OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?

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This question is about the decision process involved with replacing the timing belt in a vehicle "now" or "later".
Let's not confuse the issue with cost or voiding warranties, etc. Let's assume there is no warranty to deal with and that the cash is readily available, both now and later.
Here's the situation a friend and I were discussing the other day:
The manual - and therefore the dealer - says the timing belt on his vehicle should be replaced at 90K, which is right where he's at.
He called around to various repair shops for a price and multiple places told him "I've never seen a timing belt go on that vehicle before 110K. The dealers just want their money early. There's no need to replace it at 90K." He was even able to "verify" that opinion on the web.
OK, so let's say that you are planning to keep the vehicle for the foreseeable future, probably well beyond 110K. That means that you will need to replace the timing belt, probably in about a year, to be safe.
So here's what I was thinking:
There's a pretty slim chance that you'll keep the vehicle for the full life of the second timing belt. That would put you in the 220K range. Even if you replaced it at 90K and it really will last 110K, that's still pushing 200K.
Why would you wait until next year and not replace it at 90K? Even at the dealer's "accelerated" schedule, you're good until 180K, by which time you'll probably have gotten rid of the car, so why not be *extra* cautious and replace it now?
Thoughts?
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No, it's not "pushing 200K", unless you came from one of those families where math was considered an elitist subject.

Because you want to post messages on usenet, saying you "proved" that timing belts can last more than 90K.

Because you enjoy having your vehicle stop running when you least expect it, perhaps far from home where you have a mechanic you've trusted for years.
You also imagine that you can predict when the water pump will go bad.
Tell your friend to stop being a moron for a day and get the belt & water pump replaced.
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wrote:

Yeah, and why he's at it, he should also get the AC compressor and the alternator replaced. (rolling eyes).
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wrote:

Yeah, and why he's at it, he should also get the AC compressor and the alternator replaced. (rolling eyes).
=========== On what planet would the AC compressor make your **necessarily** car stop running? The word "necessarily" eliminates mentioning the one exceptional condition under which it might happen, because that situation is avoidable by operating a switch.
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wrote:

You obviously missed the point. No comment on the alternator? What about the power steering pump...should he get that replaced also?
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You obviously missed the point. No comment on the alternator? What about the power steering pump...should he get that replaced also? ================= I just checked my manual and found no manufacturer-recommended replacement intervals for the items you mentioned. Therefore, they are not in the same category as an item which DOES come with such recommendations.
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wrote:

I can't even remember that last time I had a water pump fail....probably sometime in the early 80's on a Celia that had about 150K on it.
Spending money just to be spending is stupid, And most of the shops use aftermarket parts which end up failing before the factory part would have anyway.
Oh, and I just checked the owners manuals for my Honda, Toyota, and Mazda...and there is ZIPPO about replacing the water pump. I suggest you buy a better car.
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I can't even remember that last time I had a water pump fail....probably sometime in the early 80's on a Celia that had about 150K on it.
Spending money just to be spending is stupid, And most of the shops use aftermarket parts which end up failing before the factory part would have anyway.
Oh, and I just checked the owners manuals for my Honda, Toyota, and Mazda...and there is ZIPPO about replacing the water pump. I suggest you buy a better car.
=========
I own a Toyota Tacoma. What would you suggest I buy instead?
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wrote:

Well if it REALLY says to replace the water pump, I would ignore it. But hey, that's just me.
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The water pump replacement depends on the car. Some Toyotas have the water pump under the timing belt and you have to remove all the stuff anyway. Might as well spend an extra $ 100 while inside the motor. If you only got 150 K miles out of the water pump that means your pump may fail 30 K miles or so before you go back into the moter for the timing belt. Timing belts fail and leave you stranded. The alternator can go out and usually you can still drive for a short distance. If the AC compressor fails, you just get hot and it can be repaired at any time. Some cars break the timing belt and the valves hit the pistons and you are in for major expenses.
Why change oil? Just add some if needed..
I had a Toyota with enough miles on it to replace the belt the second time. I did not change it as the trade in value was only about what the belt change would have been. I had decided if it failed to just let the car go to the junk yard. It did last long enough that I bought a new truck. I sold the car to a co-worker. I did tell him the belt ws about 20 K miles overdue and if he did not change it right away not to ask for a refund. My mechanic wanted to change the water pump and he showed me why. I let him. He only uses parts made by the makers of the cars he works on for major parts.
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On Tue, 15 Jun 2010 13:40:39 -0700, Ron wrote:

