I was watching a programme about the likely progress of the disease. Much was made of computer predictions ('models') of how things will develop. Having spent a lot of time learning about the computer modelling of future climate conditions, I've seen how every prediction has turned out to be, to a greater or lesser extent, wrong. The large majority have been so significantly wrong as to be useless. So I don't have much faith in the scientists' predictions about Corona.
Bill
I think you'll find that the modelling of the spread of infectious diseases is much simpler than the modelling of the climate, and has probably been fairly well confirmed by various epidemics over the decades, using subjects as varied as fruit fly populations in lab cages to humans.
But certainly, climate modelling is pretty dire and subject to so much uncertainty as to be not fit for purpose, and it's not surprising that predictions bear little resemblance to reality. Rubbish in - rubbish out!
Oddly enough simulating disease is way easier than simulating climate. However the same problem of known unknowns exist. How contagious is it? What is the mortality rate? How will people respond? Are there any treatments that will be found? How far will governments go in overegging the pudding in order to conveniently solve other problems like the debt crisis by going for martial law and a raid on savings?
That's more like it. Back to your usual form but managing to keep it much shorter, this time round,
michael adams
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I think the difference her is that this is killing people, and I think I'd rather be inconvenienced for a few months than be dead throe inaction. If you listened last night I definitely heard that there is going to be an experiment done if infection rates and deaths reduces after these new rules within a couple of months by in some parts of the country, relaxing the rules. The ideal will be that immunity will them be higher, and we can gradually get back to normal, but if there is signs of a new peak, they will be re introduced within a month. There is a person in Japan who has had it twice, which though worrying, may well be an outlier and not typical. With no data to go on, we are grasping in the dark, merely trying to flatten the expontial growth so nhs can cope. This seems to be what is going on in most other countries too. I think places to watch will be African countries where they have poor health care systems. If the death toll self limits than we may need to bite the bullet and just let it happen, but I'd not want to be the Prime minister who has to announce that. Brian
There are actually two strains of the virus so it's *possible* that this person got one and then the other (though they are similar enough I think that one gives some immunity to the other).
Alternatively of course it may just be an error or a rare occurrence. My wife has had chicken pox lots of times though for most people one bout confers immunity.
Nothing odd about it.
Not that many parameters, and easier to have a stab at them.
Responses just feed into the R factor. Treatments only affect the long term.
And *lots* of historic data, as a guide.
What's much more challenging is to predict the economic consequences. I can't believe it will really have that much effect on the food supply chain (not being plague or ebola). But it is going to stuff pubs and restaurants very quickly.
Businesses that have staff in self isolation at home will find it hard to function.
Business that depend on human interaction will be shot I wouldn't be, for example, a rent boy or call girl right now...
And I need a haircut :-(
Snips in Harpenden is functioning today:-)
>
Our local pub is doing takeaway meals.
You might *want* one, but do you really need it :-)
Obviously, yes, a lot of businesses other than pubs are going to be in trouble. But quite a surprising number these days can operate from staff at home, with secure laptops that can VPN into their computers. One of our kids is doing this now in a fairly senior role in the energy markets. In engineering sectors you don't need libraries, drawing offices, reprographics for blueprints, etc and all the typists and almost all of the filing staff are long gone. Of course you need some interaction in the creative bits but even that is getting easier with Skype, etc.
We were discussing this elsewhere. There's always condoms and glory holes!
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