Canadian property bubble, followed by general collapse due to dependency on exports to the USA. After that Australia. Saw it on Russia Today so it must be right. Kieser report. He's been pretty accurate so far. ?
House and condo prices have declined during the past 6 months to a year, or have showed zero growth during that time frame.
The differences betweed US and Canadian residential real-estate markets are:
1) No ARM's, no no-money-down mortgages here in Canada. 2) Anything less than 25% down requires mortgage insurance. 3) Very little speculation done by the average home owner (ie - very few second homes being purchased out of pure speculation) 4) We don't have the equivalent to Nevada, Florida, or other locations where second homes used as vacation homes can be built 5) We can't deduct mortgage payments from income tax, which limits speculative home buying and bubble-forming price increases. 6) Our banks did not re-package mortgages into fancy derivative- based products, and because of that our banks did not and do not cut corners when qualifying potential mortgage borowers.You can't look at the headlines about Vancouver or Toronto's high house prices and extraplolate them to the rest of Canada.
We've had the loss of the Auto Pact, followed by 3 consecutive years of the Canadian dollar being over-valued by 15% because it's been pegged at
95 - 99% of a US dollar. Still lots of oil, natural gas and electricity being shipped to the US from Canada, but our economy is slowing becoming less export-driven and more domestically driven.Don't count on it. Look for more pain from a handful of Euro-zone countries way before Canada or Australia.
Mexico will continue to deteriorate, their self-destruction fed by US-made guns flooding south across their border.
Conditions in the US will also get worse - "security" budgets will continue to spiral out of control as the US wages it's "War on Terror" (tm) against it's own citizens. The "War on Terror" is a lot like fighting cancer with chemo-therapy: It doesn't seem to matter how many good people you harm (financially, psycologically, morally) in order to detect, apprehend or (rarely) kill a handful of bad people. The end result will be to create a culture of control. What you see now is just the beginning.
It's really sad to sit here in Canada and watch you Americans consume yourselves over this terrorism pretense as you allow your gov't to destroy the very ideas of personal freedom and liberty your country was founded on. We watch your local TV news, your national 6:30 pm network news (which reported last night that your restaurants and grocery stores are now on the lookout for food poisoning performed by home-grown terrorists). If I believed in a god, I would be thanking him that I'm a Canadian living in Canada.
Home Guy wrote in news: snipped-for-privacy@Guy.com:
There are more differences:
7) Canadian homebuyers cannot refinance an existing mortgage at a new, lower rate, without paying a penalty to do so. That penalty is formulated to make it financially unfeasible to break the original contract. 8) Canadian homebuyers cannot escape their legal obligation to fulfill the terms of the contract (i.e.: pay it off) by simply handing in the keys and walking away from the home. 9) Unlike the US, Canada does not use legislative and policy measures to force banks to tease people into real-estate debt.The US housing bubble was created by the shiploads of artificial credit conjured up by the Fed. Canada also creates artificial credit, but not to the same extent, and without accompanying legislative idiocies like the Community Reinvestment Act.
Mexico will continue to deteriorate due to it's epidemic level corruption. US made guns have nothing to do with it, the cartels causing trouble there have plenty of other sources of guns, and indeed the media tries to play up US guns being smuggled into Mexico when the reality is they represent a small percentage of the cartel's guns.
Again, the media you are watching presents a very distorted picture. The majority of people in the US are not in any way worrying about terrorism, they are going about their lives perfectly normally. I certainly have not been concerned with terrorism personally at all and it has no impact on my daily life. I am normally "aware" of my surroundings, but that is common sense, not anything related to terrorism. I wasn't even concerned about terrorism when I spend a couple weeks in Egypt back in 2008, though I was amused by the government (Egypt) provided security escort with the MP5.
You know that De Nile is not just a river in Egypt, right?
Yes. ABC, NBC, and CBS does present a distorted picture. It's a picture seen through a rose-colored lens, because they are loath to put bad news on their newscasts because it turns off the viewers. That's why they load their broadcasts up with feel-good stories near the end of their shows.
