I think it is more comfort than absolute BTU efficiency. For most of the year, the lower BTU unit is fine.
All I know is that when the heat kicks on high, it is like kicking on the after burners in a jet, it cranks out a lot of heat. And I've not seen it happen yet other than in testing, it takes a multi degree thermometer change to kick it in.
I only have a single speed A/C. I keep the variable speed blower on all the time, it evens out the temp.
-- If I had something witty to say, this is where I'd say it.