Christmas lecture

One assumes that the RI have input into these decisions as they have a direct interest in the quality of the output

Which as you say has been poor this year. Reviews in another place are uniformly poor.

Though back to my original point, he did, in the third lecture, tell us about future ideas that are being worked on - a three fold improvement in Lithium technology probably 10 years away.

Not enough, not quick enough, to meet (worldwide) government aspirations to have 100% electric car sales by 2025.

I hope that I am still alive to see them back track on this. It is wholly predictable.

tim

Reply to
tim...
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After government subsidy and some other discount that I can't make sense of (there's mention of battery rental, but no costs stated)

basic full OTR price is 26,000 and that's with the battery pack that's only good for 80 miles (in real use), 30 grand for 120 miles.

My estimate of 40 grand was for a car that was capable of at least 150 miles, *in real use*, (and I don't consider even that sufficient for mass take up)

why wouldn't you

unless you are one of the rich!

The cost of a battery to achieve 300 miles is the same whatever car you put it in (the extra weight of a slightly larger car is insignificant in this calculation)

claiming that as it's a "city" car it only needs a range of 100 miles isn't valid as everybody needs to do the 300 mile trip once in a while and a car that can't do that for you is useless as your main car.

To be mass market all cars have to have a battery capable of 300 miles (in real use)

(though I suppose there is a possibly of renting secondary batteries for a single trip, but that will impinge on the luggage load)

the problem here is that liquid fuel is used for other things

why should those other uses have to pay more to meet this electric car "dream"

the costs are all in the battery

there is no sight of the costs falling

There is a second mass market for batteries where size/weight doesn't matter and only cost is an issue. That of home (or network) storage. And even with that opportunity, costs aren't falling.

I'm not sure what you are saying

to be clear, they are spending pots of money (billions) on *development* of electric cars

tim

Reply to
tim...

No it doesn't Dave. It costs whatever it costs. All that subsidies do is move some part of the cost from A to B, typically with a view to hiding it and making the item appear cheaper (when in fact it is not).

In short: the cost to society is not altered by subsidies.

Reply to
Tim Streater

So why aren't these scientists explaining to politicians that their aspiration of 100% electric cars/vans/lorries is unachievable.

To get mass take up of electric cars you have to have a range of 350 miles (in real use), a residual value after 5 years (so the initial battery needs to be useful for 10) with base models (still with that 350 range) selling for under 15 grand (today's money).

At the moment we have electric cars that don't have the range for main family cars and that are too expensive for second cars.

If we are never going to break out of that circle the sales for electric cars are never going to exceed 10%.

And yet, worldwide, politicians ARE expectation to cast the IC engine to history by 2025.

And I won't even start on how they expect people to charge up at home with planning rules that allow developers to build hundreds of houses on an estate with only communal parking.

tim

Reply to
tim...

You can't expect someone to subscribe to a general magazine on the off chance that a specific article will appear

AKA Wonkypedia

Of course not. It just happened along. I wasn't waiting for it.

tim

Reply to
tim...

Quite a few rail locos still use diesel, too. The cost of electrifying all the railways lines is going to be horrendous.

Reply to
charles

At least 3 times a year, I have a requirement for a 400 mile, one day, journey - each way.

One space per household round here. Even if the family has 2 cars - needed when public transport doesn't run at weekends and not after 5pm (or before

10am)
Reply to
charles

In fact, the overall cost is likely higher. Subsidies are inefficient.

Reply to
Huge

And in really rural areas, 25,000 people with no mains electricity.

I wonder how long it will be until a child is killed by someone taking the cover off a lamp-post to get a free charge for their car with some croc clips.

Owain

Reply to
spuorgelgoog

Edit - 25,000 properties, 75,000 people.

formatting link

"They generate their own electricity from a £30,000 wind turbine syste m that feeds a bank of batteries and they have a diesel generator for back- up."

Wonder where they'll get their diesel from when all the petrol stations hav e been turned into sausage roll shops.

Owain

Reply to
spuorgelgoog

They'll be using diesel generators!

Reply to
charles

but unlike electric cars

the capital and maintenance costs of operating electric trains is less than for diesel

Over a 40 year life-time the savings on the total costs of ownership of a fleet of electric trains pays back the costs of electrifying the line (well it did before unreasonable H&S pushed up the costs of electrification by

300%)

tim

Reply to
tim...

as there is round here

but it isn't the same space, and if you aren't one of the first 3 people back home the next free space isn't always convenient.

So it's impossible to put in a charge point that is fed from my electricity meter, which means that it will have to be commercially operated and charged for

tim

Reply to
tim...

Overhead electrification often requires bridges to be rebuilt - or it did on the East Coast line. That is presumably why the government has put a stop to the proposed GWR electrification.

>
Reply to
charles

That is probably a nearly honest prediction to my mind

Exactly.

Reply to
The Natural Philosopher

The teaching programmes were scrapped (Mike Pentz anyone?) but several series and individual programmes are sponsored or produced in cooperation with the OU each year.

Reply to
F

The point here being that unreliable intermittent energy is more expensive than reliable fossil or nuclear electricity even before you add the storage...

Limited range BEVS or hybrids. No one is spending billions on long range EVs.

The battery technology ain't there.

Reply to
The Natural Philosopher

In reality the cost to society is always INCREASED with subsidies.

Cost effective technologies don't need subsidising.

Reply to
The Natural Philosopher

Along with worldwide government aspirations to have

World Peace by 2025

To end poverty by 2025

To end homelessness by 2025

and in the UK to finalise the details of Brexit by 2025

All bullshit IOW

HTH

Reply to
Moron Watch

That's often simply to give an aura of enhanced respectability to Michael Moseley type programmes. Not that there's necessarily anything wrong with those as such. He's done a number on lifestyle topics, diet, exercise regimes etc using himself as a guinea-pig.

Years ago such features wouldn't have seemed out of place on say "Blue Peter" or one of the early evening magazine programmes - "Tonight"or "Nationwide". While those who tired of "Farming Today" at 6 am. could switch on the telly instead and watch some bod with a beard and a fairisle jumper, standing in front of a whiteboard banging on about about vector spaces and eugen values.

Reply to
Moron Watch

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