January’s Dunkelflaute

Feb 01, 2025 Last reply: 1 year ago 14 Replies

From (the real) Gridwatch, it appears that Gas outperformed Wind for a



15-day period, from the 8th to the 22nd inclusive.

Judging by eye, the difference was an average of 11GW, for a total of 4TWh.



In December there were four short periods where Gas had to step in again, for an estimated 2TWh.



And in November there was another series of days, totalling 18, where Gas was the main provider, for some 4TWh of Wind shortfall.



Since there was insufficient surplus energy available to recharge any battery farms that could have supplied these shortfalls, it would seem that battery storage is a non-starter as backup to Wind.



Rachel Reeves was on the radio this week extolling the virtues of Hydrogen.


She probably lights her own farts

Was there surplus interconnector lecky available from abroad but the price was wrong compared to gas generation?

There is next to no "green" hydrogen in the uk and more generally it cannot be distributed via the existing gas grid pipeline as hydrogen is too small and would leak through those pipes.

I don’t collect data on other sources of energy input, but my impression is that the interconnectors were melting with all the energy we were importing,

I get the impression that Rachel Reeves doesn’t know much about hydrogen…or electricity…or gas…or solar…or the interconnectors…

Two schemes (Redcar and Ellesmere Port) to convert local mains gas to hydrogen were cancelled ...partly due to residents being against it and partly due to lack of green hydrogen.

Just came from a presnetation about this:

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They're at the stage of installing solar; next stage is converting surplus electricity to hydrogen.

I (clearly) can't follow the science - they and the assembled seemed very enthusiastic.

Given the current feed in tariffs are so low, it does make some sense to convert the excess solar into hydrogen.

It would make more sense to have some batteries so you can avoid using power at peak tariffs. Perhaps they already do that?

They are counting on that.

- they and the assembled seemed very

They are paid to be. Astroturfing. Let's face it if you weren't already dead keen or being paid to be there and do the ra-ra thing, why would you be there?

The renewable blob is looking for any conceivable way that renewables might in theory be made to work in order to preserve their façade of actually being a serious power generating solution.

In reality the grid is boring well understood electrical engineering. Bang in nuclear power plants as close to the cities that need the power as possible, have a very small grid for balancing between them only, use what hydro and pumped storage is feasible and economically viable to cover daily peaks, and use gas in an emergency.

Do routine maintenance in summer, when demands is lower

Stabilise the grid by taking all intermittent renewables off it

Jobs a good un!

Seeing the term dunkelflaute, I realised I'd forgotten what the opposite term is. In the German summer in a hot spell, so much lecky is generated off the roofs midday their grid manderins have to pay a fortune to neighbouring countries to take the surplus .

I took the gamble of going for the Octopus tracker tariff (October version and my region seems to be more expensive than most). For the whole of November I paid around the same as the capped rate for both gas and electriity. December and January I paid significantly more than their fixed rate, at rate lower than the capped rate. There were only a few days when the price fell below the fixed rate by more than 10p/unit for electricity. I can confirm that the prices were high(er) during the multiple Dunkelflaute events when demand was also high.

I’ve been on an Octopus fixed deal for some months, and out of curiosity recently looked up the current prices for their Variable tariff.

I’m very glad I fixed when I did!

As I understand it when the manufacturers say that their boilers are suitable fo Hydrogen they are referring to a 10% Hyrogen, 90% Natural Gas mix. I don't believe that there are any proposals to distribute 100% Hydrogen through the existing gas pipelines. Politicians and the Green lobby may have got the wrong idea.

We're a couple of weeks away from a full year on Tracker - the December 2023 tariff which is a bit cheaper than the current one. With heating being ASHP most of our electricity demand comes in the winter (heating runs 24/7). Here's the numbers (first two weeks of Feb 24 on the flexible tariff):

£ kWh St.chrg£ p/kWh exc st.ch. Feb24 177.71 724.25 12.18 22.85 Mar 150.92 742.04 13.02 18.58 Apr 115.49 572.23 12.60 17.98 May 101.17 442.29 13.02 19.93 Jun 92.17 402.00 12.60 19.79 Jul 90.18 392.44 13.02 19.66 Aug 90.48 417.92 13.02 18.53 Sep 94.55 398.37 12.60 20.57 Oct 121.71 505.00 13.02 21.52 Nov 197.71 794.41 12.60 23.30 Dec 210.32 889.06 13.02 22.19 Jan25 322.33 1193.06 13.02 25.93 Total 1764.74 7473.07 153.76 Average cost per kWh exc. standing charge 21.56p Average cost per kWh inc. standing charge 23.6p

So even after a heavy winter it's still beaten the flexible rate, although not by so much - and the current tracker tariff is worse.

I'm waiting until it expires and will then ponder where to go next. Some of Tomato's tariffs look interesting.

Theo

On the October 2024 tracker tariff my average* cost for electricity November/December/January exc. standing charge was 25.1p/kWh

Instead of signing up for the tracker tariff I could have signed up for their fixed deal @ 24.26p/kWh

Gas over the same period Tracker = 6p/kWh compared with their fixed price of 5.6p/kWh

The figures are somewhat skewed for December because I was away from home for 3 weeks and the gas CH set for frost protection @ 12C. It did come on a few times. The electricity during the same period was supplying all electrical goods left on, fridge, freezer, PVR, Router, dawn to dusk outside lights, security cameras , alarm etc.

*Figures based on the average of around 4500 smart meter readings.

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