Another OT grumble - yellow warnings of rain

[David]

There is a yellow warning of rain in effect for East Anglia; local forecasts show thunder and heavy rain. They were due to start at 10:00 - now slowly going later in the day and reducing in length and intensity.

Sky blue, radar shows no rain anywhere near, lightning map shows no lightning anywhere near.

This is the second time in a week or so we have had a yellow warning and no sign of rain. Wouldn't mind so much but this kind of severe weather warning makes you change your plans. Also, we could do with some rain.

In general I have found the Met Office forecasts to be pretty reliable so I have no idea what is going on at the moment.

Bad weather over Belgium. Wonder if that is what we were expecting?

Cheers

Dave R

[The Natural Philosopher]

look at te charts, te satellites and the rain radar.

Stick in the middle ofteast anglia, its a lovely sunny day here.

shwos two cold fromts coming in, usiually assocaute with pretty heavy convective rainfall at this time of year.

shows shit over belgium but no sign of rain in east anglia.

But really, who is showing yellow warnings?

Not the boy buggering corporation?

Or the met office, famnous for predicting global warming that doesnt exist?

[Jethro_uk]

We had this 3 weeks ago, and last week.

A 2-day yellow warning of rain, but with the %age probability of rain for each 2 hour interval never exceeding 10% ....

Both times, we had *no* rain.

Not just the Met Office, Accuweather too. Unless they just represent data from the Met Office.

I am still of the belief that there is some "smoothing algorithm" in play at the Met Office, to shape forecasts to suggest their own agenda.

[Chris J Dixon]

Chris

[Robin]

It's the Great British public (and tabloids) wot dunnit.

People grumbling about too many warnings get little publicity and sympathy.

People flooded (or drowned) when there were no warnings get a lot of both.

If you would really do it differently if you ran the Met Office and your c*ck was on the block then you're a better man than I am, Gunga Din.

[The Natural Philosopher]

The problem is they dont run it, they are all just cowardly arse coverers and box tickers.

Thats an attitude that becanme predominant with Blair, when people saw that what mattered was simply not getting caught. It didnt matter that you went to war on false data that any normal person with a modicum of education could see through,. what mattered was that you coulod claim it wasnt your fault.

Its the way a communist state works.

Competence is not rewarded, only perceived lack of it punished.

[Cursitor Doom]

The Buggers Broadcasting Communism cannot be trusted to accurately report

*anything* - and sadly that includes simple, non-partisan stuff like the weather forecast. There is *nothing* that's beyond their capability to f*ck up.

[David]

Can I add a grumble about this modern technology stuff?

RainToday doesn't show any rain in the area but it just started raining.

Not enough to water the garden, but progress.

Cheers

Dave R

[David]

Woo Hoo!

Lightning off Southwold.

Spits and spats of rain only, but stuff starting to show up on the radar.

Still, even the forecast radar doesn't show anything happening apart from a brief burst at Southwold and Lowestoft and then off into the sea.

I think I should be doing something more productive than watching weather web sites.

Cheers

Dave R

[Dave Plowman (News)]

It's not uncommon with thurderstorms. Can be very local indeed. And forecasts are for an area. Not your garden. ;-)

[Terry Casey]

Met Office:Between 10:00 Mon 10th and 18:00 Mon 10th

Heavy, thundery showers could lead to localised flooding, especially where they affect urban areas.

I hope you were enjoying the glorious sunshine on the coast anywhere between Felixtow and Yarmouth in the past hour or so where peak rainful has been in the area of and inch in an hour!

I suggest that you look up the definition of 'localized' ...

Well the day isn't over yet and it has rained in Folkestone and Dover plus some far heavier burst in Central/Northern Kent.

Considering the way the rain followed the channel this morning, it only had to be a few miles further north to drench the South and Kentish coasts.

No doubt you would like a forecast that shows you if it is going to rain on your side of the road or not but there are limits to achievable accuracy!

[Jethro_uk]

Quite.

Both times, not a drop of rain in the entire area (if 12 counties counts ? ).

[David]

Looking a bit more accurate now as there is a massive thunder storm off the coast from (I think) about Sizewell north to Lowestoft.

I think that may be where the peak rainfall is.

A bit of rain at the moment but mainly blue skies. We shall see what develops because the radar is not showing showers starting to pop out of nowhere.

Perhaps I have done the Met Office an injustice.

Cheers

Dave R

[Jethro_uk]

It's a double-whammy, as both the BBC and Met Office have to push the AGW agenda to keep in with their paymasters.

[David]

Yep - comprehensively wrong!

Coming down like stair rods at the moment and flash bangs all over the place.

I'll give the Met Office this one; they certainly got it right.

Very localised flooding (puddle on lawn) but I expect some people are having all sorts of fun.

Haven't seen rain like that for years, and then it was in NZ and Oz.

Cheers

Dave R

[charles]

The BBC doesn't do its own weather forecasting. It uses the Met Office one.

[Jethro_uk]

My point ... it's a marriage made in heaven ...

[The Natural Philosopher]

Hasn't rained a drop here all day.

'localised' is right

[michael adams]

And so unlike the apparently uneasy relationship existing between parts of your brain and your mouth and fingers.

Paymasters ?

Global spending on oil and gas exploration in 2017 could fall below this year's $40

"Overall investment will at best match 2016 year's spend of around $40 billion, and may yet fall further," said Andrew Latham, vice president of exploration at Wood Mackenzie.

That compared with a 2014 peak of $95 billion.

as against US

" Federal funding for climate change research, technology, international assistance, and adaptation has increased from $2.4 billion in 1993 to $11.6 billion in 2014"

and the EU

"Research and development on climate change adaptation is financed through Horizon 2020[2], with 35% dedicated to climate-related research. The Council having approved a ?63 billion budget for 2014-2020,"

So thats 35% of ?63 billion/6 - or around ?3.5 billion p.a.

Which is so miniscule in comparison, that its hardly worth converting

So that's around $15 billion max

So that's a spend of between $40 billion and $95 billion annually for big oil just on exploration

And an annual spend of around $15 billion in both the US and EU on research for the paymasters who according to you and your fellow shills are the ones who are dishing out all the bribes.

Of course, if you can find a lower figure for oil exploration budgets and a higher one for climate change research funding please feel free to post them on here along with links.

michael adams

...

[bert]

Do the BBC still use Met Office forecasts or did they change recently?