Even in So. Calif coastal, where it's usually mild, we're not
having much winter. Garden things are happening out of season.
For example, the leaves haven't even finished falling off my Wisteria,
when a few blooms already appear.
And my Cape Jasmine is flowering up a storm, way ahead of time.
I usually prune roses late January, so went ahead and did it,
but had to remove a lot of lovely, lush new foliage.
Any other "early" stories out there?
Lost three roses last year (mid-Northern Ontario) because we had an
early spring thaw February/March that lasted three weeks - just long
enough to persuade the roses it was time to start setting buds. Then we
had what used to be normal March weather, a couple of weeks of around -5
to -10C overnight, with mostly below freezing days, too.
The really scary thing about climate change is that the models predict
that a climate flip or turnover sould happpen in less than a century.
That is, some reasonable sets of inputs into the models predict very
rapid climate changes, others sets (only slightly different) predict
slow changes. But we don't know enough about the present climate to be
able to say which sets of input assumptions reflect reality. So we're
stuck with guessing. We could have a mostly tropical planet by 2100. But
the ecosystems can't adapt that fast. So ---
Upstate NY, zone 5:
My composter was frozen solid in early December, and full to the top. Now,
it's defrosted, and volume has reduced by half. I've never seen this happen
by January. Parsley's growing again, and a few crocuses have sent up
sprouts. They'll survive when frost returns, but I'm worried about some of
Here in W Pa the temperature is 60 and has been exceptionally warm mos
of the winter. We consider this a plus and count the days until Marc
when the temperatures won't go below 25. Although global warming my b
responsible for this warming trend. Global warming is a very seriou
happening and is not considered important by most governments, as the
are only concerned with big business and not changing their way o
polluting. Money talks, unfortunately
Yeah, they remind me of the ol; Ostrich...head-in-the-sand...Here in the
wilds of WA. State, several Robins showed up last Tuesday. I have never
before seen them here this early. It's usually near the end of February
before they show up!
Janet, I amend my comments to include governments not taking globa
warming important to the US, Russia, China, and India. Although
believe Russia has signed on to the treaty, it will be decades befor
they make much difference in their polluting
That's the US-govt fake excuse designed to justify their ostrich
stance to Americans. Taken from from the same
dusty-irrational-make-believe-justification shelf as " Saddam Hussein
had it coming because he was responsible for 9/11."
Global warming will actually make winters colder. Rising temperatures
will melt the ice caps, releasing fresh water into the ocean. This will
decrease the strength of the gulf stream, which is what brings warm air
from the equator up to the northern hemisphere during the winter. New
England and Europe are going to be hardest hit. In general, global
warming makes everything more extreme.
Here in Philadelphia, December was fairly cold, but this January,
temperatures have often been in the 50s, and it seems to make it to 60
once a week. My tulips and daffodils have already started coming up.
I love gardening too and have to laugh sometimes at the unscientific posts
that occur here at times. Some type of "global warming" caused the last
great ice age to recede too. How the heck did that happen? AND was it a
Major climate change has been a fact of life since the beginning of time on
earth. The difference now is the rate of change. No fossil record or core
sample we have ever found shows such a rapid change in temperatures over one
century as we have just experienced or such a huge measurable increase in
atmospheric carbon dioxide. During every major climate change, there were
major die offs of species - and many of those species had several thousand
years to adapt. It takes no special scientific ability to predict that with
more rapid climate change those die-offs will happen much faster and will
affect many more species. Can an earth which might lose 1/4th of all its
species support 6 or 7 billion humans? Not likely............In fact, it's
quite possible that we might join the ranks of the species who die-off, or
die back to small numbers. Just imagine if global warming were to assist the
spread of some sort of incurable plant disease to the grain family
(graminaceae) - how long could the human race survive in numbers without
wheat, rice, corn, oats, barley, rye, millet, or any other grain to provide
storable calories? Unfortunately, the climate change which fossil fuel
burning initiated might now be irreversible. In other words, even if we
stopped burning oil and coal tomorrow, the climate would probably continue
to warm for several centuries according to some models. I hope those models
are incorrect. Unwittingly at first, and now, with more knowledge available
to us but not acted upon, stupidly we have fouled our own nest.......
There's nothing unscientific about this. Lots of studies have been
I'm not talking about another ice age, just weather patterns in the
northern hemisphere. The summers, like the rest of the world, will be
incredibly hot, but a weakened Gulf Stream will result in colder
If one 5 C warming was good, does that necessitate that another 5 C warming
will also be good? What definition of 'good' are you using?
The reason for the last glacial termination is one which offers little good
news. Milankovitch cycles (small variations in the earth's orbit on tens of
thousands of year time scales) have driven ice age cycles for the last 2.5
million years. For the last 700-ish ky, this has meant ice ages of something
like 100 ky duration, emphasis on the 'something like' as it's plus or minus
about 30 ky, depending on how the multiple cycles line up with each other.
The spans between major advances in northern hemisphere ice have been
something like 10 ky -- with similar variation (particularly long interglacial
about 400 kya). That has lead to the sound bite of 'we're due for an ice
age so _should_ be putting more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to ward
it off'. The thing is, that's false. To the extent that Milankovitch
cycles are the control, we're due for another particularly long interglacial,
with another 50 or 70 ky to go :
Ledley, T. S. "Summer solstice solar radiation, the 100 kyr ice age cycle,
and the next ice age", Geophys. Res. Letters, 22, 2745-2748, 1995.
... for areas of the northeastern Atlantic. The global picture is more
consistently for heating, even in winter.
Robert Grumbine http://www.radix.net/~bobg/ Science faqs and amateur activities
notes and links.
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