We went shopping for a medium sized petrol / diesel hatchback about 8 years ago. The dealer tried to switch sell us a new self charging (regenerative braking, etc) hybrid then because he claimed the "Total cost of ownership" was cheaper than a petrol or diesel. We eventually decided on a 7 seater diesel for cash about a fortnight before diesels were re-branded the spawn of the devil (doesn't really bother us, if things go as planned it will be worth as much as it's petrol equivalent when we part with it)..
Phasing out of fossil fuel powered cars and replaced with electric vehicles
phasing out of gas, oil and coal boilers to be replaced by air source or ground source heat pumps.
Both of these require electricity.
Does anyone have any figues as to:
the total energy in kWh annually that is consumed for gas/oil/coal powered space heating
the total energy in kWh annually that is consumed for diesel/petrol/LPG powered vehicles?
the totasl energy in kWh that is consumed currently in the electric national grid?
This then leads to my questions:
What increase in electrical power as a % is going to be required on the nagional grid to support the extra demand to power electric vehicles and space heating?
How will we generate the extra power required?
To what extent will the national grid infrastructure have to be upgraded by to support the extra power sources and increased power demand?
The CCC and National Grid among others have some ideas: see e.g. the former's "Carbon Budget" and the latter's "Future Energy Scenarios". Bear in mind there are lots of explicit and implicit assumptions about reduced demand from e.g. improved insulation of homes, less use of private cars, less consumption of meat
Average EV car Battery capacity 30kWh/100 mile range and an average annual mileage of
8000 miles requires approx 2,200kWh/annum.
32.5 million registered cars in the UK = 8GWh, 365/24
Average gas consumption 12,000 kWh/annum Assume GSHP 1kWh in = 5kWh out Replacing gas with ground source heat pump 2,400kWh/annum
29 million homes in the UK = 7.9GWh, 365/24.
But, GSHP will be unsuitable for many homes and air sourced will be fitted. Most space heating is required in the 4 to 6 months around winter time and not for 24 hours a day so for heating the extra load will be greater for shorter periods, possibly peaking at 30GWh for most of the day during winter months.
At least double the current demand during the winter? And when the wind doesn?t blow and the sun doesn?t shine all of this has to come from back-up.
All the authorities need to do is look at your odometer. It really isn't that difficult. There could even be a transponder like those already used in some countries for road charging.
increased consumption of vegetables requiring fertiliser made of energy intensive fixed nitrogen?
(You DO realise that Veganism is imply another minority fad taken up by the food industry because its much CHEAPER to feed people non meat products? So they can charge the same and make more profit)
The grid needs about a 3:1 upscale to do everything we do with fossil fuel with nuclear power. If you insist on renewables make that 6:1
It is not clear that in terms of the chemical industry we *can* replace fossil fuels - coal and gas are great reducing agents. Ok we COULD use hydrogen, but instead of CO2 we put out water vapours, and excess oxygen.
The whole reneable thing is designed by ArtStudents? so its a total f****ng buggers muddle
(somewhere!). Click on 'Energy Consumption in the UK (ECUK) 2020'. Also here
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The simple answer is that we would have to increase generating capacity by a factor of somewhere between 2 and 3. Whether the infrastructure would need significant upgrading is unclear. It can at present cope with peak demands of approaching 60GW, so it should be able to cope with that on a semi-continuous basis, although local upgrading may be necessary in places. Until recently, and maybe still, we couldn't bring all the wind-generated electricity down from Scotland as there weren't the power-lines of sufficient capacity to carry it. TPTB may have improved it by now.
The extra power can only come from Nuclear. Renewables are just a distraction to pacify the greens and Mrs Johnson. They'll never produce anything like the amount of power needed, and they're unreliable so you'd have to have backup, which would have to be nuclear. If you're going to build nuclear, why waste money on unreliable renewables?
'What about batteries?' I hear someone say. They may be OK for short-term peak-lopping, like when the TV adverts come on and the country goes into the kitchen to make a cuppa, but as a national electricity storage system for anything longer than an hour or so, forget it. Remember that in the dark days of winter, when it's cold, electricity demand is high and there's often a 'blocking high-pressure system' over Europe, resulting in little or no wind blowing anywhere, renewables will be generating next to SFA for several days, even a week or so. An example of that was at the end of Feb and beginning of March this year, wind was generating less than 5GW, solar between 0 and 1GW and imports from Europe via interconnects, around 2GW, out of a total electrical power demand of about 30GW. Without those nasty fossil fuels and nuclear, we'd have been in deep shit. Data from Gridwatch
Sorry, a bit busy at the moment and ICBA to go searching, but my recollection is that David MacKay's book contained a lot of these sort of figures, not too far out of date.
No. But I do realise the CCC aren't so daft as to envisage (let alone promote) veganism. What they do is envisage a reduction in total meat and dairy consumption. (35% less meat in their 6th Budget.)
Source?
The CCC 6th Budget had on electricity generation "The range for demand across our scenarios is 550-680 TWh in 2050, compared to around 300 TWh in 2018."
Possibly - but a good few of the people with "Arts" degrees I worked with would have noticed that the CCC et al don't envisage we'll simply replace energy from fossil fuels but look for a reduction of c.600 TWh. (Which will of course be bloody painful for most.) What's assumed in your figures?
By the way, do you reckon that the rest of the CCC have a hold over people like Keith Bell, Paul Johnson and Michael Davies* or do you count them as more of your "ArtStudents"?
*Keith Bell is a co-Director of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC), a Chartered Engineer and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh.
Paul Johnson is Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and a visiting professor at University College London (UCL).
Michael Davies is Professor of Building Physics and Environment at the UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering (IEDE).
I suspect all tney did was tick the boxes that indicate what they should have done. The checks you have listed take a few minutes and can be done while engine is warming up to temp before doing an emissions test or while waiting for the oil to drain. QED They should be done as apart of the service and not become chargeable events unless they have to change a bulb or adjust something.
The motors, reduction gearboxes and drive systems of EV cars contain bearings and fluids and probably only have a design life of about 7 years. There is also an electric pump for the braking system, just like diesel cars need and this won't last for ever. Eventually the cost of repairs could exceed the residual value.
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