A lot of people here can't get it that fossil/fossil derived fuel is cheap at the moment. When this recession ends, the price will double or quadruple, all these Chinese/Indians/Brasilians are wanting cars, TVs etc.
So if you have a petrol/diesel car the price of fuel will likely be
10/litre in five or six years time. The wind and sun will always be free.
So I will have free fuel whilst you pay 0.6/Kwh for gas and electricity/shivering in the house and will be riding on the bus.
Unless you have a well insulated house, an electric car and PV panels.
The fracking gas will be exploited as quickly as possible and exported to France/Europe while we have to put upwith all the mess, traffic, excavations andpollution. The Frogs are cunningly hoarding their supply for the future.
Unless the Taliban have taken over, in which case you will be riding on a donkey.
I hear donkey shit makes a good fuel for cooking on if thoroughly dried. But that would be wimmins work.
Wrong as usual Harry. When the prices were rising, there was a lot of exploration going on. When the prices fell, a lot of potential oil wells had been found but there was no incentive to exploit them and production was also cut back on existing wells. When demand starts to rise again, those wells will come on line. Prices did go as high as $134 at the start of the recession, but that was an artificial high, caused by the delays between demand, exploration and exploitation. If demand reaches those levels again, the exploration has been done and oil prices are unlikely to rise much, if at all. In fact, most well-informed forecasters are expecting the end of the recession to result in oil prices falling, not rising, as production becomes more efficient with the greater demand.
The low hanging fruit has been plucked. We are down to arctic and deep ocean drilling, an expensive business.. Frack gas will give a short respite, but it will be expensive. And messy.
And even a small shortfall in fuel causes massive price rises. (As in the
70's) And a shortfall is what we will have when/if this reccession ends.
Why do you suppose this is happeneing?
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Could it be they don't actually have all the oil people think? If not, what else could it be?
You do spout some rubbish Harry. The oil industry works on proven reserves, which are what it is economically and technically feasible to extract today. If a field is too expensive to work today, it does not end up in the proven reserves. Nevertheless, in the long term the oil industry continues to discover oil faster than the demand is growing.
Proven reserves are also based upon P90 - the amount it is 90% certain a field will produce. Globally, fields produce, on average, at the P50 figure, which means there is probably about three times as much oil available with today's technology and at today's prices as the official figures show. Add in expected technical advances and the figure of recoverable oil may be as much as 10 times the proven reserves.
If prices rise beyond about $100 a barrel, non-conventional oil sources start to become viable, greatly increasing the reserves available. Your wild claims of double or quadruple fuel prices are, frankly, laughable, particularly as 60% of what we pay at the pump is tax and duty.
A shortfall causes a temporary price rise, because it takes time to open new wells and build new refineries to meet the higher demand. However, because we had very high prices just before the recession, that work has already been done. As I said, the well-informed forecasters expect prices to fall as demand increases, because the wells and refineries will be able to work more efficiently at the higher outputs and shipping fleets will not have the cost of tankers sitting idle.
I doubt anybody in the oil industry actually believes the Saudi claims for their oil reserves. Their figures have not been revised despite 20 years of production with no new major finds. This is common to all OPEC countries, as their quotas are based upon their claimed reserves, so they have no incentive to make realistic returns. This is well known and industry forecasts of oil reserves take it into account.
Diversification? They're investing in an additional energy source to meet domestic demand and enable oil otherwise used for electricity to be sold more profitably?
So,first you say all this blah about "Proven reserves".
And then you say nobody believes these figures, they are lies? (Only you?)
Ri...........ght then.
The only reason we have the oil we have today is because it is economically viable to get it out because it is expensive. As we chase smaller and more inaccessible fields it will need to get more expensive still.
There could be a reason for these lies. It's so idiots like you won't start looking for energy alternatives.
That's the reason we are building wind turbines/PV arrays. Not everyone is an idiot like you. Fortunately.
So there is a shortage of oil, they can no longer use it for both? My point exactly.
Their home consumption is tiny compared with what they export. So nuclear makes no sense at all unless they are running out of oil. Which means the world price will go up.
Why do you suppose they are investing money in London property istead of searching for more oil? Answer. There is none.
We also are diversifying. Into renewables. Just be thankful instead of whineing.
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