I suppose that's why they're always oh so glad and approving to take off their shoes and have naked-body xray imaging performed on them at airports.
I suppose they're happy and approve of the video messages being shown inside their local Walmart stores.
--------------------------- Walmart to help Govt fight against terrorism
HOUSTON: The US Department of Homeland Security is in partnership with America?s multinational corporation WalMart to fight against terrorism.
In a campaign ?If you see something, say something?, Walmart?s 588 stores within in a month will show a video message at various counters featuring the US DHS Department Secretary, Mr Janet Napolitano, encouraging customers to report suspicious activity.
Use of public ?is a simple, powerful tool??, Mr Napolitano said in a conference call.
However, a Chambersburg Walmart is the only Pennsylvania store equipped with checkout videos, the company spokesman, Mr Dan Fogleman said.
?We?re proud to be the first national retail partner,? he said. Walmart to help Govt fight against terrorism
-------------------------
Always constantly proving that you're not a threat to law enforcement agencies, or fellow citizens, or even to your kid's grade-school teachers is now your new patriotic duty. Be it at an airport, a road-side alcohol check, or to other shoppers at Walmart.
Trust has been engineered out of your society, replaced by suspicion. The personality of your very country is being stolen from you, with every "Homeland Security" department and every "Anti-Terrorism Czar" that you create.
You mean that you don't have a supply of duct tape and plastic wrap - enough to wrap your house and seal it up in case someone detonates a dirty nuclear or biological bomb nearby?
So you're not personally affected by the tax increases and/or reductions to municiple services that come from all the extra spending on anti-terrorism programs?
Do you live in a state that requires a finger-print to get your drivers license? What a strange concept - we don't have that here in Canada...
You do know that the truth is not seen in the media?
I have plenty of duct tape and plastic, along with all the rest of the odds and ends normally found in a well stocked and equipped workshop. Nothing specific to NBC attacks.
I utilize virtually no "municipal services" and as far as I'm concerned the less I spend on such things the better. As for taxes, I've not seen any notable increases in taxes, I pay plenty of taxes as it is. The AMT "fix" is still far away from "fixing" it for me.
Both states I have CHLs from required fingerprints for them, why would I care about drivers licenses?
harry used improper usenet form when he unnecessarily full-quoted:
You sell your house. What's what happens.
That hasn't happened in Canada. House prices here have not declined. At worst, they've remained static over the past 2 or 3 years in most markets. In other markets, they have still increased.
Have a look at this document:
You'll see how the year/over/year percentage change in house prices have changed since 2000 for various western countries.
The UK has had some major Yo/Y figures (8 to 15%) during 2000 to 2004, followed by a crash of -4 to -10% during the years 2008 to the present. Far larger increase and decrease than even the US has seen, but the US has been in negative territory since 2006.
Japan has been in negative territory for this entire decade.
Ireland is seeing MAJOR negative Yo/Y numbers in 2008, 2009 and 2010 (-10 and -20%).
Spain has been negative since 2008. Australia has been posting erratic numbers this decade, almost all positive, but very high numbers lately (10+ percent this year).
France has been posting negative numbers since 2008, and Germany for this entire decade (what's going on there?).
harry wrote in news:da79305b-4d70-45fc-a7f8- snipped-for-privacy@y3g2000vbm.googlegroups.com:
In most of the US, you walk away from it and incur no penalty other than forfeiting what little equity you might have. That's a consequence of law.
In Canada, you are legally obligated to pay the dollar-amount owing, whether you walk away or not.
Not in the US. In the US, government entities Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA eat the difference, not the banks or the ostensible homeowner. That too is a consequence of law. The law was specifically and particularly designed to insulate banks from risk of borrower default, so that banks would be more willing to lend to deadbeats.
Congress and the executive branch feverishly and maniacally continue to push the public into real-estate debt, as though 2008 never happened. Unreal.
One day, perhaps centuries hence, history will look upon the modern debt- fetish the way we now regard Mayan human-sacrifices.
