Squeaky bum time at Nat Grid

Nov 12, 2015 7 Replies
M

"Anyone of a nervous disposition should mark 11 January in their calendar as the moment to have torches, candles or paraffin lamps at the ready.



That is the day when, according to National Grid?s forecast, the gap between Britain?s energy needs and its power supply will be at its wafer-thinnest"



"This year, National Grid?s crucial reserve margin - its capacity to produce more energy during peak demand - is 5.1%, meaning 57 megawatts will be available.



The margin increased from a palpitation-inducing 1.2% only after it spent £36.5m in the summer - equating to 50p on the average energy bill"


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S

I thought that one reason for shutting down steel production in this country was to release electricity generation capacity to avert blackouts this winter. (possibly I'm being cynical, but I don't have any figures to hand)

Steve

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D

I'm not following this bit. 57 MW is a nats fart as far as a 54,200 MW demand is concerned. I've watched an ammeter in a grid switching center near Cardiff gently waving about by 10 A or so, probably a 275 kV line so 2.7 MW and that's just the variation in demand over a few tens of seconds of one medium city...

5.1% of 54.2 GW is 2.7 GW. if 5.1% is 57 MW 100% is 1.1 GW.

Is the truth they want 1 GW (ish) above demand as margin and they are forecasting only 5.1% of that 1 GW being available?

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M

En el artículo , Dave Liquorice escribió:

57MW did strike me as being rather low. I would have thought, for example, at 5pm now it's dark and the lights will be coming on, people will be going home and putting the heating and evening meal on, that a 57MW margin would be far too little.

Maybe it's Grauniad journalism at its finest again.

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J

That thought *did* cross my mind.

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T

That's more likely I think. If a station trips out or an unexpected demand increase appears, they'd be stuffed with 57MW of reserve.

Even 1GW of reserve is wobbly pants time if (as happened in 2008) something the size of Sizewell B trips out.

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B

Yes we are sailing close to the wind. I suspect some will come in from France though, assuming we are not at war with them by then. Brian

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T

That's already included, and of course when the wind isn't blowing here, the wind is generally not blowing on la continent.

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