OT ? Solar panels Will they get cheaper?

[wig]

Hi all,

I am looking into solar power. I have found that the UK grant syste which has been going for 2 years or so, has been severely cut back thi year.

Now they give a max of

2,500GBP for Bolt on systems, (panels bolted onto roof) 3,500GBP for integrated systems (means roof tiles that are covered wit solar cells).

These figures are from memory and so may be slightly innaccurate.

You also have to have an accredited installer, which doubles the cos of installation, than say for example you were to do the work yoursel (not very difficult) and then have a professional check it and do th final "grid connect" bit.

A typical 2KW system would cost around 11,000GBP for parts. The VAT o this alone would be 1640GBP, When you take into account the amoun charged (by accredited companies) for labour, it's easy to see that th so called Government grant just about covers the VAT. So they (th Government) aren't actually doing anything to help.

If I was in charge, I would abolish all VAT on renewable energ products, e.g. solar panels, wind turbines & inverters etc. And the I would allow people to install the equipment themselves or in any wa they wanted, such as using a local builder. Then in order to get grant of 50% of the cost of materials I would require that th installation was checked over by an "accredited engineer" and that if grid connect was to be done that this engineer would do that bit. O top of this I would introduce a scheme where the electricity companie had to pay you about 35p/Kwh produced, and the electric companies coul reclaim from the government about 20p of this amount.

I got the 35p idea from Germany where I don't think there is an installation grant available but they buy back the electricity at abou

35p/KWh

France is giving 40% the cost of materials and buying the electricit at 2 - 3 pence per KWh above the rate of the cost of supply. I thin you need an accredited installer in France too.

In Britain, the Electricity companies used to pay 1/3rd of the cost o supply for your generated electricity! so they used to pay about 3p/KW . Today there is atleast one electric company who has started buying i for the same cost as they charge for supply. I don't know if the othe companies are still only paying 1/3rd of the cost.

Anyway, that's the background information for you. Now I was wonderin what you think the future will hold? Because I cannot afford to go sola but I would like to.

A BP (British Petroleum) BP7175s Solar panel 175W Max power outpu (14% efficiency) (1590mm x 790mm) one of the most efficient panels o the market, currently cost about 800 GBP inc VAT

Will they get cheaper do you think? I would like to see this costin about 200GBP.

And an inverter, 2,500W capacity currently cost about 1,800GBP. Can' they make them any cheaper than this

-- wig

[wig]

Or more efficient? I understand the high cost is due to the cost o

silicon, so what is the future for the cost of silicon

-- wig

[Steve Firth]

Upwards.

[Steve Firth]

Not unless the price of oil falls drastically or there's a revolution in techniques for producing photovoltaic panels. It takes a lot of energy, a lot of waste and a lot of skill to make a PV panel. That's why they ar expensive. Opinion varies on the exact costs and the amount of fuel that does into making a panel but th ebest guess is that a PV panel possibly just pays back the energy that goes into making it over its lifetime.

The cheapest solar panels I have seen were priced at £5k for 2kw. Which I consider quite a decent price, £2.50 a watt. My current (ha ha) ambition is rather lower down the scale and I have just bought a 40W panel for experiments at £3 per watt. I can't see these prices shifting much over time, other than upwards.

Having said that, these prices are considerably lower than they would have been five years ago.

I'd like to see Black Sheep and Pinchinthorpe beers in my local for

3p/pint. We're both unlikely to see our dream realised.

[Mike]

There are printed solar cells being developed which don't use silicon wafers at all. But this is currently mostly at university/first start up stage so don't hold your breath.

[doozer]

I think that it is unlikely we will see a significant reduction in the price of PV's in the near future for two reasons:

1) PV cells aren't actually all that good at converting light into electricity. While you might feel like you are doing some good by using a renewable form of energy in actual fact the PV cells probably only just pay for themselves, energy wise, over their lifetime. Without a good pay back in terms of energy there just isn't a good reason to invest in them. There are some interesting developments though in the nano-technology arena that look like they might make PV cells more useful. 2) PV cells require very high purity silicon which coincidentally happens to be what computer chips need. At the moment there is a world shortage in silicon production. Loads of people want computer chips which means that PV cell manufacturers are having a hard time buying silicon at a reasonable price. It takes upwards of 5 years to get a new silicon refinery up and running and no one is building one at the moment.

[Ian Stirling]

As the raw material is in such short supply.

[bigcat]

wig wrote: Re: OT ? Solar panels Will they get cheaper?

PV panels are not worth implementing in >99% of cases. Theyre only useful for remote locations eg spacecraft. The energy payback is ok, but the cost is outrageous. Of all the alt energies talked about, PV will give you the least bang per buck, ie the least energy output per dollar.

If you want solar panels, go with flat panel space heating, and forget PV unless youre in the middle of nowhere. FPSH can get you orders of magnitude more energy payback than PV.

NT

[Mike]

Asked an industry expert about this today :

"The shortage is in polysilicon, not silicon wafers per se, although without polysilicon, you can't grow the silicon ingots. Solar is the problem. In the past, solar wafers used crap poly - it was cheap and did the job. IC wafers in contrast need the besy poly man can make. Then the solar guys suddenly discovered efficiency improved dramatically if you used better quality poly, so now even solar wafers need decent stuff.

Capitive IC wafer manufactures don't have a problem (i.e. the big 4) but the rest of the industry does."

[Rick]

You are far too sensible to be in charge

[Ian Stirling]

Plus, IC makers couldn't care less if the price of a square centimeter of chip is a few pence. (well, their profit margins might be very slightly squeezed) but for solar panel makers, where that would multiply their costs many fold, it's critical.

[wig]

Ha ha lol, thanks, even if you were being sarcastic.

Mike, thanks for your info too.

Wig

-- wig

[kchambers]

I don't understand how the concept of paying a premium for "renewable" generated electricity works (practically and sustainably). Why pay more for something that is supplied whenever the sun decides to shine rather than when it is needed. Practically speaking it will be NECESSARY to pay the premium to sources which are available on demand i.e. gas. Otherwise there is no incentive to build capacity to meet peak demand. We will end up with somewhat more capacity than peak demand when the sun is shining and the wind blowing but way-way less than peak demand when these elements don't co-operate.

I'm not against renewable energy, I just don't see who is going to pay to install generating capacity which only gets used when the wind and sunshine decide not to co-operate. i.e. would need to be paid a huge premium on what they actually generate or get a fixed payment just for being available. Has this been factored into the supposed cost of wind, wave and solar electricity as we increase reliance on these sources?