London, has some gas lights. For some reason or other, the job of igniting them always seems to fall to the shortest staff member.

Adrian

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Well that sums up Politicians and many IFA's