The real housing crisis is one of quantity

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On Tue, 06 May 2008 14:47:05 -0400, george conklin wrote:

The clumping of population is much less affected by social policy than by natural resources and voluntary social interactions. "policy" certainly will have an effect; especially tax policy and such things as zoning. But zoning and such as that are the candles on the cake. People live where they do much more because of climate, jobs, family, and all sorts of stuff that is not "policy". Good local policies regarding local development can be very beneficial. But people will tend to clump together near natural water and such without any "policy".
--
"I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers
of society but the people themselves; and
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The stated goal of Smart Growth IS population concentration. It is the same in UK. Urban growth boundries for example. Infill for another. This not "natural." It is manipulation for ideological reasons by people who have an agenda, and the public good is not a part of the agenda either.
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george conklin wrote:

Thanks. That's the funniest thing I've read in weeks.
Mark M.
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Smart Growth wants urban growth boundaries. This is population concentration. Smart Growth wants infill. This is population concentration. Smart Growth wants "shared walls." This is population concentration. The Sierra Club wants "efficient urbanization." This is population concentration. Population concentration is social policy and it does not good to hide the fact.
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george conklin wrote:

Sprawl happens because around every city land is hoarded in anticipation of price appreciation. Land users must bypass this high priced land. This means a settlement footprint greater than land users actually want.
There is nothing natural about millions of people spending two or more hours a day in their cars just to get to and from work. It is a symptom of something stupid.
If all land were up for lease bid, what kind of settlement pattern do you suppose would result? Would people prefer to live farther from their jobs, friends, shops, entertainment, and services?
Why is land much more expensive where population is dense rather than in the sticks?
What makes a great retail location?
Mark M.
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it
of
Paranoid emotions do not cause sprawl.
Land users must bypass this high priced land. This

of
More paranoid rantings. The average commute is 21 minutes. Sorry about the FActs. They make you look silly.
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On Wed, 7 May 2008 19:57:46 -0400, "George Conklin"

And then there is the person who drowned in the stream with an average depth of 6 inches (15.24 cm.). Averages on this are misleading for several reasons. The accuracy of the reporting of commute time may be open to question (I suspect that transit may be more underestimated than automobile). My wife did have about a 20 minute commute when she was working. The transit or drive portion of my commute when I lived and worked in Bloomfield, NJ varied from 2 minutes (train) to 5 minutes (bus) with the car being in between. Given parking the walking varied from 2 - 5 minutes so the time spent moving was about 10 minutes. Add 5 - 10 minutes wait for the transit depending on how closely I timed it (and if I ate breakfast and read my newspaper I timed it fairly close to the schedule), I spent less time waiting in the morning. I would time my departure from work to the transit schedule. You can tell I was lazy in a sense since the walk was 20 - 25 minutes door to door.
I would assume the commute time includes people who work from home. I don't know how they account for people who have varying work locations (housekeepers, visiting nurses, electricians, consultants, etc.).
The distribution of commutes and the sources of information would be of great interest.
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population
is
and
anticipation
symptom
about
Averages are the true picture, not your emotions.
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... Another interesting thing to look at would be minimum commuting times. If you take out people who work out of there homes, what does the distribution at the very short end of commuting look like? What is the minimum distance that people want to live from their employment? That could have a profound impact on Smart Growth and other things. --------------------------
I've never once hear anyone say "I have to live at least 10 miles from where I work." I would think that unless you're in an unpleasant business, like sewage treatment, there's more likely to be a _maximum_ difference people want to live from their employment.
-Amy
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On Thu, 8 May 2008 13:20:36 -0500, "Amy Blankenship"

Actually my wife found that the 20 minute commute (about 15 miles) was useful in separating work from home and I have heard the same thing from other people. The idea of a minimum commute or separation distance is worth exploring.

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where
like
If planners could have come up with a planned society which had 20 minute commutes they would be screaming, "success, success, success." 20 minutes is a minimum commute.
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people
George. If the average commute is 24 minutes, the minimum commute ain't 20 minutes.
Overall 20 minutes is the minimum a society is likely to obtain. Even in bicycle-oriented societies, like India used to be, it takes quite a bit of time to get through crowded streets to get to work.
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wrote:>>

No, the APA has been trying to LENGTHEN commutes for many years now to FORCE people out of their cars.
If reducing communting time and congestion were the goal, they've been using some really bizarre tactics.
Note, too, that of all the money garnered from fuel taxes, how much winds up in the general fund and hou much is poured into road funding of bridges (Ted Stevens) and roads to "no where" (Robert Byrd).
(See earlier post regarding the fallacy of government planning)
As well, local traffic departments have been playing with traffic controls to encourgae violations and increase revenue from traffic fines.

And the whole premise is wrong, given the points above.
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from
minute
minutes
If an overall co mmute time of 20 minutes is "ideal" (to which Amy will demand that you cite something); then an average of 24 is pretty darned good. Free markets prevail. People know what they want.
--
Apparently in Europe too people are willing to spend 1 hour to get to work.
We are a long, long ways from that. Amos Hawley is known for that rule in
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where
I agree that for most people, they need "decompression time" on the way home -- plus a grocery store in many cases. Most people wouldn't like working from home -- especially people in manufacturing.
--

I can just see it now...assemble your Toyota at home. Really?



