About 10 days ago or so in a thread on windmills that got waylaid into
wind generation, I posted data from the Gray County (KS) wind farm
noting a cyclic nature in total output with peaks in early spring and
lulls in mid-summer. I hypothesized this was owing to the cyclic nature
of the winds.
I have since finished correlating the NWS daily mean wind speeds over
the same years as I have operation data (Gray County went online in
April, 2002) and the results are so startling even to me I simply must
present a quick summary.
R^2 is the linear correlation coefficient, a measure of how well a
higher monthly output coincides w/ the higher average wind speed over
the 12 months of the year. The _LOWEST_
is almost 80% while there are
six of the eight years with a correlation of over 90%.
Clearly, when there's more wind, they generate more.
Interestingly, even here on the High Plains, the hotbed of wind, the
average annual wind speeds are only 12.5 mph w/ the highest/lowest
monthly average over the above eight years of 16.1/9.1 mph,
respectively. Since the minimum speed required for generation is 9 mph,
there's not a lot of distance above that when looking at averages rather
I'll continue to look into this some more; things like the percentage of
time of MPH>X (cumulative distribution) and the like will also be
interesting pieces to look at.
:) (conventional generation ain't gonna' go away real soon now...)