Re: New year

Not in the medium to long term.

Well I suppose if you don't believe in democracy, and are content to be told what to do by the state (which, to a much larger degree than us, continentals are), then you'll be OK even with *this* EU.

OK here are some sums for you.

select avg(wind) as wind, avg(solar) as solar from day where timestamp like '2018%';

These are average renewable generation (excluding biomass and hydro) figures for 2018 in MW

The average subsidy on wind FITs and or ROCS or CfD is around £60/MWh The average subsidy on solar is around £120/MWh .

So every hour us electricity consumers are popping a pointless 4500*60

• 1244*120 = £419,280 from our pockets into some crony capitalist like Harry who has erected a windmill or some solar panels.

Money that is totally wasted. It creates nothing productive and adds no wealth, it just moves it from electricity consumers' pockets to crony capitalists' and their employees' pockets.

Whilst we remain part of the EU we cannot get around the renewable obligation that dictates that we spend huge sums not on reducing emissions, but deploying a lucrative and profitable form of energy generation that does almost nothing to affect emnissions at all.

And that is before the cost of balancing all that is taken into account. Chuck another £1bn odd for cost of gas in backup mode and a bit more for extra transmission lines.

Perhaps you think this is a price worth paying to reduce the global temperture *at most* by less than you would experience standing on a brick.

Whilst we remain in the EU we do not have the choice.

I have quoted that one because I am familiar with it.

One can make similar arguments for farm subsidiesm which are about £3bn per annum. We do not have the power to change them.

So thats 6bn a year already we cab potentially save. Of course whikle a lot of the farming subsidy goes on environmental s*it and not on food, a lot does which means that the lower income consumer is somewhat subsidised and food is of all things productive.

But the fact remains a lot is not.

One can ask hard questoins about how much butterfly sanctuaries and wildflower meadows are actually worth.

At the moment it is once again all determined in Brussels.

Now IF you think that Brussels policy is as good as it gets and there is no crony capitalism going on, well then you probably voted remain.

I personally think that in every area where I have actually done research I have found deep endemic corruption by an unsackable executive.

I prefer not to support them.

It is extremely damaging for our economy to remain and none of the arguments for staying stand up to close examination.

You cannot POSSIBLY know that.

To state it marks you as someone who has taken it as an article of faith. Dogma.

Ergo you are simply brainwashed by the cult of EU, and not a rational thinking being

From: The Natural Philosopher snipped-for-privacy@invalid.invalid Subject: Re: New year Date: Tue, 01 Jan 2019 16:55 Newsgroups: uk.d-i-y

The game is to get us to stay. To re-enter having left when the sky hasn't fallen and the economy is booming will simply not happen.

Thanks for confirming you think your crystal ball rather better than any other.

You cannot POSSIBLY know that...

well no it isn't because the Euroean execuitive which is the setter of policy - not the amender of legislation - is comprised of...

...political appointees, without the moderating effects of clergy and those few who still retain an hereditary right to sit there.

I cannot work out why you would deliberatly lie about this.

Perhaps you could give a list of those in a position of power etc who are certain crashing out of the EU won't have a detrimental effect on the economy for the foreseeable future?

I realise you don't like expert opinion. Except from when you claim to be that expert, obviously.

This is a mere assertion on your part.

We've seen the efficacy of these financial forecasts over the years. Still, stick with them if they make you happy.

Oh dear. Argument by consensus of a fully paid up academic public sector workers in the one 'science' that is more often wrong than righht

Of course you havent looked in the rihght places ..

I agree, and is why I favour the Canada+ model.

On then other hand, the Norway situation, as recomended by many, does involve free movement of people.

Anyone would think it was completely beyind te intellectual ability of the current UK or the EU politicians to come up with a deal that was accesptable.

And they would be right.

No deal, deal with any urgent issues, then walk away from the EU, have an election and vote in someone who can actually govern.

If the EU want money let them ask nicely.

because they know that they would never get the same deal to go back in as we have before we left

and the chances of them winning a referendum to go back in on worst terms, with more requirements to join Euro/Schengen/Etc, than now would be minimal IMHO.

tim

All of these people who think that way have skin in the game (especially those in academia)

It is impossible to separate out their wanting to remain in for their own personal wellbeing as their opinion of what might, or might not, be good for the general population

OTOH, there are plenty of people on the leave side who DO understand that it will make them personally worse off, but are prepared to accept that for the general, as they see it, good.

Obviously you can name some who think that leaving does help them personally, but that doesn't disprove my point

tim

because they are all using data from the same flawed basic model

the one that doesn't model in the positive benefits of changes in structure from leaving the EU, because it's impossible to add those to the model because, as no-one has left the EU before, no-one know what those positive changes would be.

And in many cases they are using selective quoting to overstate their case, because they are mined to want that result anyway

tim

Problem is that there isn?t anyone like that involved in the political system.

Which equals unimpeded movement of terrorists. No such deal is acceptable.

And let them be told GFY.