I had one go on a Rover 216 (which had a Honda-built engine) at around 100k - I think it cost me about $60 for the pump and $40 for a new belt (made sense to do that while I was at it). Took me a couple of hours to do the work, so it wasn't too bad - the real pain was having it fail at work rather than home, so I had to get a tow from a friend.

I don't think I'd expect that to be in the owner's manual; it's more of a factory manual kind of thing.
On a lot of engines I've seen, the water pump runs at very high RPM, which is why they have a harder life than a lot of other engine components. They're not normally expensive, and it's usually trivial to do the work while the timing belt's being done anyway. Alternators, PAS pumps etc. don't stop the car from working and are easy to do without a significant amount of work, so they can just be replaced when they fail.
cheers
Jules
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Ron wrote:

The whole concept of external vs. internal components hard for you to grasp? You replace water pump with the rubber band timing belt because the thing is apart anyway, and all you are paying for is the part. The stuff hung off the engine is much less labor to change, other than the evac/refill and pressure test on the A/C.
--
aem sends...

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Please point out to me where the OP said the car in question has a internal water pump driven by the timing belt, smartass.
Not ALL cars (including the 3 that I own) have an internal water pump, Mr Know It All.
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BTW, a LOT of "garages" use shitty aftermarket parts that won't last as long as the factory part anyway.
Case in point.......I had the right front wheel bearing replaced on my Honda at 85,000 miles, now 10,000 miles later, it is already failing.
And that was at a chain tire store.
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On 6/15/2010 11:47 PM, Ron wrote:

Sure, only because lots of folks seemed to have totally embraced cheap instead of value. We use an evil mom & pop place and he will explicitly offer both the junky parts and the quality parts when quoting a repair.

I wouldn't expect any different. But they do have great marketing...
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Even a cheap chinese bearing will last a lot longer than that. It was not lubricated properly when installed. You should go back and tell them you want if done again, right, for free.
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wrote:
Case in point.......I had the right front wheel bearing replaced on my Honda at 85,000 miles, now 10,000 miles later, it is already failing.
And that was at a chain tire store.
================= You let chain tire stores work on your car? That invalidates EVERYTHING you've said in this discussion, and everything you say in the future, unless you repent.
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wrote:

I can almost guarantee the problem was not the quality of the replacement part but the intelligence of the trained gorilla that installed it. Chain tire stores are NOT the place to have mechanical repairs performed.
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On Jun 16, 8:01pm, snipped-for-privacy@snyder.on.ca wrote:

It was at a Goodyear and they replace front end parts all the time. Much rather go there than to some independent mechanic...and no, I'm not gonna go to a dealership.
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et>
If it's anything like the Goodyear store near me, they replace front end parts all the time, whether they're needed or not.
My wife and son both bought tires at the local Goodyear within a few months of each other. They were both told that the ball joints were too worn to do a front-end alignment. They were both told that they needed the right *and* left ball joints replaced before the alignment could be done.
After being quoted prices in the $500 range, they both went for a second opinion - to different places.
My wife ended up needing one replaced, my son didn't need either one.
When they compared notes once they realized that the same thing had happened to both of them, they found that they both told the same thing, just about word for word. "On a scale of 1 to 5" was the technique that Goodyear used, and the numbers they were told matched, side for side. Coincidence? I think not.
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