Carpenter or Computer Operator?

[Robert Green]

Alan Blinder, a Princeton professor and former Federal Reserve vice chairman, says it won't be surprising years from now if a carpenter in the U.S. earns more than a college-educated computer operator. In fact, the data suggest that education bears little relationship to jobs that are vulnerable to offshoring, he says.

On balance, Blinder says, "there's little doubt a college education is a good investment for most students."

But he offers this advice: "Don't train yourself or your children [in work] that a computer can do or a smart kid in China or India can do. Because that's ferocious competition."

[norminn]

Gee, let's send all our addicts and convicts on probation to India for rehab and retraining...full scholarships.

[gfretwell]

Computer "operator"? That is not a particularly skilled job. Was he thinking "programmer". Even so, I agree, there is a guy in India that will do that for $40 a day. The internet has made it such that it doesn't matter whether your cubicle is down the hall or half way around the world. Halfway around the world is cheaper.

[Percival P. Cassidy]

It's not even China or India we have to worry about now. Some of the Taiwanese companies that set up factories in China because wages were rising in Taiwan are now moving production to Vietnam, where wages are lower still and the exchange rate to the US$ is more favorable. E.g., FoxConn (which I understand makes the iPad for Apple) now has factories in Vietnam.

Employment, like water, flows downhill -- to the place that has the lowest-paid sufficiently qualified workers.

Perce

[Tony Hwang]

Hi, No doube blue color trade people has jobs all the time no matter what. comp. operators are dying breed.

[notbob]

Lying dirtbag piece of pond scum!

Just like politicians and big business have allowed exportation or H1-B visa displacement of high tech jobs, there is intentionally no control of illegals flooding across our borders to replace blue collar workers. Carpenters and most construction workers are still making under $15 an hour, the same as they did 30 yrs ago. Semi-skilled workers are being replaced just as quickly as skilled and high-tech workers.

Has India or China created any new technologies? Is there really any creative innovation happening in those mono-cultural countries? Hell no. No ipads, no hybrid cars, no green revolution. No Apple or GM. No biotech or medical breakthroughs.

Anyone who thinks the power elite in this country isn't doing everything it can to keep the masses ignorant is living in a fools paradise. Our only recourse is education. Other countries are still sending their kids to this country to be educated, yet our own leaders are trying to discourage us from seeking higher education. That treasonous bastard ought to be flogged around the fleet!

nb

[aemeijers]

Guess what? Carpenters will also have to BE computer operators at some point. Especially free-lance 'jack of all trades' guys doing remodels from plans provided on disk or e-mail. (Go to any boutique kitchen shop, and see how they do designs and takeoffs.) Production wood-working machines, like at a mill, already are sort of like cad-cam machines. Jobsite tools will likely be that way soon. Some basic level of computer literacy will soon become a basic requirement of ALL jobs, just like reading, writing, and basic math did a century ago, when many blue-collar jobs were held by functional illiterates.

[John Gilmer]

I suspect "carpenter" was mentioned because that's the trade most "white collar" types think about.

The "money" trades are: electrician, HVAC tech, and plumber.

Mechanic is close up there.

Painters, dry wall workers, rough and finish carpenters, and roofers are a step above the grounds keepers and common laborers.

Actually, a very high portion of the foreigners "educated" in the US try very hard to get employment here.

The key is whether you (or your kid) is "college matrial."

If the kid is literally, "Mensa Smart," he is college material even if he is a tad on the lazy side.

If the kid is willing to work hard and got very good grades in HS, then he is college material.

The rest really should look at careers that don't require college and try to get a running start on life ahead of their peers. (Insurance and real estate don't require college, for example.)

Kids who are reasonably bright but don't like school and CAN work hard should look into going into business for themselves. Most of the "tradesmen" mentioned above can, if they have the ambition, become independent contractors.

[norminn]

Computer operator is an archaic term...my grandkids operated computers at age one: turn it on, navigate to their games or insert CD :o)

[Robert Green]

The point is that skilled trades are the last thing to get exported because it's not practical to have someone in New Delhi fix your plugged up sink. Not until they develop cheap teleportation like Star Trek. In the current market, having a BA in English is likely to get you a job slinging burgers.

The worst part of all this is kids are starting their careers $50 to $100K in debt for a college education from a named school. Unless they go to Wall Street, there's no way they can pay that loan off in this economy. It's just another in the row of dominoes that is falling over that used to be a vibrant national economy.

-- Bobby G.

[gfretwell]

These days a journeyman Electrician card can get you a job cutting lawns. In case you haven't noticed, the building business is dead in most places.

[serebel]

Okay, now that we heard from the paranoid section.

[Douglas Johnson]

I don't know. I retired as a computer programmer about 5 years ago. I got an apprentice electrician card so I could volunteer for Habitat for Humanity. I get lots of cold call job offers based on that card.. Not as much money, but I could certainly stay busy.

-- Doug

[cubby]

The trades may be the last thing to get exported, but who's to say they won't be exported? Modular home construction, in huge warehouses in cheap areas of the US, is already taking off. It's not a huge leap to imagine that happening in China. Sure, it will take a few weeks for your home to arrive, but if you can get it for half price?

[David Nebenzahl]

On 6/15/2010 7:41 AM cubby spake thus:

Even so, houses still can't be plugged into their foundations as if they were giant Lego pieces. You still need skilled trades to pour foundations and slabs, run electric service, plumbing, etc.

Unless you're suggesting that all these tradespeople will somehow come in a package with the house from China or India. Maybe compressed into one of those gigantic plastic bags that you hook your vacuum cleaner up to. Presto! instant crew.

[gfretwell]

The HOA here pays a guy $45 to mow a 1/4 acre lot. It takes him about

20 minutes on a lawn tractor. Are you getting more than that?

In Florida work is still pretty slow for all the trades. Guys who used to hollar out the window of their truck in broken espanol are now holding the shovel. It did cut way back on the illegal immigration problem tho. It turns out Americans will do those jobs.

[Douglas Johnson]

Nah. I don't make anything. I was just mentioning I got lots of offers. I don't take any of them.

Ironically, the local Habitat decided to contract out their electrical work instead of using volunteers with apprentice licenses supervised by a real electrician. Times is hard when you get laid off from an unpaid job.

-- Doug

[Mysterious Traveler]

>

Lets send all criminals to China to do prison time and re-education and see if they want to re-offend. It's bound to be cheaper than what it cost in the U.S. and I'll bet we get better results.

[Dean Hoffman]

Liability issues?

[gfretwell]

Most of the Habitat work here was done by pros anyway. (Usually contributed by contractors for the tax write off) They would have the volunteers on the weekend, get some TV time and photo ops, then the pros come in on Monday and build the house.