Given the global downturn comparatively over the last number of years
there's undoubtedly _capacity_; whether there's any current surplus
sitting around in inventory it's been long enough that I'd doubt if
there's a lot but I've not seen any actual data.
Certainly when the rebuilding gets into high gear there will be at least
intermediate shortfalls locally if not globally and costs are virtually
certain to go up on speculation if nothing else. Of course, w/ the
current MidEast uncertainty boosting oil prices on that basis, that'll
have an effect as well depending on how that all works out.
It caught me off guard when I heard that the demand for oil will go down
due to all of those cars that aren't going to be driving very far for a
while. Today, according to CNBC, that is offset by uncertainly in the gulf.
While perhaps that might be true, I don't know that the numbers in the
more heavily affected areas are that large a fraction of Japan's overall
numbers--seems like the numbers I've seen indicate those cities were 1M
or less whereas Tokyo alone is 30M+ (?).
I don't think we'll see any downturn in demand reflected in any
reduction in world markets on the oil front...if nothing else, any
mothballed or peaking capacity oil generation they have will probably
have to come on line to make up for the loss of nuclear generation
they're going to have for quite a long time. Different oil, of course,
and I don't know if there's any significant oil-fired capacity there to
make up the difference with, but a thought...
All in all, I'll give the nod to the speculators over reality any day at
least in the short run... :(
I wouldn't think they would want any construction of wood near the
shoreline, after seeing the videos of houses carried away.
Need some dead weight that doesn't float and a three story balcony to watch
for next time.
"Markem" wrote in message
I am very saddened by Japan's plight. That said, what does it imply
about the market for building materials (or similar)? Is there adequate
supply to meet their upcoming needs?
The walls constructed for tsunami's failed in a very large way.
The correct thing to do is stay 3 miles from the coast with houses.
Japan has had MANY major licks with earthquakes and the resulting tsunami.
They always build right back on the edge of the big water.
On 3/14/2011 4:29 PM, Josepi wrote:
My heart goes out to the people that have suffered loss.
I noticed in the financials that several of the larger publicly traded
construction contractor company's stock has gone up. I don't know
about materials shortage, but they're going to need a lot, and they
have very little in natural resources. How much did materials cost go
up post-Katrina? There's going to be a great danger if they don't
carefully inspect the stuff coming from China.
Some people see a lot of money to be made in new construction and
rebuilding. The cleanup will provide job opportunities for years to
come. I see an excellent opportunity for recycling. There's an
*enormous* amount of debris created when the tsunami came onshore. A
lot of this can be recycled back into construction materials.
I had the same thought this morning. Entire villages are gone. I read
that it will be years before things resemble anything normal. Given
the current problems with the reactors, not sure if many people would
want to live in certain areas anymore.
Japan is a very resourceful country. I'm sure they will take their
time in building anything. However, there are LOTS of people
who don't have a home anymore. Where do they go?
In Japan, they have very specific requirements for lumber, so they tend
to buy raw logs. Top grade raw logs. There are a large number of loggers
on the Pacific Coast drawing unemployment, so yes there is capacity. The
problem will come when the saw mills in Japan find themselves at
For the first time in many decades (1950s was the last time) Japan may
import pre-cut lumber. The mills that get the contracts will have to
have really good quality control.
Expect that hotels in Japan will be hard to come by for the next 12
months, as the government uses them for temporary housing. Also expect
that empty apartments across the country will be put to use.
It will be a long difficult time for Japan to recover, but they will.
Don't expect to be offered a job in Japan rebuilding, the rules to work
in Japan are very tough.
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