People are starting to find out that is not true. Back in the olden days when a bank could recover all of what it was owed in the foreclosure sale they let people walk away but now that the loan are more than the house is worth they are coming after the owner for the difference. The only out is bankruptcy.
I believe they're sending 1099 forms to the IRS for the amount not recovered in the foreclosure. You have no money to pay the mortgage and you give the house back to the bank, the bank sells the house at a loss and you get a 1099 for the amount of the loss. The IRS comes after you for the amount on the 1099 as income. Anyway, you get screwed unless you take precautions with other paperwork maneuvers.
On Wed 22 Dec 2010 11:11:25p, The Daring Dufas told us...
But that should not be the case if the house was included in a bankruptcy?
I haven't researched it fully but I think there is some legal maneuvering to protect you from the IRS since you lost your home rather than some investment property. "Boys, we won't get any blood out of this turnip. Let's get after the next one."
TDD
harry wrote in news:5f4c136a-2fff-451f-833a- snipped-for-privacy@p38g2000vbn.googlegroups.com:
Because Canada never goosed the market with the same stupid incentives the US did. If there is a correction, it will likely be quite small. You must also remember that Canada has very few large urban areas, so there are not many places you can move where there are a significant number of jobs. It's not like the US, where you can just move a few hours away and have much lower taxes but the same employment opportunities.
Even the US meltdown was concentrated primarily in areas where it was possible for underwater homebuyers to walk away without penalty, like California and Arizona.
You simply do not understand basic economics. The rich may, individually, have enormously more than an single "worker," but there are relatively few super-rich and almost uncountably many plebeians. If the government takes, say, 50% of the rich folks' assets, the government will have a substantial sum.
But if the government takes only one percent from the downtrodden, the government will have incredibly more than had they pillaged the rich. And without the grief the rich can visit upon the heads of the factotums.
Plus, the rich are not stupid. When Clinton levied a 10% surtax on yachts costing more than $500,000, the rich simply bought their boats in the Bahamas. (And put hundreds of American shipwrights out of work.) Even today, John Kerry is berthing his yacht in Rhode Island to escape the enormous tax in his home state of Massachusetts.
Point is, if the government tries to soak the rich, the rich respond - usually to the detriment of not only the tax collectors but of the workers the rich employ.
It's 20% here. Not a lot of difference.
There aren't all that many here either, OTOH, it doesn't take that many to drag the market under when it does turn South (that fractional reserve can be a bitch).
No, your folks buy their second homes in Nevada, Florida, and Arizona. ;-)
I don't see this as having anything to do with "bubbles", or much of anything else.
*THERE* is the problem. Congress screwed the pooch on that one!How is that automatically "over-valued"?
Nonsense. Their self-destruction is completely self-induced. It's been a thugocracy for decades.
So you're saying that you would never submit to chemotherapy? How many people are harmed by drugs? How many more would be were drugs legal?
Clueless.
That's *dumb*. To get a mortgage rate reduction one has to move.
You can't in the US, either. They may take the keys and sell the house at foreclosure, but that doesn't in any way relieve the borrower of his obligations. Bankruptcy *might*.
Clueless.
Does anyone argue that Congress is 1) stupid and 2) crooked?
That's a lie. Under any foreclosure (and handing the keys in to the bank is a foreclosure) the borrower is *still* responsible for the entire loan, unless discharged in a bankruptcy (which is difficult to do).
The US is no different.
Not true. The bank gets it money, but the borrower is still on the hook for the money.
Nonsense.
Clueless.
No, home loans that are discharged are not taxable income. Other discharged loans *are*.
There is something wrong here. Forgiveness on mortgage loans is not taxable.
Clueless.
Laughably clueless.
Like there is a choice? Wanna go to jail?
That's our stupid government, thanks to Obama, *NOT* the population at large.
No.
Nope. The lights are still on and the garbage was collected today. ..and they managed to send us the bill for it all this month.
You don't see very well up there either.
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