Well that is five £25 wins in five months since I started...is this normal ?
- posted
2 years ago
Premium Bonds
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- posted
2 years ago
Yes, it is.
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- posted
2 years ago
For what size of holding?
Maybe I should transfer some money...
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- posted
2 years ago
Depends how big your holding is, I'd say, and how recently it was purchased. Recent purchases win more often than older ones because there are more of them, so a large holding purchased in the last 12 months will produce more winners than a similarly large holding purchased, say, five or ten years ago. I've invested £3,000 over the last 18 months and haven't won anything.
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- posted
2 years ago
agreed
agreed
nonsense
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- posted
2 years ago
agreed
and how recently it was
Nope
Recent purchases win more often than older ones because
Complete garbage. Each bond has exactly the same probability of winning regardless of when it was purchased.
agreed
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- posted
2 years ago
That is about what you should statistically expect for a holding of about £35,000.
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- posted
2 years ago
Expect just about 0.9% on a full holding, reducing as the holding falls from the £50k maximum.
So if your holding is about £35k, your £25 per month is typical luck.
PA
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- posted
2 years ago
Not unusual. After 2 years you may find that the interval between wins starts to extend.
10 Year gilts are now yielding 0.8% so if you end up winning 0.8% of your bonds value after a year you have had an average result.- Vote on answer
- posted
2 years ago
A £2 bond that I bought in December 1965 won me £25 in 2014. According to the RPI tables I would have needed to win £37 just to get my spending power back though.
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- posted
2 years ago
Oh right so I'm not just lucky then?...
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- posted
2 years ago
15k
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- posted
2 years ago
what does that mean?
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- posted
2 years ago
I'm ahead then
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- posted
2 years ago
I suspect the logic is that it has the same chance of winning as any other bond. However as the total number of bonds issued increases, the chances of any bond winning gets smaller. e.g. if you bought 10K bonds when there were 10M issued, you would be more likely to win than if you bought 10K when there were 100M issued.
(I presume they adjust the payout from time to time to accommodate that and the fluctuating returns they get investing the money)
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- posted
2 years ago
The monthly prize fund is currently calculated at one twelfth of 1% of all the bonds currently issued, ie the annual return is 1% on average.
Currently, the chance of a £25 prize is 1 in 34,500. That is for one bond.
Jim has 15,000 bonds, so he has been rather lucky to have won several months in a row. With that holding, his chance of winning £25 in any month is 35.3%.
Jim claims to have won 5 months in a row this year, IIRC, which has a probability of 0.5%, ie 1 in 200.
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- posted
2 years ago
I think not...
...because your presumption is not correct.
Newly purchased bonds do not enter the draw until they have been held for a month. This allows the total amount of prizes when they enter the draw to be recalculated /every/ month to take account of the newly purchased bonds (and any bonds cashed in, and the then current interest rate on the fund). So eg if an extra 100,000 people each bought £50,000 bonds in November then by the time of December draw their £5 billion would add an extra £50 million in prizes available. So the odds of any bonds winning - new or old - would accordingly be maintained[1]
This is not just any lottery. This is a government lottery set up when the civil service[2] still knew how to define and execute a fair process :)
[1] maintained but not /exactly/ the same as before: calculating the odds is well beyond my ability given, among other things, the effect of the fixed number of £1 million prizes. But the way that is fixed means a net growth in the total number of bonds actually /increases/ the likelihood of anyone individual bond winning something. (I think. It's a very long time since I heard all this from NS&I folk. And wines have been taken.) [2] to be fair, I am confident some still could - e.g. ONS. I'm less sure about some other depts.- Vote on answer
- posted
2 years ago
what do you mean claims?????
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- posted
2 years ago
Why? Remember you have to get more now, as you are mot allowed, as you were when I was younger to buy fewer at a time. Brian
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- posted
2 years ago
He's being a bit cheeky I think.
Bill