Re: The Spanish Flu ended without vaccines!!

We might never know for sure as we should calcualte how many peolpe have died that could have have lived if they'd had a hospital bed or at least treatment for thier alment that wasn;t treated due to covid or the lockdown or any other issue that the covid epidemic created.

We have a pretty good idea. Main vaccine side effects typically show up on timescales of a week to at most a few months. That time has passed.

That is incorrect. There have been instances of bad vaccines although such effects are normally very rare they are very serious. You can also get the same very nasty G-B syndrome from catching the disease itself.

Some people were seriously damaged by a swine flu vaccine back in 1976 although most recovered pretty well after about a year.

One of the reasons why the Americans and French are quite so vaccine hesitant is that their governments used a somewhat dodgy swine flu vaccine in 1976 that triggered Guillain-Barre syndrome in some recipients and at a level that was completely unacceptable (~10ppm).

GBS is still a ~1ppm risk in the modern flu vaccine.

And GBS is also a naturally occurring phenomenon, with its own background rate. So when you say 1ppm, that is "we detected 1ppm more than the normal background rate".

"IR of GBS increases with age. As vaccinations are often targeted at specific age groups, age-specific rates should be used to monitor GBS observed versus expected rates after introduction of large-scale vaccination programmes."

"In a population of 638,891 persons, we identified 23 validated incident GBS cases

IR was 1.14 per 100,000 person years

under 50 years (0.76; 95%CI 0.41-1.32)

over 50 years (1.80; 95%CI 0.98-3.05) "

And I was surprised to find the topic while searching for something the other day. It seems when vaccines have issues, some topics generate more clicks than others, and the info on GBS and COVID, has remained mostly hidden away. It was an item on the list of things a prospective vaccine must not do. But even though the vaccine designers are aware of things that trigger it, I think there is still an observable rate of GBS from this round.

OK, let's find one.

Janssen 8.1 Moderna 1.21 Pfizer-BioNTech 1.05 "

So there are some incidents to report. One of the slides in the deck mentions that some recipients had medical conditions sometime before the GBS.

"6 reports mentioned a recent illness: generalized rash, upper respiratory infection, or flu-like symptoms 1-2 weeks before GBS"

The type of vaccine may play a part in the general rate of GBS. That's if you needed to extrapolate to whatever they gave you :-)

Paul

Yeah, at our age it is a good bet. I think the original stats were 99% of deaths were over 50. My point was the risk balance as you get younger and that there is a much smaller imperative to vaccinate the very young.

FWIW, the risk that concerns me is not short term blood clots, that is confidently known to be very rare.

The very young may well not die from it, but they can be carriers and so infect the rest of their family, some of whom might be more vulnerable than others.