QUORA: Was WWI avoidable?
by David Lipman, former 1st Cavalry Division (1983-1987) Answered Oct 22, 2018 The fact that the Great War was avoidable is one of that wars many tragedies. When dealing with jealous, competetive, and powerful nation states, a deft diplomacy is mandatory. But wise diplomacy was gone from Germany, the young and foolish Kaiser dismissed the masterful Bismark. It took a diplomat of Bismarks skill to balance the jealous rivals Germanies nationhood had created. With his ouster, the diplomacy of Germany became erratic.
The French were burning for the return of Alsace and Lorraine. Provinces taken in the final of three wars Bismark had instigated to form the German nation in 1870. France knew she would need powerful allies to defeat the new German colossus. Bismark had kept Russia tied to Germany. The Kaiser threw this ?Three Emperors League? away. France quickly filled the void. The Kaisers stupidity had lost Russia to France.
Britain was finished with ?Splendid Isolation?. She sought naval agreements with the rising naval power of Germany. The Germans wanted a firm alliance, far more than Britain could countenance. The end result was no agreement at all. The Kaisers ship building mania alienated the British. The German fleet could have but one adversary. Each new German dreadnought drove the British from friendly neutral into implacable foe. Bismark wanted no colonies and a small fleet. Kaiser Wilhelm II demanded an Empire and an all powerful fleet. In the end he got neither. His idiocy drove the British into an alliance with France. A happening that would have been unthinkable only a few years earlier. France had her powerful allies. She was ready.
This left Germany tied to the moribund Hapsburg domains. Nationalism was the death of Austria Hungary. She was a Medievel holdover, the peoples under her control increasingly restive. The Archdukes assassination gave her the pretext she wanted. Crushing Serbia would surely bind the ramshackle realm together. In reality, the Hapsburgs were on borrowed time. They were too weak to do anything without German support. Serbia was frantic to avoid war. All the Kaiser and Germany had to do was to leash their Austrian dog. But they supported A-H totally. Given the go ahead, the Hapsburgs attacked Serbia and the lights went out in Europe.
Mobilisation meant war. Germany and the Kaiser could have stopped it with a word. Deny the Hapsburgs German support, and she was powerless. But A-H was given a ?blank check?. The Dual Monarchy would not have attacked Serbia alone. Russia was the Serbs protector. The Austrians wisely had no stomach for a death match, unaided, against Serbia's powerful protector. The Kaiser and Germany's support insured that the war would be fought.
If only Germany had wise statesmen, if only the Kaiser was not quite the ass that he proved to be. If only, if only. The two saddest words in the English language.