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like
people
text -

Would it be "assemble the Toyota at home" or would it be "live at the Toyota factory"?
Remember all of the old worker-cottages and crappy row housing built next to factories that spewed out who-knows-what from back in the Industrial Revolution days (before good transportation). Well, people left that model and headed to the suburbs to get away from it. People wanted to be away from work. I don't think things have changed too much.
--
Can you imagine living over McDonalds? What about over Wal-Mart?



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wrote in message

Those particular businesses are optimized to work best when _nobody_ lives within walking distance of them, especially Wal-Mart. So of course they'd be unpleasant to live over.
OTOH, I'd _love_ to live over a curry house, as my friend in London did.
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wrote in message

Burger King might be almost as bad. My wife cooks curry and just one day's worth changes the aroma in the house for 2 weeks.
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CB05-AC.02 Ranking tables [PDFs]: State | County | Place Extreme Commutes Photos Press Kit
Americans Spend More Than 100 Hours Commuting to Work Each Year, Census Bureau Reports New York and Maryland Residents Face Most Time Traveling to Work Americans spend more than 100 hours commuting to work each year, according to American Community Survey (ACS) data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. This exceeds the two weeks of vacation time (80 hours) frequently taken by workers over the course of a year. For the nation as a whole, the average daily commute to work lasted about 24.3 minutes in 2003.
"This annual information on commuters and their work trips and other transportation-related data will help local, regional and state agencies maintain, improve, plan and develop the nation's transportation systems," said Census Bureau Director Louis Kincannon. "American Community Survey data will provide valuable assistance to agencies offering housing, education and other public services as well."
Based on a ranking of states with the longest average commute-to-work times, the ACS showed that New York (30.4 minutes) and Maryland (30.2 minutes) residents spent the most time traveling to their jobs. New Jersey (28.5 minutes), Illinois (27.0 minutes) and California (26.5 minutes) were also among states with some of the longest one-way commute times. States with some of the lowest average commute times included South Dakota (15.2 minutes), North Dakota (15.4 minutes), Nebraska (16.5 minutes) and Montana (16.9 minutes). (See state rankings [PDF].)
Of the 231 counties with populations of 250,000 or more covered by the ACS, Queens (41.7 minutes), Richmond (41.3 minutes), Bronx (40.8 minutes) and Kings (39.7 minutes) - four of the five counties that comprise New York City - experienced the longest average commute-to-work times. Additionally, workers living in Prince William County, Va. (36.4 minutes); and Prince George's County, Md. (35.5 minutes); - suburban counties located within the Washington, D.C. metro area - also faced some of the longest commutes. (See county rankings [PDF].)
In a ranking of large cities (with populations of 250,000 or more), New York (38.3 minutes); Chicago (33.2 minutes); Newark, N.J. (31.5 minutes); Riverside, Calif. (31.2 minutes); Philadelphia (29.4 minutes); and Los Angeles (29.0 minutes) had among the nation's highest average commute times. Among the 10 cities with the highest average commuting times, New York and Baltimore lay claim to having the highest percentage of people with "extreme" commutes; 5.6 percent of their commuters spent 90 or more minutes getting to work. People with extreme commutes were also heavily concentrated in Newark, N.J. (5.2 percent); Riverside, Calif. (5.0 percent); Los Angeles (3.0 percent); Philadelphia (2.9 percent); and Chicago (2.5 percent). Nationally, just 2.0 percent of workers faced extreme commutes to their jobs. (See extreme commutes rankings [PDF].)
In contrast, workers in several cities are fortunate enough to experience relatively short commute times, including Corpus Christi, Texas (16.1 minutes); Wichita, Kan. (16.3 minutes); Tulsa, Okla. (17.1 minutes); and Omaha, Neb. (17.3 minutes). (See city rankings [PDF].)
Other highlights:
Chicago; Riverside, Calif.; and Los Angeles were the only cities among those with the highest average travel times to work that are not located on the East Coast. Among the 10 counties with the highest average commuting times, the highest percentages of extreme commuters were found in the New York City metro area: Richmond, N.Y. (11.8 percent); Orange, N.Y. (10.0 percent); Queens, N.Y. (7.1 percent); Bronx, N.Y. (6.9 percent); Nassau, N.Y., (6.6 percent); and Kings, N.Y. (5.0). Among the 10 states with the highest average commuting times, the highest percentages of their workers commuting 90 or more minutes to their job were found in New York (4.3 percent), New Jersey (4.0 percent) and Maryland (3.2 percent). The new ACS is the cornerstone of the government's effort to keep pace with the country's ever-increasing demands for timely and relevant population and housing data. Being mailed to about 250,000 (roughly 1-in-480) addresses a month nationwide, the ACS will provide current demographic, housing, social and economic information about America's communities every year - information previously available only once every 10 years.
- x - The American Community Survey data are based on responses from a sample of households across the nation. The estimates and rankings may vary from the actual values because of sampling or nonsampling variations. The statistical statements have undergone testing, and comparisons are significant at the 90-percent confidence level. Additional information and data profiles for the nation, states, counties and places may be accessed at <http://www.census.gov/acs or <http://factfinder.census.gov .
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Just read the book "The Last Harvest" to see how the cost of housing is drive sky-high by smart growth limits and governmental foot-dragging.
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